Lookout Landing - Mike Napoli Officially A Not-MarinerMariners baseball support group meets here, Tuesdays and all the other days too.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50775/ll-fav.png2012-12-03T10:52:16-08:00http://www.lookoutlanding.com/rss/stream/34555872012-12-03T10:52:16-08:002012-12-03T10:52:16-08:00Mike Napoli Signs With Not The Mariners
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<p>From the beginning, the Seattle Mariners didn't seem like a great fit for Mike Napoli as a free agent. The Mariners are in need of a bat, sure, but ideally they'd find a bat with better defense and some capability of playing the outfield. Still, the rumors had to be taken seriously, because the Mariners formally met with Napoli, and because Napoli was being pursued only by the Mariners, Red Sox, and Rangers. Now we don't have to think about it anymore. Now Napoli has signed with Boston for three years and $39 million.</p>
<p>Napoli supposedly wanted a four-year contract, but he didn't get it. Napoli supposedly wanted to remain a catcher, but he's not going to. It's almost as if players don't always get exactly what they want, and it's almost as if the offseason is a time for the spread of misinformation within baseball rumor circles. Presumably, if the Mariners truly wanted Napoli, they would've had to outbid the Red Sox, so I'm perfectly comfortable with them not exceeding these terms.</p>
<p>I would've had something on this up sooner, incidentally, but I'm currently sitting at the actual winter meetings, and it's way harder to get work done here than it is alone in the quiet bedroom of my quiet apartment. I don't understand how people think with so much background chatter. Maybe they don't. Maybe that's the whole problem with modern sportswriting. Maybe Miguel Cabrera won the American League MVP award over Mike Trout because the voting sportswriters couldn't properly collect their thoughts. "Triple Crown" is all they could think, because that was the first thought to occur.</p>
<p>With John Jaso around, Jesus Montero around, and Mike Zunino nearly around, the Mariners have long looked like they could use a part-time, defensive-minded, right-handed catcher. Someone easy to move out of the way. Napoli didn't fit that description, and Russell Martin didn't fit that description. The Mariners could conceivably do anything* but I expect that they'll get a low-profile catcher and that their high-profile acquisition -- should they make one -- will play somewhere else. A regular catcher is not something they need, and first base is a position without a lot of clarity.</p>
<p><i>* except sign Mike Napoli or Russell Martin</i></p>
<p>What are the Mariners going to do this week and beyond? I don't know yet. You don't know yet, and I bet the Mariners don't know yet. Several different paths are possible. The various Napoli paths are no longer among them. Oh no, or, thank goodness. Or, somewhere in between.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/12/3/3722912/mike-napoli-seattle-mariners-contractJeff Sullivan2012-11-25T20:29:49-08:002012-11-25T20:29:49-08:00What We Know About Mike Napoli
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<p>Let's just come out and acknowledge the way that most of us probably feel: the Mariners will suck, because the Mariners just suck, and it doesn't matter who the Mariners acquire, because whoever the Mariners acquire will just end up sucking. It's completely stupid and completely irrational and yet we can feel justified in our pessimism because holy shit the Mariners have sucked for a while and sometimes it's satisfying to preemptively wallow. One of the players who might suck as a Mariner is free-agent Mike Napoli, to whom the Mariners have been linked. With any reasonably high-profile free agent, there can be a lot of misinformation, so I thought it would be worth going over what we know about the Napoli sweepstakes real quick.</p>
<p>First, the Rangers didn't extend to Napoli a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer. That does not mean the Rangers can't attempt to re-sign Napoli; that means the Rangers weren't sure if Napoli could get a similar or better offer from someone else.<a target="_blank" href="http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2012/11/23/mariners-interested-in-mike-napoli/"> Now, Ryan Divish</a>:</p>
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<p>While the blog says he will meet with the Mariners, Napoli has already in fact met with the Mariners earlier in the week.</p>
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<p>Moving on:</p>
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<p>Confirmed: Red Sox management and ownership met with Mike Napoli this weekend according to a major league source.</p>
— Nick Cafardo (@nickcafardo) <a href="https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/272816333404647426" data-datetime="2012-11-25T21:37:37+00:00">November 25, 2012</a>
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<p><a target="_blank" href="http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/2012/11/daniels-talks-continue-with-napoli.html/">As for the Rangers</a>?</p>
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<p>Texas Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said on Friday the “lines of communication remain open” with free-agent catcher-first baseman Mike Napoli.<br>[...]<br>As is the case with outfielder Josh Hamilton, another of their high-profile free agents, the Rangers are letting Napoli explore the market before having definitive talks with him. The sides are likely to get together during the winter meetings.</p>
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<p>I don't know what it means to say the lines of communication remain open -- I guess the Rangers and Napoli aren't yet screening each others' phone calls. The Rangers will presumably get some opportunity to do something before Napoli commits elsewhere. The thing about the winter meetings reads like a guess, but the winter meetings are nearly upon us, so I suppose don't expect Napoli to make a decision this coming week. No need to hurry.</p>
<p>So the above are pretty much all facts. Now for a couple other things:</p>
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<p>Mike Napoli determined to get 4th year...waiting on Red Sox or Rangers to blink (Mariners still in it)</p>
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/272783293341106176" data-datetime="2012-11-25T19:26:19+00:00">November 25, 2012</a>
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<p>Just spoke to Mike Napoli. Stuff being leaked isn't even things he and his agent have discussed. Don't believe everything you read</p>
— Jen Royle (@Jen_Royle) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jen_Royle/status/272028707382763520" data-datetime="2012-11-23T17:27:52+00:00">November 23, 2012</a>
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<p>The second comes from someone who's also a personal friend of Napoli's, and while I don't know what it refers to, it could be the speculation that Napoli insists on four years, or it could be the speculation that Napoli insists on catching. I don't know what else has been leaked. There was one report that the Mariners have already made Napoli an offer, and maybe that's wrong, but if an offer hasn't been made yet, an offer will probably be made sometime soon. You don't meet with a player and then not make any attempt to actually sign him. I think. I don't know, I've never GMed. Maybe the Mariners just wanted to know what kind of music Mike Napoli is into. (Country. There's no way it wouldn't be country.)</p>
<p>Odds are fairly good that the Mariners sign Mike Napoli, if only because so few teams appear to be seriously interested. I am not saying that the Mariners are the favorites, and I have no way of knowing whether the Mariners are the favorites. I can't imagine that they would be, since Napoli would probably like to play for a good team, and he has no reason to believe the Mariners are good now. He's also a Florida guy and it doesn't get further from home, in major-league baseball, than Seattle. If I had to guess, the Mariners would have to healthily out-bid the Red Sox, in terms of money or more probably years. I don't get the vibe that the Rangers are desperately hoping to bring Napoli back, but I'm sure there are terms they'd find agreeable, so the Mariners would have to out-bid those, too. I haven't even considered the possibility that another team or teams get involved.</p>
<p>Nowhere in here is a stated judgment on the wisdom of giving, say, four guaranteed years to Mike Napoli. I don't know if it would take four years, and if it did, I don't know how much those four years would cost. I have been more excited about other free agents in the past. I have also been a lot less excited about other free agents in the past. If nothing else, there is presently a variety of players who might become the next Mariners acquisition that sucks a lot. I can hardly stand to wait.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/11/25/3691560/seattle-mariners-rumors-mike-napoliJeff Sullivan2012-11-23T13:14:11-08:002012-11-23T13:14:11-08:00Seattle Mariners, Mike Napoli Now Dating
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<p>So far this offseason, we've seen the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Seattle Mariners</span> linked to <span>Josh Hamilton</span>, but we haven't heard about an active pursuit. We've also seen the Mariners linked to <span>Nick Swisher</span>, but we haven't heard about an active pursuit there, either. But <span>Mike Napoli</span> is just out of a two-year relationship in Texas, and he's single and looking to mingle. The Mariners? The Mariners are lonely and intrigued.</p>
<p>Let's trace this rumor all the way back to the beginning.</p>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23mariners">#mariners</a> have reached out to russell martin & mike napoli. also looking at corner OF bats.</p>
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/266914629568036864" data-datetime="2012-11-09T14:46:21+00:00">November 9, 2012</a>
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<p>Mike Napoli holding out for 4th year from <span class="sbn-auto-link">Red Sox</span>...meeting with Mariners who might be willing to give the extra year according to sources</p>
— JIM BOWDEN (@JimBowdenESPNxm) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/271720957520015360" data-datetime="2012-11-22T21:04:59+00:00">November 22, 2012</a>
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<p>If the Red Sox really are interested in signing free agent Mike Napoli, they appear to have competition from the Seattle Mariners.</p>
<p>According to an industry source, Napoli is scheduled to meet with the Mariners, who likely would utilize him primarily as a catcher.</p>
<p>(<a target="_blank" href="http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2012/11/23/source-mike-napoli-reportedly-pursued-by-red-sox-set-to-meet-with-mariners/">Scott Lauber</a>)</p>
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<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23mariners">#mariners</a> are definitely on mike napoli. other teams in mix include red sox & rangers.</p>
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/272072658097680384" data-datetime="2012-11-23T20:22:31+00:00">November 23, 2012</a>
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<p>So much of the rumor-mongering this time of year just smells like total speculative bullshit. Here there seems to be a little more substance, and while the Mariners might meet with any number of free agents in the coming weeks, this does look to be an indicator of interest. The Mariners will already be aware of what Mike Napoli is looking for, so it appears there's a willingness to meet him somewhere in that financial neighborhood. If Napoli were priced out of the Mariners' range, the Mariners probably wouldn't really bother.</p>
<p>So we should talk about the vitals. First of all, Napoli is newly 31 years old. He's been almost this age for a while, but now he's exactly this age, and he's getting older literally every minute of every day. He's rumored to want a four-year contract, and it wouldn't be a cheap one. He's rumored to prefer catching over DHing and playing first base. His seven years in the majors have been spent with the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Angels</span> and the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Rangers</span>, and, for a few days one January, the <span class="sbn-auto-link">Blue Jays</span>. He is very familiar within the AL West. I don't know if that is a factor or a complete non-factor.</p>
<p>Since Napoli broke in back in 2006, he's posted the same wRC+ as <span>Travis Hafner</span>, <span>Matt Kemp</span>, and <span>Hanley Ramirez</span>. His numbers in 2012 were well down from his numbers in 2011, but his numbers in 2011 were mittens-on-dick insane, and he still drew his walks and hit for his power. In fact, 2012 Mike Napoli was more normal Mike Napoli. The Mike Napoli the season before probably isn't ever going to show his face again.</p>
<p>Napoli is not considered a good defensive catcher by anybody. This is the guy who was forced to split time with <span>Jeff Mathis</span>, and pitch-framing research doesn't hold him in high regard. He's not so much a catcher as he is a guy who's capable of catching. The whole first-base thing gives him some flexibility. Even if he wants to catch now, he probably won't be catching a whole hell of a lot longer.</p>
<p>There are, I think, two ways that people might respond to the Mike Napoli/Mariners rumor. They are:</p>
<p><b>(1) </b>All right, the Mariners need some dingers!</p>
<p><b>(2) </b>Napoli has those old-player skills. A four-year contract now would be a disaster -- he's going to break down.</p>
<p>As far as #1 is concerned, yes, Napoli would provide for the Mariners some thump. He is a power hitter who looks like a power hitter, and who whiffs like a power hitter. Even as Napoli ages, it's unlikely that he'll lose his ability to hit home runs often enough for it to be remembered that sometimes he hits home runs.</p>
<p>As far as #2 is concerned -- I'm guessing this is what would be the consensus response if the Mariners were to sign Napoli for four years. A 31-year-old catcher with an unathletic body who walks, strikes out, and goes deep? It just <i>feels</i> like Napoli doesn't have very long to go. <span>Richie Sexson</span>, remember, came apart at 32. Sexson and Napoli are not dissimilar hitters. I'm not going to deny that this is my most prominent feeling right now. I'm not in love with the idea of Napoli for four years. But maybe Napoli wouldn't require four years, and also, we have to remember about the uncertainty. When people criticize free-agent contracts, oftentimes they come off sounding overconfident. We don't know. We never know, and we think we know better because can identify "old-player skills," but that doesn't mean nearly as much as we wish. We are a species that absolutely sucks at telling the future, yet convinces itself over and over that it's able to tell the future.</p>
<p>Let's take something hypothetical. I don't know, four years, $50 million. Sure, whatever. Signing Napoli to that contract would carry X% odds of not working out well. It would have Y% odds of working out okay, and Z% odds of working out fantastically somehow. A lot of people would overestimate the magnitude of X. It's not that X isn't a good possibility. It's that X isn't the only good possibility.</p>
<p>And hey, all right, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/10/13/4332362/rangers-reliever-adams-scheduled.html">reason to be foolishly over-optimistic</a>!</p>
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<p>Left-hander <span>Matt Harrison</span> underwent Lasik eye surgery Thursday. Catcher Mike Napoli will do the same next week. Napoli is also headed toward free agency.</p>
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<p>I don't know exactly how Napoli would fit with the Mariners. He doesn't need to be platooned, but I should hope that the Mariners wouldn't relegate <span>John Jaso</span> to the bench. I don't know where the Mariners stand, privately, on <span>Justin Smoak</span>, and I don't know who else the Mariners are looking to add to the offense. That would all become more clear over time. For now, here's a new Mariners rumor for you to overreact to. Black Friday seems like an appropriate day for general overreaction.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2012/11/23/3683090/seattle-mariners-rumors-mike-napoliJeff Sullivan