Lookout Landing - 40 in 40, 2018Mariners baseball support group meets here, Tuesdays and all the other days too.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50775/ll-fav.png2018-02-23T10:00:02-08:00http://www.lookoutlanding.com/rss/stream/166042432018-02-23T10:00:02-08:002018-02-23T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Nelson Cruz
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<img alt="Chicago White Sox v Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/53YjGd3N3rmFmoHrye5m-vsFhSo=/0x0:5184x3456/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58797431/686486430.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Gracias, Nelson</p> <p id="FuiRg4">Dear Nelson,</p>
<p id="T1Zy34">These internet letters are pretty cheesy, huh? At first we were going to just include videos of the 126 home runs you’ve hit in a <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> uniform, but that really might have shut this whole site down. So instead we’re doing this. Don’t worry, we’ll keep it brief. </p>
<p id="Hk4f4K">You said you wanted this team, our team, to win a <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a>. There’s nothing we can do to help you with that. That’s on you, and Robbie, and Félix, and Kyle, and the rest of the crew. But we promise to be with you every step along the way, with signs, and chants, and cheering that echoes across the Sound. You haven’t been a Mariner for long, but you’ve left your mark on this team and this city. You took some of the weight that laid heavy on our King’s shoulders and hefted it onto your own back; you brought solace during <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2015.shtml">dark times</a>, and kept us <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWeVXWovAD8">in the game</a> more times than we can count.</p>
<p id="4k0WuE">We don’t need to tell you that Seattle is far away from the rest of the baseball world - you have dealt with that distance firsthand - and, partially because of that, our team is rarely in the national spotlight. You helped to push Seattle baseball into the national conversation. It’s impossible to ignore 450+ foot home runs.</p>
<p id="WUhidT">We’ve already talked about your <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/mariners-reportedly-sign-nelson-cruz/">contract</a>, the way you’ve already been well worth the money, both <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/9/14/12921728/appreciating-nelson-cruz">statistically</a> and <a href="https://www.lavidabaseball.com/seattle-mariners-latino-leadership/">emotionally</a>. We’ve <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/9/13/12910876/the-sound">marveled</a> at your strength, and <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/9/8/16271246/nelson-cruz-has-been-strugglebussin-when-mariners-need-him-most-plz-help">worried</a> when you dared to look mortal. We’ve heaped our <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/12/2/7318611/narratives-be-damned-the-mariners-got-their-guy">hopes, and dreams, and years of frustration</a> upon you, and you lifted us up as best you could. </p>
<div id="MbHlD9"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u_Qj7CPh9G8?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="762tPp">This may be your last season in Seattle. We hope it’s not, but in the meantime all that’s left to say is thank you.</p>
<p id="iTpQKE">Thank you, Nelson, and good luck this season. We’re all rooting for you. We always will.</p>
<p id="KXV6lJ">Mariners Fans</p>
<p id="ZmQPZy">*** </p>
<p id="J3de2R">Estimado Nelson,</p>
<p id="5roVTp">¿Las cartas de la internet son muy casioso, verdad? Primero nosotros íbamos a incluir todos los videos de su 126 jonrónes en un uniforme de Los Marineros, pero habría cerrado nuestro sitio web. Entonces, estamos haciendo eso. No te preocupes, lo mantendremos breve.</p>
<p id="9FOv0E">Tú lo dice que quieres ganar el Serie Mundial con nuestro equipo. No hay nada que podemos hacer para ayudarte. Este es la responsabilidad de tú, y Robbie, y Félix, y Kyle, y todos los otros compañeros de equipo. Pero prometemos estar con usted cada paso del camino, con letreros, y los cantos, y aplausos que hacen eco través del Puget Sound. No has sido un Marinero por siempre, pero dejas huella en este equipo y este ciudad. Tomaste algo del peso estaba sobre los hombros de nuestro Rey, y ponlo en tu espalda; trajiste consuelo durante <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2015.shtml">los tiempos malos</a>, y <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWeVXWovAD8">nos mantuve en el juego</a> más veces que podemos contar.</p>
<p id="Q8mPZh">No necesitamos decirte que Seattle es lejos del resto del mundo del béisbol - has experimentado eso - y, parcialmente porque eso, nuestro equipo raramente está en el centro de atención. Has ayudado a empujar el béisbol de Seattle entre la conversación nacional. Es imposible ignorar jonrones que son más de 137 metros.</p>
<p id="oJ34Ef">Ya hablamos sobre su <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/mariners-reportedly-sign-nelson-cruz/">contrato</a>, como ya has valido el dinero, tanto <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/9/14/12921728/appreciating-nelson-cruz">estadísticamente</a> como <a href="https://www.lavidabaseball.com/seattle-mariners-latino-leadership/">emocionalmente</a>. Nos hemos <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/9/13/12910876/the-sound">maravillado</a> de tu fuerza, y hemos <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/9/8/16271246/nelson-cruz-has-been-strugglebussin-when-mariners-need-him-most-plz-help">preocupado</a> cuando te ves normal. Ponemos nuestros <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2014/12/2/7318611/narratives-be-damned-the-mariners-got-their-guy">esperanzas, y sueños, y años de frustración</a> en ti, y nos levantaste lo mejor que pudiste.</p>
<div id="RISqW0"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/u_Qj7CPh9G8?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="nGqOHP">Este puede ser tu ultima temporada en Seattle. Ojalá que no, pero todo lo que podemos decir ahora es gracias.</p>
<p id="RTJWZ2">Gracias, Nelson, y buena suerte con esta temporada de béisbol. Todos te estamos animando. Siempre lo haremos.</p>
<p id="JSp1Eq">Los fanáticos de los Marineros</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/23/16993090/40-in-40-nelson-cruz-marinersIsabelle Minasian2018-02-22T10:00:02-08:002018-02-22T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Dan Vogelbach
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<img alt="Seattle Mariners Photo Day" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Vi8pjHJmgSx2SiqNGBrc8OEL9as=/0x1348:4293x4210/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58779899/922580566.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tag yourself, I’m the blank space waiting for something to happen already! | Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The man, the myth, the legend.</p> <p id="MdPlTo">This offseason, it seemed clear from the get-go that the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> had a glaring hole at first base. So it came as no surprise when Jerry Dipoto made a move to acquire <span>Ryon Healy</span> way back in mid-November. After all, who else would we put at first?</p>
<p id="NGZd7G">And when the Rule V draft came along in December and the Mariners took <span>Mike Ford</span>, a New Jersey-educated player in the Yankee system, they were just adding some competition for <span>Healy</span>. I mean, the Mariners weren’t going to go into the regular season with <em>just</em> <span>Ryon Healy</span>, right?</p>
<p id="AWFzuU">The next idea, of course, has been to move Robinson Canó to first base and find a new second baseman. This might be a year or two down the road, sure, but you need to plan for the future eventually. Do you have a better long-term answer at first than that?</p>
<p id="HqlgnT">Well, sure. Enter Dan <span>Vogelbach</span>.</p>
<p id="OLjMCG">You probably forgot about him, didn’t you? He doesn’t exactly blend into the background, but it sure seems like the front office has basically entered him into the Witness Protection Program just a year-and-a-half since the M’s dealt <span>Mike Montgomery</span> for this squat, slugging savant.</p>
<p id="ZD7Ka7">To wit: There are precisely four pictures of Dan the Man in the photo editor from all of last season. Three of them are from Picture Day in spring training, and only one is from actual game action.</p>
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<img alt="Seattle Mariners v Detroit Tigers" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/h92V2Gw8vfP3XuBXPmEr1q2sgxE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10275761/673042882.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Apparently this resulted in a hit, but I would’ve accepted “flailing at strike three” as well.</figcaption>
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<p id="rWERa2">Vogey played in 16 games in 2017. Six came in April, when he went 2-14. One came in May against the <a href="https://www.southsidesox.com/">White Sox</a>, in which he was 1-3. And the final nine came at the close of the season in September, when the Florida native was 3-11. Not exactly the stat line of a superstar in the making.</p>
<p id="ZcrzNr">It’s strange, then, isn’t it, that <span>Daniel Vogelbach</span> has been completely and thoroughly written off by most in and around the organization. Oh, there’s an argument to be made that Vogelbach is a classic AAAA tweener, good enough to mash in AAA (and he did so last year, to the tune of .290/.388/.455 with 17 homers) but not good enough to be an MLB regular.</p>
<p id="Qgdsqh">Example A: This one guy (listed as 6’2”, 230 lbs., not too far from Vogelbach’s 6’0”, 250 lb. frame) from the mid-2000s. Let’s call him Player X. Player X hit .269/.382/.490 in 246 PAs in AAA at age 24. The next season, he mashed to the tune of .302/.378/.528 in 104 games, but just .223/.261/.385 in the majors. The year after that: .352/.428/.698 in AAA, .235/.287/.384 in the bigs.</p>
<p id="uk2mXN">Or we could use Player Y as an example; this outfielder had five AAA seasons with an OPS above .850 before he turned 30 and only 796 career major league at-bats. Clearly, both of these players are good enough to mash AAA and never quite good enough to get hits off the best of the best.</p>
<p id="BECqle">Player Y, by the way, is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/younger02.shtml">Ernie Young</a>. And Player X is <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cruz--002nel">Nelson Cruz</a>.</p>
<p id="NMyd4n">“But wait!” you cry, which is weird since I’m writing this article and none of you are in my apartment at the moment. “You can’t be saying that Dan Vogelbach is the next <span>Nelson Cruz</span>!”</p>
<p id="kv562F">He’s not. I’m sure of that. But are we really that sure he’ll never contribute to a major league ball club? We’re talking about a player with a grand total of FORTY major league at-bats. Seems to me it’s premature to count him out until he gets more than just a cup of coffee in the major leagues.</p>
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<img alt="Seattle Mariners Photo Day" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MchG7xasyXj2cR04dpxwfgW10m8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10275829/922580724.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>I know you probably don’t do this often, Dan, but that’s not how you bunt.</figcaption>
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<p id="V8KspO">I’m quite glad we’re not relying on Dan as our first baseman this season. He’s a far cry from a sure thing. Heck, he’s a far cry from a maybe thing. But he’s still just 25 years old. That’s a year older than I am, and I think I still have potential! (note: rhetorical question, please don’t answer that.)</p>
<p id="5Zg8bm">So, Dan, just keep hitting and keep plugging away and keep getting better. Maybe (probably) we’ll see you in September, or you’ll get the call-up if Healy and/or <span>Ford</span> go down. Perhaps not even then. Your stock may have fallen precipitously since we gave up our beloved MiMo for you, but you’re still a lottery ticket folded up in our collective wallet. And <em>somebody</em> has to win the lottery.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/22/17039166/40-in-40-dan-vogelbach-seattle-marinersGrant Bronsdon2018-02-21T10:00:02-08:002018-02-21T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Felix Hernandez
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<figcaption>(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)</figcaption>
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<p>The hero we never deserved</p> <p id="9RkvWp"><span>Felix Hernandez</span> made his major league debut for the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> on August 4, 2005. He was 19 years old, and at the time was the youngest MLB pitcher in over 20 years. Felix gave up one earned run over 5.0 innings pitched, and earned the loss as the Mariners fell 3-1 to the <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Tigers</a>. The Mariners put up three hits that game. <span>Willie Bloomquist</span> started at second base, and hit second. Scott Spezio played DH. Mike Morse started at shortstop. Yes, really. Mike Morse. Shortstop. The Mariners finished 2005 at 69-93.</p>
<p id="p5vpF1">Who would have thought that Felix’s very first start could potentially become career-defining? Back then, the Mariners were only four years removed from a playoff appearance and two years removed from a 90-win season. Ichiro was in his prime. Felix looked phenomenal. The future was bright.</p>
<p id="FdBQQx">The years went by, and the future didn’t look any less bright. On April 11, 2007, <span>Daisuke Matsuzaka</span> made his home debut at Fenway Park against Felix. Daisuke and his gyroball were considered to be the next big thing, and he was in the prime of his career at age 27. Felix was 21, and threw a one-hitter, spoiling Daisuke’s debut and shocking the Red Sox. </p>
<p id="S2N8ay">The Mariners would go on to choke in the final months and drop out of the playoff race after manager Mike Hargrove suddenly resigned in the midst of a seven-game winning streak.</p>
<div id="hDRiWH"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RVGuhoyQszk?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="XMI0PD">On June 17, 2008, Felix became the 13th American League pitcher in history to throw an immaculate inning, as he fanned three Florida <a href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Marlins</a> using just nine pitches. He was 22 years old.</p>
<div id="8ajw7D"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jqew9UyW62E?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="9MIDKW">Six days later, Felix had his only at-bat of 2008 against the <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">New York Mets</a>. He did this.</p>
<div id="Mdf8vt"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hi0UNUqnPBM?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="tGkBYT">It was in 2009 that Felix became a true ace. It was also in 2009 that the truly perverse nature of Felix’s relationship with the Mariners became apparent. Felix went 19-5, and narrowly lost the Cy Young Award to Zack Greinke. My lasting memory of that year, however, was bittersweet. I couldn’t find any photos or videos, but the date was July 9, 2009. </p>
<p id="5YdhpK">Felix threw 8.0 innings of three-hit baseball. He’d thrown 112 pitches and had given up one run. Going into the bottom of the 8th inning, the Mariners were losing 1-0. Felix didn’t watch any of the bottom of the eighth. I have a vivid memory of him sitting in the dugout with a towel over his head.</p>
<p id="s98HWP">Apparently, he’d said: “Guys, let me know what happens; I don’t want to see this. I can’t lose this game 1-0 again.” Four years into his career, the 1-0 loss was already a meme.</p>
<p id="6f3AFd"><span>Franklin Gutierrez</span> hit a three-run home run in the bottom of the inning and the Mariners won 3-1. Felix jumped up and was screaming with more emotion than I’ve ever seen out of a human being in my life. Other than the aftermath of The Double, I can’t remember seeing a Mariner give so much of a shit. The Mariners did not make the playoffs that year.</p>
<p id="xgu8bF">The next year, <span>Eric Byrnes</span> bicycled out of the clubhouse, <span>Cliff Lee</span> was traded three months into the year, and <span>Ken Griffey Jr.</span> fell asleep in the clubhouse. The Mariners became the first team in history to lose 100 games with a payroll of at least $95 million, and <span>Felix Hernandez</span> won the Cy Young Award.</p>
<p id="jCca0o">On August 15, 2012, Felix Hernandez faced the <a href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a> in a season already long-lost. The Mariners’ lineup featured <span>Dustin Ackley</span>, <span>Jesus Montero</span>, <span>Trayvon Robinson</span>, and <span>Eric Thames</span>. I personally cannot imagine a less inspiring situation. Felix did this.</p>
<div id="MZ8ua7"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.2493%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/H-zFYjB5Tos?rel=0&" style="border: 0; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no"></iframe></div></div>
<p id="6rC7TX">In the seven years since, the Mariners have had two winning seasons. In 2014, they came one game away from making the playoffs. Other than that, it hasn’t been close. Felix Hernandez has 51 games in which he’s pitched at least 5.0 innings, given up one run or fewer, and didn’t get the win. His career record is 160-114. If he’d spent his career on a decent team and wasn’t just now running into health issues, the man would have a legitimate shot at 300 wins.</p>
<p id="t67ulG">And it’s for this reason that I have a really hard time putting the onus on Felix to carry the Mariners this season, <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/is-mariners-starting-pitching-better-than-fans-fear-felix-hernandez-is-the-key-gm-says/">which is exactly what Jerry Dipoto is doing</a>. Jerry’s not wrong.<em> If</em> Felix stays healthy, the Mariners have a significant chance. If Felix doesn’t stay healthy, the Mariners have a marginal-at-best chance. Felix’s wasted career isn’t Jerry’s problem. Besides, I get it. The dude makes $20 million per season. It’s hard to have sympathy for the emotional toil of someone making that much money.</p>
<p id="DAsiws">But think of the last 13 years of Mariners baseball. There have been four winning seasons. Can you imagine how unbearable it would have been without Felix? What if Felix had ruptured a tendon in 2004 and hadn’t ever made it to the Majors? Would the Mariners have lost 105 games at some point? 110?</p>
<p id="yVNXQs">More importantly, how many good memories of the past decade would we have? I’ll go out on a limb and say: not many.</p>
<p id="6sxr9S">If Felix struggles, the Mariners will probably struggle. I still won’t blame Felix. He’s the reason I’ve stayed up until 11 PM to watch 100-loss teams. He’s the baseball player that has showed more emotion than any Mariner I can remember. He’s the man that has made the Mariners worth watching. He’s the King.</p>
<p id="gwzxF4">He’s still ours, and you still can’t have him.</p>
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/21/17035156/40-in-40-felix-hernandezZach Gottschalk2018-02-20T10:00:03-08:002018-02-20T10:00:03-08:0040 in 40: Chasen Bradford
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<img alt="MLB: New York Mets at Colorado Rockies" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nEreM8fdA0QJd936P8tMxSpHUek=/0x0:5087x3391/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58752955/usa_today_10194529.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>While not the pitcher acquisition most Mariners fans were hoping for, Bradford brings solid numbers that might remind you of another reliever Dipoto picked up on the cheap </p> <p id="NpHHTr">If you don’t know, <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> Twitter is a very intense place. Equal parts faithful and frustrated, they are nonetheless very dialed into their team. And Mets Twitter was <strong>not</strong> happy <span>Chasen Bradford</span>, potentially useful bullpen piece, was DFA’d. </p>
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<figcaption>From the <a href="https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/6/26/15865438/chasen-bradford-rhp-new-york-mets">comments</a> on Amazin’ Avenue’s report on the story</figcaption>
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<p id="660N3b"><span>Bradford</span> was claimed by four different teams when DFA’d, indicating the Mets at the least could probably have wrung some trade value out of the 28-year-old righty specialist who has been a steady workhorse over his entire seven-year career as part of the Mets organization. He spent 2014-2017 toiling on the Mets’ Triple-A team, posting FIPs under 4 despite pitching in the moonscape of Las Vegas and the PCL. Bradford’s K-rate might not be eye-popping for a reliever but he limits free passes and wasn’t punished too badly by the longball. In 33 MLB innings with the Mets Bradford struggled a little with walks but was able to maintain his modest strikeout numbers and limit damage when the ball was put in play, running a nice 56% groundball rate. </p>
<p id="KDfUrM">A righty specialist who has solid numbers and boasts above average spin rate but struggles against lefties? <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/19/17026852/40-in-40-nick-vincent">Where have we seen that before? </a></p>
<p id="LbvpcM">Like Vincent, Bradford boasts an above-average spin rate on his 90+-mph fastball (2250 RPM, about 100 RPM above average), as well as an elite spin rate on his slider (2620 RPM). Given these numbers, it’s a little surprising Bradford’s K-rate has hovered around 19% over his career—which was, coincidentally, Vincent’s K-rate last season—but as Bradford says, he prefers the ball to be put in play on the ground rather than getting strikeouts.</p>
<p id="xTKI2o">Also like <span>Nick Vincent</span>—at least, the <span>Nick Vincent</span> who was a Padre—Bradford currently runs some wicked platoon splits. In his MLB stint, he allowed a .312 wOBA against lefties vs. .255 for righties. He’s improved since 2015, when at Triple-A he ran a 2.40 ERA against righties vs. over 7 against lefties, but there’s still a significant split over time. Perhaps, like Vincent, Bradford will be well-served by abandoning the strategy of “pitch the away side of the plate against lefties.”</p>
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<cite>Fangraphs</cite>
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<p id="0XIYhv">Watching back one of Bradford’s appearances against a lefty-heavy <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> lineup, this tendency is especially pronounced. Bradford started Seager, Bellinger, and Peterson each off with a fastball away, and all of them laid off to immediately jump ahead in the count 1-0. When Bradford then tried to come in more on Seager, the result was a ball tattooed to deep center that almost went out. Bradford was able to get Bellinger to pop out, and fell behind Peterson 2-0 before getting him to roll over into a soft groundout. Constantly working behind batters isn’t a great way to go into any at-bat, and it limits him from being able to access his strikeout pitch, his nasty high-spin slider. Here’s an example of that working as it should, in an at-bat against <span>Chase Utley</span>: Bradford works the bottom of the zone and quickly jumps out to 0-2. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yIXS9-3AF7uKoYzIlvDCSvCHJ6w=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10261195/bradford_utley.gif">
</figure>
<p id="oufq47">He then is able to put Utley away on his excellent slider: </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EWf0rQW2lU5u4Y_p3gb1iqs7IYE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10261197/bradford_K_utley.gif">
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<p id="OiF0zF">Another appealing thing about Bradford: he has at least one option, maybe two. While he’s probably not interested in spending yet even more time in Triple-A, Tacoma is a much friendlier pitching environment than Las Vegas, and that flexibility would allow the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> to shift him between Seattle and Tacoma (something much tougher to do Las Vegas-to-NYC). At 28, Bradford isn’t chronologically young—another similarity to Vincent, he’s about the same age Vincent was when transferring away from the one MLB team he’s ever known—but with just one partial MLB season under his belt, Bradford has room to grow under Seattle’s coaching staff. It will be interesting to see if he can make similar adjustments to Vincent and blossom into a solid setup man.</p>
<p id="EamG9t"></p>
<p id="LjQRwL"></p>
<p id="70iGWA"></p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/20/17030386/40-in-40-chasen-bradford-spin-rate-workhorseKate Preusser2018-02-19T10:00:02-08:002018-02-19T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Nick Vincent
<figure>
<img alt="MLB: Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5fRWtCaSyeHVgJrpO9yukdG5Bn0=/0x0:4515x3010/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58739519/usa_today_10072429.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Traded to the Mariners for cash considerations, Nick Vincent has become one of the most valuable setup men in baseball.</p> <p id="TzTRv4">I’m part of a group message called “Ners Enthusiasts,” in which a few friends and I share our enthusiasm for the Ners. During games in which <span>Nick Vincent</span> made an appearance, which darn near felt like every other game, the mood of the chat would always shift towards a positive vibe. After Vincent would successfully navigate his way through an inning without allowing a run, we would take turns sending a series of three messages. The first would read “NICK!” The third said “VINCENT!” The middle message contained a four-letter word followed by the “ing” gerund, also in all caps with an exclamation point.</p>
<p id="LvskvH">Looking back on his incredible season, in which he posted a career-high 1.8 WAR, it’s hard to believe that the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">Padres</a> wanted just cash for Vincent. Even in San Diego, he posted FIPs below 3.00 in each of his four seasons; however, he only logged 50 or more innings of work in a year just once with the Padres as injuries cut his seasons short. Additionally, 55% of the innings he logged in San Diego were low leverage situations. Even with the production Vincent posted with the Padres, injuries shortened his seasons and he never established a role in the back-end of the bullpen.</p>
<p id="45sbwr">One reason he may have never seen a set-up role is that he <a href="http://www.ussmariner.com/2016/04/02/welcome-nick-vincent/">struggled against lefties</a> early in his career. Vincent ran a FIP north of 4.00 against lefties prior to coming to Seattle. He was incredible against righties, but a righty-specialist profile won’t earn you a late-inning role.</p>
<p id="NjyxOz">Regardless, the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> saw an opportunity to acquire a pitcher with plenty of MLB success for almost nothing. From there, they took his high spin rates and developed Vincent into one of the best setup pitchers in baseball.</p>
<p id="BNLujH">First off, they were able to turn his lack of success against lefties around, as he’s posted lower FIPs against lefties than righties in each of his first two years in Seattle, including a strong 2.72 FIP against southpaws in 2017. Early in his career, Vincent would throw his cutter in on the hands of lefties while trying to locate his fastball on the outer-third of the zone. In his two years with the Mariners, he’s shifted to pound the inner part of the zone more often against lefties.</p>
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<p id="OApoj0">As a result, lefties saw their fly ball rate nearly triple against Vincent’s fastball. Concurrently, lefties’ BABIP against his fastball has dropped .100 and their ISO has been cut in half in Vincent’s two years with the Mariners. On the outer half of the plate, Vincent’s lower velocity allowed lefties to catch up to his fastball; however, when Vincent targets the inner-third of the zone against lefties, it yields weaker contact in the air and more favorable outcomes.</p>
<p id="WQhEMg">Established success against righties and newfound productivity against lefties positioned Vincent to take on a late-inning role with the Mariners. He thrived, posting a 2.82 FIP in 64.2 innings of work. What’s most impressive about his 2017 success is that he did it with a major dip in strikeouts. His K% dropped to 19.1%, by far the lowest of his career; however, Vincent did an incredible job limiting dangerous contact. Hitters posted a hard contact rate under 24% for the third consecutive year. This helped render his high fly ball rate harmless, as he posted an impressive 3.3% HR/FB.</p>
<p id="Qi0Nri">Vincent’s low strikeout profile is unorthodox for a back-end of the bullpen arm. It’s also a bit more volatile. Vincent’s FIP rose to 4.66 in September, the highest of any month during the season, and was likely the result of a .455 BABIP. Surprisingly, fatigue doesn’t appear to be a factor in Vincent’s struggles down the stretch. His velocity on his fastball and cutter were actually slightly higher in September than in the previous months; however, a career high in appearances could have had a greater mental affect than physical. Regardless, the low sample size of just one month doesn’t spell doom for Vincent moving forward, but it does highlight the risk of running a lower strikeout rate.</p>
<p id="ZlBMSo">The 31-year old hurler’s success with a low strikeout rate relies on his spin rate, an area in which he excels. He ranked in the top 30 in spin rate for his cutter and top 100 for his four seamer last season, helping him miss the barrels of opponent’s bats and generate weak contact.</p>
<p id="xLd5GW">The Mariners capitalized on a low-cost, low-risk investment when they traded for <span>Nick Vincent</span>. He had already posted over 100 innings of Major League Baseball and had a career FIP below 3.00. Additionally, his unique high spin rate profile flashed the potential to develop into something special. Two years later, Vincent is coming off a season in which he posted the 19th highest WAR for relievers across the league. Credit Nick Vincent for his ability to adjust on the run, focusing on drilling the inner-third of the zone against lefties and emphasizing spin rate when his whiff rate dropped. Also give the Mariners front office some props for Nick Vincent. They identified a pitcher with the tools to become a reliable late-inning arm and helped coach his way into success. Helping Vincent refine his approach against lefties helped him maximize his effectiveness, and positioned him to become a dependable set up man. Now, two years later, the Mariner have one of the best in the business.</p>
<p id="BJonMs">Go M’s.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/19/17026852/40-in-40-nick-vincentLuke Mounger2018-02-16T10:00:02-08:002018-02-16T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Mike Ford
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DFqwr_0026j7KVATGaaWoCHmQwo=/67x0:925x572/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58714703/VPUHQEUWLWEVCBW.20130516175802.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>He somehow looks like an entirely different person depending on which angle he’s photographed from</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I don’t strikeout much/I am Mike Ford</p> <p id="oy60vR">Early January: sign up for <span>Mike Ford's</span> 40 in 40. Promptly forget about him.</p>
<p id="diWdQQ">Late January: look at schedule, remember <span>Mike Ford</span>. Do cursory research, write a few words. He’s a backup to, presumedly, another backup, with 115 plate appearances in AAA; he could be cool, he could flame out. It’s pretty low-risk either way. Promptly forget about him.</p>
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</figure>
<p id="syrvou">February 14: </p>
<div id="4JbV2Z">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ryon Healy, one of the <a href="https://twitter.com/Mariners?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Mariners</a>' key offseason acquisitions, has a hand injury and is undergoing tests to determine the extent. <a href="https://t.co/KuicbiUwQl">https://t.co/KuicbiUwQl</a></p>— 710 ESPN Seattle (@710ESPNSeattle) <a href="https://twitter.com/710ESPNSeattle/status/963846797574602752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 14, 2018</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="ozJZ7w">Research Mike Ford with renewed fervor. Decidedly do not forget about him.</p>
<p id="McwlTZ">February 15:</p>
<div id="rdEupl">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ryon Healy to miss 4-6 weeks after surgery on hand. Here's the latest, including what options Mariners have this spring. <a href="https://t.co/aq6Q1tj3Y5">https://t.co/aq6Q1tj3Y5</a> <a href="https://t.co/WzbgXEAJwa">pic.twitter.com/WzbgXEAJwa</a></p>— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregJohnsMLB/status/964192311193186305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 15, 2018</a>
</blockquote>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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<p id="ivGlcq">And here we are. I’ve drafted probably four variations of this piece in my head since signing up to write about Ford, each with an increasing degree of urgency. Now it’s the evening before this article is scheduled to publish and, though Ford himself hasn’t changed in that time, his situation is radically different. It’s one thing to examine a player with a minor league career .272/.380/.433 and 14.5% walk rate as a possible first baseman of the future, and it is, pardon the aggressively ideal cliche, a whole other ballgame to examine a player with a minor league career .272/.380/.433, .813 OPS, and 14.5% walk rate as a possible major league first baseman of oh-no-did-you-mean-now now. </p>
<p id="mj3OpM">This whole situation is unusual, which seems fitting because Mike Ford the baseball player is pretty weird. Mike Ford the person might be a little odd too, for all we know, but beyond the game he seems to be a pretty private person - save for the generic quotes in a handful of New Jersey newspapers there’s minimal personal presence to be found. Ford the baseball player profiles as though the Prospect Gods drank a little too much Prospect Juice and decided to smash a bunch of existing prospects into one. He was the Ivy League pitcher and player of the year, but only signed with the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> as an undrafted free agent. He’s a defensively competent but positionally inflexible first baseman, with minimal power relative to his position and walk and strikeout percentages that make you think the Fangraphs columns are playing tricks on your eyes. He’ll be 26-years-old this season and has yet to reach the majors. He’s like a baseball centaur. But a centaur with bird wings on its back, and snake scales on its legs, and the curled horns of a ram sticking out of its head, and oh yeah also a tiger’s tail. </p>
<p id="cOaiYb">The prospect comp game is nearly impossible to play. He’s a bit like <span>Justin Smoak</span> in the minors, with the sky high BB% and the general positional inflexibility, but <span>Smoak</span> had a higher K% and more power. He’s similar to <span>Carlos Santana</span>, but Santana caught for a decent chunk of his minor league career, recorded his PAs in the minors nearly a decade earlier, and was just a better player overall. He’s almost the exact opposite of RyOn Healy. You could even comp him to <span>Chase Headley</span>, if you’re feeling particularly cantankerous, but, again, Headley had a much higher K-rate. </p>
<p id="ERZt3Y">Probably his closest comparison is John Olerud, who walked a lot, struck out rarely, and hit a ton, albeit without much power. He and Ford were both pitchers, prior to their respective signings; really good pitchers, in fact. Even this comp is problematic though because Olerud played in Seattle 15+ years ago, and never recorded a game at the minor league level - after the <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> drafted him in 1989 they sent him straight to the bigs. Nowadays, at the major league level, power is an easier tool to come by (<a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/964255852537565191">fundamentally speaking</a>, of course), and I am loathe to compare a major-leagues-only player with one whose only experience has been in the minors. </p>
<p id="VX43fx">One of the greatest things Ford has going for him is his superior pitch recognition. It’s an attribute that scouts have singled out in a number of his reports, and one of the traits that is most easily translatable to upper levels; his sky-high walk rate has been consistent, and his low K% even more so. He’s not hitting homers whenever he makes contact, but he’s selective about his pitches and has an easy swing that utilizes just about all that he’s got. And when he does turn on one, watch out.</p>
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</figure>
<p id="yEcKbD">Opening Day is six weeks away, and Healy is supposed to be back from his bone spur surgery in 4-6 weeks. In the meantime, Ford and <span>Daniel Vogelbach</span> find themselves locked in an unexpected Spring Training battle for first base. If ever there was a time for the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> to run out a new style of first baseman, one with a superior ability to get on base but lacking the traditional positional power, this is it. The team looks to have a strong offensive lineup and, save for <span>Dee Gordon</span>, all their starting position players have a decent power upside. Ford could slot in in front of nearly anyone in that lineup (other than <span>Gordon</span>), and his presence would increase the likelihood of having runners on base for the more powerful hitters. Clay Davenport <a href="http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/FORD19920704A.shtml">projected</a> Ford’s next six years in Seattle, and also broke down his overall projections by percentile. If Ford were to perform in the 50th percentile of what Davenport projects, he would be a two win player. That would make him best first baseman the Mariners have seen since <span>Russell Branyan</span> in 2009. The bar could scarcely be lower, but Ford has a reasonable chance to clear it, given the opportunity.</p>
<p id="lE4xRQ">If Mike Ford is successful, and valuable, with his current skillset at the major league level, he could pave the way for a new style of major league first basemen (something that current M’s prospect Evan White might benefit from). If he flames out, well, we’ve been there before.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/16/17008612/40-in-40-mike-ford-princeton-yankees-mariners-sorry-vogelbachIsabelle Minasian2018-02-15T10:00:02-08:002018-02-15T10:00:02-08:0040 in 40: Marc Rzepczynski
<figure>
<img alt="Seattle Mariners v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zWUmjzJWhEjIwEqMN7ZOYs9mjmk=/0x0:2252x1501/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/58695271/841021008.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>c’mere you little scamp | Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The LOOGY-est LOOGY that ever did LOOGY</p> <p id="CS1AMJ">Marc Rzepczynski is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left-handed_specialist">lefty specialist</a> who sometimes also pitches to right-handed batters. I know, I know. Stay with me here. He is also...not as great as he once was at the one thing he is paid handsomely to do. Yeah, I know. I’m mad, too.</p>
<p id="hTjUM1"><a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/2/22/14696524/40-in-40-marc-rzepczynski">Grant Bronsdon</a> wrote the 40 in 40 for <span>Rzepczynski</span> (it’s that second ‘z’ that will fuck you up every time) last year and he pointed out a few things I’d like to comment on and update. Grant noted that, even last year, it wasn’t unheard of for a reliever to paid $5.5 million a year to do a specialist job. It’s becoming even more common now after the hardcore bullpenning we saw in the 2017 postseason. But, as Grant pointed out, paying a journeyman like Rzepczynski that kind of money while his career BB/9 rate was already at 4 was, and still is, a bit suspect. Hey, guess what? His BB/9 rate got worse in 2017! I’m just so shocked that something that was already bad got worse in 2017. Weird! Anyways, his career BB/9 rate sits at 4.14 now.</p>
<p id="MJkQNb">Was Rzepczynski (“Zep” to friends, “Scrabble” to strangers) deployed by Manager Scott Servais in an effective way in 2017? Not really. Did he face too many right handed batters? Yes. </p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/WKEwQRC2bvJgUIPmoQ7QvMIhYzI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10225827/rzep_splits_tbf.png">
<figcaption>per FanGraphs</figcaption>
</figure>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3JFxIEGYIWBPbbFs0k413etMUE8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10225785/Screenshot_2018_2_14_Marc_Rzepczynski___Splits___2017___Pitching_FanGraphs_Baseball.png">
<figcaption>per FanGraphs</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="cWU8Lo">83 lefties versus 54 righties. That’s not a great ratio for his skill set. Facing more than zero right handers is not optimal for Rzepczynski, but we all know that’s nearly impossible to do in reality. Particularly a reality such as the 2017 <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> where injuries ran rampant in all areas of the team, bullpen included. So, Rzepczynski had to be stretched a bit out of his optimal talent zone because of need, which is a shame. I hope against hope that the the team has both the smarts and flexibility to deploy him more correctly in 2018. </p>
<p id="pxkHij">I don’t consider myself an expert evaluator of stats or baseball performance, but I feel the need to grade Rzepczynski’s 2017 with the Seattle Mariners.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/4N1FZ1SJL2cSnvzqOlazjSWqSRw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10226329/zep2017stats.jpg">
<figcaption>per FanGraphs</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="49Ayjw">I turned to the LL staff to help me grade him out. Their responses ranged from D+ to C-, which I am inclined to agree with. However, I will cut him some slack due the aforementioned circumstances of injuries and hand him the passing grade of...</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/96aAIfB5WoQchmz77zvpHhXoFpg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10226193/c_minus_on_paper_cheating_on_test_article_072516.jpg">
</figure>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="eHIQsd">
<p id="mf8b6R">There was a particular instance in 2017 where our pal Marc was deployed correctly, but it was more because of dumb luck and circumstance than by design. I don’t think this quite sums up the <span>Marc Rzepczynski</span> experience as a Mariner, but it’s the one appearance that stuck in my mind due to its absurdity. </p>
<p id="XHHFL5">It was the 9th inning of the getaway day game on August 16 against the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a>. Rzepczynski was called in to try and hose down the dumpster fire in progress as ignited by Edwin Diaz’s two consecutive hit batters. Diaz clearly didn’t have it on this day, but to his credit, he did struggle bus his way to two outs (shoutout to <span>Leonys Martin</span> for a great catch in right field) and then exited to a fair amount of booing after hitting <span>Mark Trumbo</span> with the bases loaded and forcing in another run. The previously held three run lead was now cut down to one run. However, this shit sandwich of a half inning gave Scott Servais the perfect opportunity to let his expensive left-handed specialist come in to take a huge bite against—you guessed it—a lefty. Unfortunately, this lefty was <span>Chris Davis</span>, who despite his declining status as a slugger, actually hit left-handed pitching fairly well last season. </p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Dvoi-DFKLz5TzZpcnvpwHdDiXOI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10219423/rzep_vs_davis_sup_nerds.jpg">
<figcaption>yeah keep smilin’, buddy</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="TOxsC0">As ol’ Crush Davis smugly strolled to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs, I was filled with dread and was bracing myself for another inevitable meltdown loss. I was listening to the game while walking the dog around the park near my home after a garbage day at work. It was a gorgeous August day. The kind of day that honestly makes a Washingtonian want to cry when confronted with the memory of it in mid-January. Yet there I was, on this perfect sunny afternoon, mad as hell and cursing the name of every Mariners pitcher I could think of. I was stomping through the park, shaking my head while my dog happily pissed on every blade of grass he could possibly hit, and then, this happened. </p>
<p id="RBCKDg">Pitch one:</p>
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<p id="bQtER0">Pitch two:</p>
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<p id="nRpk0C">Pitch three:</p>
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<p id="rrbKPl">Game over. Never a doubt, right? First and only save of the season for our pal, Marc.</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GIQiHaq_YxW5YW2CHQT96SD_f9A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/10226033/Feb_13_2018_10_31_00_rzep_phew_neato_guys.gif">
<figcaption>mike: wow that was weird how you pitched really well to that left handed batter just now<br>marc: i know right</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="7qI2CA">Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but winning in baseball often requires both in varying quantities. </p>
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https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/15/16972508/40-in-40-marc-rzepczynski-is-a-loogy-not-a-loogie-thats-rudesanford_and_son2018-02-14T10:00:01-08:002018-02-14T10:00:01-08:0040 in 40: Taylor Motter
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<figcaption>Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Can Taylor Motter return to early season form in his second year with the Mariners?</p> <p id="SCHahS">The second <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Mariners</a> game I attended in 2017 was on April 11, the first meeting of a three-game tilt against the <a href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Astros</a>. The Mariners lost, but my lasting impression from that outing was <span>Taylor Motter</span> means business. </p>
<p id="jKqzZ7">He was starting in place of an injured <span>Jean Segura</span> and took full advantage of the opportunity, ripping three doubles down the left field line. He followed up his strong performance with a home run in two in the next three games. <span>Motter</span> would finish the month with five dingers, which helped support a .310 ISO and 116 wRC+. <span>Jean Segura</span> returned to action just before the start of May. At that point, it looked like the Mariners had legitimate weapon in Motter: a player who could play nearly any position and offer far more offensively than a night off for one of the starters.</p>
<p id="DDpkZ0">Motter made his money destroying pitches on the inner half of the plate. </p>
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<p id="Oqo07l">In April, 70% of his balls in play were fly balls or line drives. Additionally, he made hard contact on nearly half of his batted balls. Motter also had a tendency to pull the ball, hitting 68% of his batted balls to the left-most third of the field. Fortunately, that was a fruitful tendency, as Motter ran a 251 wRC+ on pulled balls in April. Combine his fly ball and line drive profile with the hard hit baseballs he was pulling down the left field line, and the result looks something like this:</p>
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<p id="7rWN4b">The rest of his season was a different story. Motter failed to post a wRC+ above 60 in any of the following months. His hard contact rate dropped over 20% from April to May, failing to rise above 30% again until August. Meanwhile, his groundball rate inflated to 50% or higher from June through August. Pitchers made an adjustment to Motter, pitching him low and away.</p>
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<p id="s6zUnp">Along with the negative effects it had on his batted ball profile, opponents’ new approach to Motter generated a few extra strikeouts along the way. He struck out in 23.6% of his plate appearances during the first half of the year. When he would chase pitches out of the zone low and away, he struggled to make contact. Moreover, with the Mariners struggling all over the field, Motter was ill-fittingly asked to play 1st base for a stretch, and suffered -0.4 fWAR in just 27 PAs there.</p>
<p id="bugfBx">That said, Motter seems to have adjusted to the pitchers’ adjustment, lowering his strikeout rate to 15.7% over the second half of the season. Motter slashed his whiff rates across the board, with the most impactful difference coming on pitches low and away.</p>
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<p id="mizDws">The slashed strikeout rate, however, was accompanied by a struggle to generate the power he enjoyed in the season’s opening month.</p>
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<p id="TZMmxv">Looking at Motter’s first month compared to his second half of the season, you see two polar opposites. April <span>Taylor Motter</span> focused on capitalizing on pitches in his wheelhouse, pounding inside pitches for ample power. When pitchers adjusted, his production fell dramatically. Then he adjusted back, trying to eliminate the whiffs at the lower part of the zone; however, it dampened his power when the few opportunities to hit inside pitches presented themselves.</p>
<p id="nt8JiR">This puts Motter at a bit of a crossroads heading into 2017. We’ve seen that when he focuses on his power stroke - and gets the pitches he’s looking for - he can be a formidable force; however, when pitchers avoid his wheelhouse, he loses his bite. On the other hand, when he broadens his approach, looking to make contact with pitches in all areas of his zone, he sacrifices quality contact for fewer strikeouts. Offensively, Motter will need to choose between focusing power while forfeiting contact or prioritizing contact in exchange for pop.</p>
<p id="NZIooR">As Anders <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/12/17004036/40-in-40-andrew-romine">outlined</a> earlier this week, Romine likely has a slight defensive edge on Motter, but if Taylor can unlock some of the offensive promise he showed early last year, he’ll have far more upside than Romine or Gordon Beckham. Establishing the inner part of the plate as his wheelhouse is the first step. If he can prove himself capable of doing damage, pitchers will be less likely to pitch him in the zone. Even if they avoid his wheelhouse more, if he can refine his eye to leave pitches out and away. He can see an increase in his walk rate and use his plus base running to his advantage. Furthermore, John pointed out that Motter was one of the <a href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/1/8/16847904/the-mariners-had-baseballs-most-surprisingly-unlucky-hitter-taylor-motter-xwoba-woba-babip-please">unluckiest hitters in baseball</a> last year. A retooled approach with better luck on balls in play could spell a bounce back for the 28-year-old utility man.</p>
<p id="KRidse">May the warm weather of Arizona promptly heat the bat of Mr. Motter and position him for a strong second season with the Mariners.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2018/2/14/17009752/40-in-40-taylor-motterLuke Mounger