Lookout Landing - Mariners Grab Joe Saunders On One-Year ContractMariners baseball support group meets here, Tuesdays and all the other days too.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50775/ll-fav.png2013-02-20T11:05:49-08:00http://www.lookoutlanding.com/rss/stream/37299272013-02-20T11:05:49-08:002013-02-20T11:05:49-08:00Mike Carp Traded for Whatever
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<p>woo</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">This morning the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Mariners</a> finished off trading potentially useful players — that they designated for assignment to make room for less potentially useful, older, players — for sacks of meh. They accomplished that burdensome task by offloading <span>Mike Carp</span> to the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Boston Red Sox</a>. For what, you probably want to know. Not much. Not much of anything.</p>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Mariners">#Mariners</a> send Carp to <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23RedSox">#RedSox</a> for PTBN or cash. Kalish to 60-day DL.</p>
<div style="text-align: justify;">— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/304245197146034176">February 20, 2013</a>
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<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Mariners">#Mariners</a> have list of 4 players they're looking at as PTBL in Carp deal. All lower level non-premium minor leaguers.</p>
<div style="text-align: justify;">— Geoff Baker (@gbakermariners) <a href="https://twitter.com/gbakermariners/status/304283096457543684">February 20, 2013</a>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">Oh man, get excited!</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Feel the excitement!</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Are you excited?</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Get excited!</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Get excited on a bike!</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/20/4009646/mike-carp-tradedMatthew2013-02-12T16:27:47-08:002013-02-12T16:27:47-08:00Saunders (Joe) Officially Signed, Mike Carp DFA'd
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<p>A <span>Mike Carp</span> and <span>Shawn Kelley</span> trade for... something, anything, sure would be nice.</p>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Mariners">#Mariners</a> officially sign LH <span>Joe Saunders</span>. Mike Carp designated for assignment to make room on 40-man roster.</p>
— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/301487050329292801">February 13, 2013</a>
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/12/3982374/saunders-joe-officially-signed-mike-carp-dfadMatthew2013-02-08T12:42:02-08:002013-02-08T12:42:02-08:00Saunders' Contract Reportedly $6.5M + Incentives
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<p>Ken Rosenthal tweets:</p>
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<p>Source: Saunders one-year deal with <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Mariners">#Mariners</a> is for $6.5M. Can earn additional $1M in incentives. Mutual option for ‘14.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/300021528618233858">February 8, 2013</a>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">A $6.5 million base salary for just one season would be an excellent deal for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a>. As <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/7/3965722/joe-saunders-is-jason-vargas-not-literally" target="_blank">pointed out yesterday</a>, Saunders is a close replica of Jason Vargas, who will be making $8.5 million in 2013 and he was constrained by arbitration.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/8/3968630/contract-details-emerging-between-saunders-and-marinersMatthew2013-02-07T17:49:41-08:002013-02-07T17:49:41-08:00Joe Saunders, You've Seen Him Before
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<img alt="Remember when Joe Saunders and the Orioles beat Yu Darvish and the Rangers in the Wild Card Playoff?" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7kGNZa-aTykkZ6vqJMCLoHAhC6A=/0x52:4000x2719/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/7832047/20121005_pjc_sh5_515.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Remember when Joe Saunders and the Orioles beat Yu Darvish and the Rangers in the Wild Card Playoff? | Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>Figuratively.</p> <p style="text-align: justify;">It's an easy comparison to make. To note that <span>Joe Saunders</span> will basically fill the spot that Jason Vargas left in the rotation. They are both softer-tossing lefties around 30 years old. The very mention of either one of their names could cause instant boredom even in the midst of an exciting roller coaster ride or helicopter chase scene. Speaking of, there should be more helicopter chase scenes in movies.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Their pitch repertoires, though they don't align perfectly, are similar.</p>
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<td style="font-size: 15px;" align="center"><b>Jason Vargas</b></td>
<td style="font-size: 15px;" align="center"><b>Joe Saunders</b></td>
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<td id="chartVargas">chart</td>
<td id="chartSaunders">chart</td>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">Vargas relies primarily on his changeup, which is a quality pitch across the board. He backs it up with basically three various forms of a fastball. Saunders is essentially Vargas in reverse. He throws fastball after fastball at about the same speed as Vargas does and features his changeup behind the fastball instead of in place of it.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">It's not just the pitches that are similar. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8044&position=P#pfxplatediscipline" target="_blank">They share</a> about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4366&position=P#pfxplatediscipline" target="_blank">identical pitching paces</a>. And their core results are very close as well. Here are <a href="http://www.statcorner.com/pitch.php?id=450306" target="_blank">Vargas </a>and <a href="http://www.statcorner.com/pitch.php?id=434578" target="_blank">Saunders </a>compared from 2009-12 as starters.</p>
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<th align="left">Pitcher</th> <th align="center">BF</th> <th align="center">K%</th> <th align="center">nB%</th> <th align="center">GB%</th> <th align="center">xHR</th> <th align="center">Swg%</th> <th align="center">Cnt%</th> <th align="center">Zone%</th> <th align="center">RAA</th>
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<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="left">Saunders</td>
<td align="center">3304</td>
<td align="center">13.4%</td>
<td align="center">7.4%</td>
<td align="center">43.8%</td>
<td align="center">23</td>
<td align="center">44%</td>
<td align="center">86%</td>
<td align="center">47%</td>
<td align="center">-10.4</td>
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<tr onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" bgcolor="#FFFFFF">
<td align="left">Vargas</td>
<td align="center">2882</td>
<td align="center">14.3%</td>
<td align="center">6.4%</td>
<td align="center">38.5%</td>
<td align="center">29</td>
<td align="center">46%</td>
<td align="center">83%</td>
<td align="center">50%</td>
<td align="center">-10.6</td>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">The xHR and RAA columns are on a per-800 BF basis. What you see backs up what their pitch grades should tell you. Vargas is better at avoiding contact, but he hasn't actually transferred that into a big strikeout advantage. Saunders also walks a few more hitters but he's clearly superior when it comes to controlling batted balls and keeping them from being potential home runs. Because of that, the two have graded out as very similarly-skilled pitchers over the past few seasons. Over 2010-12, they have nearly identical total fWARs.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If you want a reason to be hopeful about getting something better than 180-innings of below average but not catastrophic performance, you can turn to Saunders' 2012 year, which was noticeably better.</p>
<table style="text-align: justify;" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" border="1"><tbody>
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<th align="left">Pitcher</th> <th align="center">BF</th> <th align="center">K%</th> <th align="center">nB%</th> <th align="center">GB%</th> <th align="center">xHR</th> <th align="center">Swg%</th> <th align="center">Cnt%</th> <th align="center">Zone%</th> <th align="center">RAA</th>
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<td align="left">Saunders</td>
<td align="center">745</td>
<td align="center">15.1%</td>
<td align="center">5.3%</td>
<td align="center">42.1%</td>
<td align="center">24</td>
<td align="center">46%</td>
<td align="center">85%</td>
<td align="center">47%</td>
<td align="center">-1.4</td>
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<tr bgcolor="#FFFFFF" onmouseout="this.bgColor='#FFFFFF'" onmouseover="this.bgColor='#C7D9EC'">
<td align="left">Vargas</td>
<td align="center">887</td>
<td align="center">15.5%</td>
<td align="center">6.3%</td>
<td align="center">40.8%</td>
<td align="center">33</td>
<td align="center">45%</td>
<td align="center">82%</td>
<td align="center">49%</td>
<td align="center">-7.4</td>
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<p style="text-align: justify;">Depending on the terms of the contract, and the actuality of the contract being signed, this could end up really making the trade of Vargas to the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> for <span>Kendrys Morales</span> more of a win for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a>. Remember that Jason Vargas is on a one-year contract for $8.5 million. If the Mariners were able to deal away Vargas and then essentially sign a pseudo-Jason Vargas for the same price as Vargas would have cost, then they essentially lost nothing and gained Kendrys Morales.</p>
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/7/3965722/joe-saunders-is-jason-vargas-not-literallyMatthew2013-02-07T17:19:36-08:002013-02-07T17:19:36-08:00Mariners Get Themselves A Joe Saunders
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<figcaption>looks pleasant | Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
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<p>We've known for a while that the Seattle Mariners really needed at least one other starting pitcher. We've known for a while that the Seattle Mariners were getting linked in rumors to free-agent starter Joe Saunders. On paper, it was a fit, but I was less than enthused, for two reasons:</p>
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<li>oh my god boring</li>
<li>Saunders reportedly wanted a three-year contract</li>
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<p>Well you can forget about number two. I mean, maybe Saunders <i>did</i> want a three-year contract, but he isn't signing a three-year contract -- instead, according to reports, he's signing a one-year contract, with our very own Seattle Mariners. Bullet hole number one still applies, but a one-year contract is a heck of a deal. Even without knowing what the one-year contract is actually worth.</p>
<p>I remember reading a week or two ago about how the Twins had an offer out to Joe Saunders, and they were waiting to hear back. I doubt the Mariners blew away the Twins' offer, so it's possible Saunders just prefers Seattle over Minnesota and wherever else might've been expressing interest in his services. It's nice to feel wanted. Even if you only feel wanted based on suspicions and relative to the Twins, who project to be absolutely dreadful.</p>
<p>I'm going to assume that Saunders will be guaranteed a modest sum of money. In a year, or less than that, he'll leave, unless he's successful enough to bring back. The immediate consequence is we no longer have to look at a starting rotation depth chart with Hector Noesi in or near the top five. Now -- assuming Saunders is happening -- we have this:</p>
<p>Felix Hernandez<br>Hisashi Iwakuma<br>Joe Saunders<br>Erasmo Ramirez<br>Blake Beavan <br>The prospects<br>Casper Wells<br>Hector Noesi</p>
<p>The immediate benefit is a better rotation. A side benefit might be Saunders' major-league experience rubbing off on others. And because this is just one guy, and because the commitment is so small, no one's been blocked. If one or some of the prospects take steps forward, room can be made. The assumption right now has to be that the prospects require more seasoning, necessitating a non-Noesi import. This is a contract that might have as much to do with other players as it has to do with the player signing the contract.</p>
<p>Now, ordinarily, when I'm writing about a player, I have tabs open to his Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs pages. I have neither tab open right now for Joe Saunders, and I am writing this entire post without consulting or confirming a single statistic. Some might consider this irresponsible; I consider this impressively efficient. Who have the Mariners gotten in Joe Saunders? Saunders is a left-handed starter who's probably...30 or 31 or 32 years old. You might remember him for being one of them annoying Angels, before he disappeared by playing for the Diamondbacks. I don't think there was a team in the middle, and Saunders ended last season with the Orioles, having a hand in their defeat of the Rangers in the Wild Card playoff.</p>
<p>Saunders doesn't throw a whole lot of strikes, nor does he miss a whole lot of bats, nor does he generate a whole lot of grounders. The only thing Joe Saunders does exceptionally well is be Joe Saunders, which he does like a motherfucker. The whole package is non-literally unremarkable, and Saunders does enough things just well enough to keep from being embarrassing. He's comfortable as a #4 and from time to time he can look like a true #3. As I recall he's much better against lefties than righties, so he'll have his platoon issues. He's essentially replacing Jason Vargas, and Vargas could pitch to righties because he had that changeup. Saunders doesn't have that sort of weapon, so righty-loading a lineup can expose him.</p>
<p>I didn't think Joe Saunders would be available for a one-year contract, but maybe he likes playing on the West Coast, and maybe he likes the idea of pitching in Safeco, even if it's going to be a new, adjusted Safeco. It probably won't be <i>bad</i> for his career, and soon he can go right back on the market. He's probably not about to pitch the 2013 Seattle Mariners into the playoffs, but as a guy who looks nothing at all like Hector Noesi, I'm happy to have him for the time being. Saunders is dull, and dull is less fun than exciting, but Noesi is the wrong kind of exciting, so, if I may:</p>
<p>exciting > dull > Noesi-exciting</p>
<p>Please welcome the newest Seattle Mariner we're never really going to want to talk about. Here comes Joe Saunders, professional baseball pitcher. He'll be okay.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2013/2/7/3965742/joe-saunders-rumors-seattle-mariners-statsJeff Sullivan