Lookout Landing - Seattle Mariners Exit Interviews: Looking forwards and backMariners baseball support group meets here, Tuesdays and all the other days too.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50775/ll-fav.png2016-10-21T09:00:03-07:00http://www.lookoutlanding.com/rss/stream/130231632016-10-21T09:00:03-07:002016-10-21T09:00:03-07:00Final Cuts: the LL Staff Exit Interviews the Season
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<figcaption>hope springs eternal | Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>The Good, the Bad, the Disarmingly Handsome</p> <p id="96MNyN">There’s probably not a day that I don’t miss being in school. I love the rhythm of the school day, the school year: especially that last day before summer vacation, the melancholy of knowing you’re leaving another year behind mingled with the excitement of a series of warm, free days stretching ahead of you. More importantly, summer vacation provides a time to reflect and stretch into the new version of yourself; it is a time for reckoning, for tabulating, for tracking growth. With that in mind, here’s what stands out about the 2016 season in the minds of the Lookout Landing staffers, as we embark on our upside-down summer:</p>
<h5 id="L7Qe4E">David Skiba:</h5>
<p id="0yDXZP">This past season, while not over for the lucky few, still hasn't fully settled in my mind. I am unsure how to process it entirely, being honest. Maybe that's what this season taught me more than anything else: lack of processing. It's very difficult to cover a team that is in the thick of competition. It's even more difficult when the season looks lost and won four times over. I think, more than ever, I'm more disillusioned by advanced statistical measurement than ever in the climate of the current league. Teams are stealing outs with video replay in a sort of reverse-small ball. Talent is becoming harder and harder to find. Watching home runs reach a peak that makes the Steroid Era look weak while K rate keeps climbing poses a lot of issues for me.</p>
<p id="RgOkqt">I've talked to multiple people in the game that it has never before been so polarizing to watch. A 5-2 game could see all the scoring on just three swings of the bat and 20 K's between the 54 outs. I learned to trust my eye more, especially if the ball is indeed juiced. It's become more apparent than ever what swings will translate into a legit tool, now that 20 bombs feels somewhat commonplace. The way I'm seeing the game has changed a lot, and in ways that I'm still unsure of, and I hope it has for you, as well. The sort of baseball that is happening now hasn't really ever happened before.</p>
<p id="3cJRK7">I also remembered that it's really just fun to win more than you lose.</p>
<h5 id="vGReGr">Scott George:</h5>
<p id="IvwkaM">There is a song by Dustin Kensrue of Thrice when he decided to make a solo record called "Blood and Wine" and the chorus is essentially, "Once you taste blood, wine is too thin." Vampiric visuals aside, I feel like this is appropriate for the outlook of this 2016 season. We got greedy. This is the first year of this regime and I feel like a lot of us ended up pretty disappointed to miss the playoffs when we were initially going to be happy with a season over .500. I believe that I had the M's slated for 86 wins in our season prediction piece (I said I believe, don't @ me!) and there's a lot to be pleased with what we saw this year. The farm system feels like it's being rehabilitated, and turning around quickly. The major league product was very good considering the shaky pitching staff and some pretty gnarly slumps.</p>
<p id="VFy3VI">Bottom line is that there's a lot to look forward to in the upcoming seasons. I feel like this was Dipoto's first snowball being rolled off the top of a mountain and it's quickly becoming an avalanche. In a good way? In a good way.</p>
<h5 id="tyMJYy">Grant Bronsdon:</h5>
<p id="xdvfhR">More than anything, I think Jerry Dipoto defined the 2016 season. With <em>Ocean’s Eleven</em>-level heists like the Leonys Martín or Ariel Miranda trades balanced out by deals giving away Mark Trumbo and Brad Miller, the returns have been mixed. But he has undeniably put his own spin on this organization, and it’s exciting to imagine what he’ll do this offseason. I doubt we’ll see any major moves—no Robinson Canó signings or Cliff Lee trades—but Dipoto & Co. have proved that even minor tweaks can be just as effective.</p>
<p id="PPRQw1">So, in other words, I’m excited at the abundance of competence in the front office. It would be folly to attribute this all to Dipoto, as a front office is made up of many different analysts and scouts, but it is under his leadership that they have been able to shine. This team still features stars acquired during the Jack Zduriencik era, from Canó to Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, and many others (including, of course, Félix, a holdout who signed way back in 2002). And the Mariners are certainly defined by those players. But their playoff future will be determined by the Dipoto acquisitions this winter and in the years to come.</p>
<h5 id="oVnbr3">Isabelle Minasian:</h5>
<p id="t3ccRM">Two days after graduating from college, and moving three thousand miles home, I found myself sitting in a green plastic seat along the third base line at Safeco Field. It was a Tuesday night against the A’s and, despite all the changes Jerry Dipoto had made in the offseason, it seemed like the same kind of Tuesday night game against the A’s that Mariners fans have watched for years. But then, with a single swing, Leonys Martín changed the game, and my perception of this team.</p>
<p id="saXUuB"> For all the angst of June, and the agony of Game 161, I will always associate the 2016 season with some of the most purely fun baseball in recent memory. In my sample recap to write for this site I covered Adam Lind’s inexplicable (first!) walk-off against the White Sox, and I wrote about a moment of triumph becoming great enough to overshadow a period of defeat. Subsequently, rather than remember this season as another close-but-not-quite year, my memory of this team will always be shaped by the dozens of gloriously exciting moments they gave us.</p>
<h5 id="3rCfCh">John Trupin:</h5>
<p id="ie3EPL">I have not been party to a great deal of winning in my athletic career. My high school and college teams were not championship contenders. I played for a very strong select program for several years, but that has a different sensation than a team you are communally connected to. I love to win, and take no joy in losing. Baseball is just individual enough of a sport to make every moment <em>you yourself</em> could have possibly changed the outcome remain vivid in your mind, yet demands collective competence to the point that Mike Trout has only made it to the playoffs once in his six-year MLB career. Learning to handle frustration with failure while simultaneously enjoying pieces of positivity has been a lifelong process for me. It felt redundant and perhaps patronizing to write, in recap after recap down the stretch, that "this team is/was the most fun Mariners team since the early 2000s," particularly as the postseason slipped, mathematically, further and further from our grasp. Nonetheless that remains a true sentiment in my mind as much as it was at the time. This season was fun. It may not have been a success for them or for the front office or the ownership, because a significant part of their job is to create a baseball team that will win enough games to be the champion. The more basic job they have, of course, is to provide quality entertainment, and in that, they were a success. By being a more successful team, of course, it was easier to appreciate them. A playoff berth and a championship, however, are variables in the equation of baseball happiness, not the sum. They are highly valuable, and would easily be enough to produce immense joy, but they are simply a couple of many possible solutions to an equation that was undoubtedly solved this year. </p>
<p id="6P7HOV">No moment better sums up this season for me than this inning right here: </p>
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<p id="Ehv9FF">These inconsiderate bastards had me sitting in a cabin, having deleted several potential recaps already, watching for 15 innings before they finally, assuredly, had lost it. Ah well. It's early August, there's another game tomorrow at least. And what did we really expect putting this Ariel Miranda kid against that lineup? He's barely pitched at all. Might as well start writing the recap, too bad for all the LL folks I know are still at this one, extra inning losses are tou--I'm sorry Mike Zunino did what now with a runner on third?</p>
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<p id="2211V2">Mike Zunino flew out. Adam Lind outran a throw to the plate by Tyler Collins. The Mariners were a few stars and a bunch of nonsense this year, and they won this game and 85 others. I expect there to be several different position players on the roster and a number of new relievers, but there is only so much change to be made with a roster locked into its core as the Mariners are. We will sink or swim with the players that nearly lifted us into flight this year. I'm in.</p>
<h5 id="Aln1NP">Peter Woodburn:</h5>
<p id="DEZOkq">Did the 2016 Seattle Mariners meet my expectations? Honestly, pretty much as long as any future Mariners team isn’t losing 100 games, they are probably bettering my expectations. That is the result of a decade plus of drudgery and despair. As long as we aren’t at the lowest of the low, things are looking up. This year was different. This year, the Mariners grabbed me by the seat of my pants, poorly strapped me into a roller coaster I was not tall enough to sit on, set the number of laps on infinity and just went for it.</p>
<p id="tIz0Tk"> And oh boy did they (we) ever go for it. I don’t recall experiencing a season in any sport where I have felt so defeated and so elated, so often, and so separately. This team was fantastically entertaining at its peaks and enragingly stupid at its valleys. The loops and the corkscrews and everything in between made this season enjoyable in the weirdest way possible. Honestly, I can’t wait to build from all of this mess.</p>
<h5 id="ELSaaS">Kate Preusser:</h5>
<p id="mMxFoe">As someone who has studied pedagogy extensively, this year my biggest takeaway from the Mariners is how much better they got at teaching. We saw that early in spring training, with Kyle Seager and others remarking on how different clubhouse culture was under the new management. Trading out inflamed blister Andy Van Slyke for the genial Manny Acta says a lot about the quality of leadership that is prided in the organization. Also, as opposed to trying to press every player into the right-handed power hitter model, or insistence that pitchers throw with a club-approved arm slot rather than that which feels most natural to them, or completely discounting the importance of defense, this regime seems to understand how to maximize the strengths players have, which has caused an incredible turnaround in the minors. The Mariners farm is no longer regarded as the nuclear wasteland it once was, and while the players themselves deserve the lion’s share of the credit for that, the coaching staff and new hire Andy McKay were instrumental in individual players finding a new path to success. I was disconnected from the Mariners during the Jack Z era; I didn’t respect the way he ran the club or talked about players or appeared to shift blame for the club’s shortcomings onto his underlings. Dipoto’s vision for the club is more transparent, grounded in theories that are pedagogically and more sabermetrically sound, and it’s a club I feel good about cheering for, from the top down.</p>
<h5 id="RR4EAv">Ethan Novak:</h5>
<p id="m_8638362589453264417yiv1097037894yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1476923547025_16542">On August 5th, I walked through the gates of Safeco Field for the first time in over a decade. Things were different and yet, the same. There were Griffey jerseys everywhere, the scent of garlic fries evaded the crowds of people and wafted their way through my nostrils, and the sights—from the field to the backdrop to the clear, blue sky—were so stunningly perfect. Felix was on the mound. I had never seen him throw at Safeco before. The roar of the crowd as he walked to the mound sent shivers down my spine. It's one thing to watch it on television; it's another to not be able to hear your own scream because there are 40,000 other people nearby screaming with you. </p>
<p id="yKhUgT">The Mariners fell behind 3-0 in the first. I didn't care; I cheered every pitch. When Mike Zunino golfed a two-out, three-run homer off of Tim Lincecum to give the M's a 6-3 lead a half inning later, I screamed, hugged my fiancée, and had to wipe a couple tears from my eyes. Only one more run was scored the rest of the game, but I was hanging on every pitch like it was Game 7 of the World Series. When Edwin Díaz finished the game off, I vaulted into the air and into an "I don't give a fuck; I am happy" type of dance. I was home. I was in love.</p>
<p id="vDXddU">Baseball is a beautiful game. It's beautiful in its big, tie-breaking home runs. It's beautiful in its short delays as the pitching coach wades over to the mound. It's beautiful in its lemonade vendors pacing the stands, searching endlessly for thirsty patrons. But mostly, baseball is beautiful in the way it can make a 25-year-old man feel like a child again, watching his heroes take the field for the first time ever. When a red carpet was rolled out and Ken Griffey Jr. came strolling on the field for a surprise appearance, I smiled. My face broke out into the goofiest smile I've ever felt and I looked at my fiancée and my jaw dropped and for a moment I swear I was ten years old. </p>
<p id="7V7MnP">Players will come and go. The Mariners are going to win a lot of amazing games in the future. They're going to lose some heartbreakers. I will watch all of them and I'll eventually forget about most of them. I'll never forget that night, though, and I'll never forget re-falling head over heels in love with baseball. That is my biggest takeaway from 2016, and I am thankful. </p>
<p id="XVAr5S">*</p>
<p id="tvBKEx">What are you taking along with you over the lean offseason months? What player or stat or fact or moment really tells the story of the 2016 season to you, and what do you see coming in 2017? Remember, the positive side of the ceaseless march of time that imprints itself upon us, body and soul, and grinds our bones for its bread is that February will be here faster than you think.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/21/13325076/final-cuts-the-ll-staff-exit-interviews-the-2016-mariners-seasonKate PreusserGrant BronsdonDavid SkibaScott GeorgeJohn TrupinEthan NovakIsabelle MinasianPeter Woodburn2016-10-20T09:00:02-07:002016-10-20T09:00:02-07:00Jerry’s School For Gifted Pitchers: Relief Pitchers, Part II
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<figcaption>three-legged pitchers are the new market inefficiency</figcaption>
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<p>“There is a little of everything, apparently, in nature, and freaks are common” - Samuel Beckett, <em>Molloy</em></p> <p id="qCw7Ij">Deep under Safeco is a lab where Jerry Dipoto keeps his pitchers, running tests and diagnostics on them and making them watch continuously looped footage of pitchers controlling the zone, <em>Clockwork Orange</em>-style. How did the weirdest examples of his human menagerie fare in 2016?</p>
<h5 id="svakjl">RHP Dan Altavilla - Beast</h5>
<p id="sCkaVd">Dan Altavilla doesn’t pitch so much as he gives you a front-row ticket to the Shove Show. After being called up in late August, Altavilla showed why his nicknames include “Diesel” and “Animal,” exhibiting a combination of strength and ability to locate that induced a mere 16.7% hard contact rate in his brief (12.1 innings, so SSS) debut. Former Jackson teammate Edwin Díaz gets all the strikeout attention, but Altavilla showed he was able to translate his 10.32 K/9 from AA to the majors, recording ten strikeouts while issuing just one walk. Transitioning to the bullpen has allowed Altavilla, an extreme groundball pitcher, to focus on his two best pitches: the fastball and slider. His fastball has picked up considerably, clocking anywhere from 94-100 mph, and his slider regularly touches 89 or 90, the 17th fastest in the league (min. 50 pitches). The 56% swing rate on his fastball ranks 14th among relief pitchers (min. 100 pitches), and his fastball puts away batters 25% of the time, which puts him inside the top thirty. Alt is young, talented, and inexpensive, and as such, might represent the Mariners’ only attractive trade chip, so don’t get too attached. It’s too late for me, but save yourselves.</p>
<h5 id="M9gmRc">RHP Anthony “Tony” Zych - Bishop </h5>
<p id="N0YeEX">I wish there was an X-Man who was acquired for a dollar, but Bishop and his bionic arm will have to do as a comp. After spending the better part of 2016 on the DL, Zych had shoulder surgery on October 11th and will presumably return with a bionic arm next year. Bishop can also absorb energy and release it in multiple ways, which seems appropriate for Tony Zych, whether it’s the triple-digits-adjacent fastball he throws with a ton of glove-side movement (tenth among all relievers!) or his slider, which Nathan dubbed “<a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/4/18/11450302/the-great-stuff-lurking-in-the-mariners-bullpen">Satan’s Frisbee</a>.” Zych has put up eye-popping K/9 rates of 11.78 and 13.83 since he became a Seattle Mariner, and a full, healthy season from him definitely has the potential to issue a concussive blast to the AL West.</p>
<h5 id="Xr1ecx">RHP Nick Vincent - Legion</h5>
<p id="45RERB">Legion has a split personality, and so does Nick Vincent, pitcher. Back in August, Ethan <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/8/18/12523188/something-is-up-with-nick-vincent">tracked the two faces of Nick Vincent</a> and noted he had lost a few ticks on his slider. Vincent also struggled more with the long ball this year, giving up a career-high 11 home runs. He recorded 17 holds but had 6 blown saves—more than in every other pro year, combined. But Vincent’s peripherals suggest he is still an effective pitcher. In 2016, Vincent had the highest whiff rate on his fastball among all relief pitchers (min. 100 pitches), at 37.17%, and he got a tenth-best 57 called strikes on his slider, suggesting an ability to command that pitch around the edges of the zone. After an off-year last year, his walk rate rebounded to career levels (6.1%), and he recorded a career-best 65 strikeouts. If Vincent, who has struggled to stay healthy for most of his career, can control the parts of his personality that want to serve up dingers, driving his FIP up to 4.16, and increase his ground ball percentage (his 31.9% this year was a career low), he will be an effective member of the bullpen in 2017.</p>
<h5 id="8XduLU">RHP Steve Cishek - Elastigirl</h5>
<p id="NmRKFj">The X-Men movies are rated PG-13, which is a little too salty for one Steve Cishek. That’s fine, because his character comp is located safely within the confines of Disney/Pixar. Like Elastigirl, Cishek is able to use the suspension-bridge-in-a-typhoon of his right arm to hurl objects with surprising force and trickeration. Also like Elastigirl, sometimes those things have unintended consequences. Dipoto was betting on Cishek to rebound in 2016, and he did: the walks went down, the strikeouts went up. Unfortunately, so did the home runs. Cishek posted an FIP near four in every month except the first and the last of the season, with an ERA that spiked to over six in July. Looking at his numbers in isolation, none of them stick out horribly—he posted double-digit K/9s in every month except the first and the last, and his K rate hovered around 30%, spiking to almost 40% in July, the same month he posted such a high ERA. His walk rate only hit double digits once. The problem was ill-timed home runs, especially from left-handed batters, who got to him five times for a HR/9 rate of 1.65. The eight HRs Cishek gave up this year were double what he gave up last year and only two less than he’d given up in his last three seasons combined. Cishek yielded the closer job at the beginning of August to Edwin Díaz, and settled in nicely as a high-leverage setup guy, especially considering he was pitching through a torn labrum that required him to miss two weeks in August. Cishek had surgery on his hip in October and will miss the first part of the 2017 season; Altavilla, Scribner, or Zych would be good candidates to slide into the set-up man position while Cishek and his funky Gumby arm are sidelined.</p>
<h5 id="uNKyeL">SHP Pat Venditte - Forge </h5>
<p id="ayrhmO">Forge had both his right arms and leg replaced by mechanical ones, and I don’t know what Daddy Venditte did to make young Pat be able to pitch with both hands, but I can only assume it was some deeply Lovecraftian stuff. I can’t even put cream cheese on a bagel with my right hand. So, Pat Venditte throws the second-slowest fastball among qualified pitchers. The Pitch f/x leaderboard doesn’t distinguish between handedness, so maybe it’s just his left side dragging him down there, but when you’re looking at Stevie “Curphus” Johnson a whole ten positions higher than you, that’s pretty slow. Venditte is very slight (the Internet lists him at 6’1”; the Internet is a house of lies) and doesn’t throw very hard, but he also doesn’t get a lot of swings outside the zone (27%), suggesting his pitches don’t have much deception. His biggest contribution in 2016 was the ability to throw multiple innings of relief and of course, the cool double-handedness trick. He profiles best as a depth piece in Tacoma, where the Rainiers would be smart to come up with some awesome Pat Venditte giveaways, like ambidextrous oven mitts. [<em>Side note: the Mariners sent Tim Lopes, genuine infield prospect, member of the championship Jackson Generals, and doppelgänger of Lookout Landing’s own Tim (@eutimioc2) to Toronto in order to complete the Pat Venditte deal, and I’m still mad about it.</em>]</p>
<h5 id="ckBD7G">LHP David Rollins - Batman</h5>
<p id="WstDD4">I know, I know. Batman isn’t an X-Man. He doesn’t even have any special powers. Batman is essentially a dude who is rich and well-connected and hella pissed. He’s the 1%-er of superheroes. Here’s what’s good for David Rollins: at some point, either because that’s how nature made him or some Little League coach with big-league dreams lashed little Davey’s right arm behind his back, David Rollins learned to throw baseballs with his left hand. Although only 10% of the general population is left-handed, in the MLB, that number jumps to 25%, for “More Lefty Baseball.” Lefty relievers are the cockroaches who skitter over the nuclear winter of front office changes and trade deadlines. But if he wants to stick at the MLB level, he needs to learn to do one thing well. Right now, Rollins doesn’t have an identity as a pitcher. He doesn’t control his walks or strike a ton of guys out or suppress home runs or generate a lot of ground balls (in a very limited sample of 12 BF, he does appear to dominate lefty hitters, allowing just a .200/.333/.200 slash line). He possesses an average, low-90s fastball that has some decent sink but only generates about 13% whiffs. He throws the fastball 60% of the time, and splits the rest of the time between a slider and change-up, both of which sit in the mid-80s. The slider was his best pitch this year, with batters chasing it outside of the zone almost 50% of the time, and eliciting 17% swinging strikes. With Mike Montgomery off starring on network TV with the Cubs and Charlie Furbush rehabbing from major surgery, Rollins only has to outrun Vidal Nuño for right now, although I expect that to change over the off-season. Really, what Rollins needs to do is find his equivalent of Alfred, who will do—I don’t actually know what Alfred does for Batman. Get blood out of the Batsuits? Anyway, whatever it is Alfred does so Batman can be Batman, I don’t know, this metaphor broke down like three paragraphs ago, please don’t trade Altavilla.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/20/13309014/jerry-s-school-for-gifted-pitchers-relief-pitchers-part-iiKate Preusser2016-10-19T09:00:03-07:002016-10-19T09:00:03-07:00Mixed bag of horrors: A bullpen examination
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<figcaption>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Part One of our look at 2016’s pile</p> <p id="ZpDYBT">This post marks the first of two exit examinations of the (sometimes) lovable bunch of weirdos: the Seattle Mariners bullpen. From a Canadian import to a triple digit-throwing rookie, the storylines and performances coming from the bullpen were endless and we’re going to do our best to sum it all up for you. Here we go.</p>
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<h4 id="KF1FwM">Drew Storen </h4>
<p id="RpvFLh"><em>2016 (w/ Mariners): 0.3 fWAR, 2.76 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 7.85 K/9, 1.47 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="kf3tvQ">Drew Storen came to Seattle in a damaged goods for damaged goods trade, with Joaquin Benoit heading over to Toronto after walking everyone in a five-mile radius with a bat in their hands. </p>
<p id="dRcJUI">Storen’s first outing with the Mariners was a peculiar one. Hours after joining the club in Pittsburgh, he was tasked with keeping a 3-1 deficit static. His debut inning was ideal, as he induced three straight groundouts. Scott Servais, perhaps smitten with the sudden appearance of a real life, functional reliever, decided to send Storen back out in the seventh, where Storen was forced to rack up his highest pitch count of the season. When the dust settled, he had surrendered four runs on three hits, a walk, and a strikeout. To repeat myself: other relievers were available and Storen had been a Mariner for roughly five minutes. </p>
<p id="0wILp7">Surprisingly, Storen actually recovered from the outing and put together a fairly successful run with the Mariners. From the beginning of August through the rest of the season, he managed to post a 2.65 FIP while running a 7.50 K/BB. His .214 BABIP during the time period isn’t sustainable, but his ability to limit hard contact was a fun and unexpected turn of events:</p>
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<p id="gvLA7v">He also started mixing his pitches more, posting his lowest total Hard Pitch Percentages in August and September. Storen will be a free agent this offseason, but I’d imagine he’ll be open to the idea of a return to Seattle, given his short run of success this summer. </p>
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<h4 id="CHUXFa">Vidal Nuno</h4>
<p id="aLgUe3"><em>2016: 0.0 fWAR (0.9 bWAR), 4.51 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, 7.82 K/9, 1.69 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="KeJcov">Props to Vidal Nuno: in a year where it seemed like every pitcher ended up on the disabled list sooner or later, he was a shining beacon of health.</p>
<p id="3p2YLH">The results during that time were fairly mixed:</p>
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<p id="HZi8b8">Nuno isn’t the masterful bullpen arm he was in April/May and he isn’t the disaster he was in June and August. He’s a fairly average bullpen arm, but his team control and ability to take on so many different roles, including that of an emergency spot starter, makes him a nifty piece to have moving forward. </p>
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<h4 id="8ICW4K">Arquimedes Caminero</h4>
<p id="GCsqi9"><em>2016: -0.1 fWAR, 5.13 FIP, 5.35 xFIP, 8.24 K/9, 5.03 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="ZQsrKM">Caminero rode strong BABIP luck and a brief stretch of command to a strong start with the Mariners, but things eventually came crashing down in an ugly way for the flame-throwing 29-year-old. He surrendered his first run in a Mariners uniform on August 16th. From that point forward, he put up a 5.95 xFIP while walking more than seven batters per nine innings. </p>
<p id="pVD1Xf">Whether or not he has value moving forward depends on if he A) can figure out how to throw his pitches with any semblance of command, B) develops a second pitch, or C) adds some movement to his triple-digit fastball. Right now, his entire repertoire consists of a straight fastball and below-average breaking stuff, none of which he controls very well. He’s still under team control through 2021, but it’s not like the M’s are dealing with a 23-year-old who is just learning how to pitch. Caminero is 29 and has shown little signs of improvement over the years. All you can hope for at this point is that the M’s figure something out that other teams haven’t over the last decade. </p>
<p id="v0HVSs"></p>
<h4 id="nuSgSO">Evan Scribner</h4>
<p id="47F7U4"><em>2016: 0.4 fWAR, 1.65 FIP, 3.43 xFIP, 9.64 K/9, 1.29 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="4Jx7p6">Scribner had an odd season, going from neat offseason acquisition to hurt to most people forgetting he existed to suddenly rehabbing to Seattle, where he managed to put up fourteen scoreless innings before the season came to an end. </p>
<p id="qIBLhR">He was the beneficiary of BABIP luck and several long fly balls <em>just </em>not having enough to get out of the stadium, but it was a fairly strong Seattle debut, regardless. His fastball velocity was down a tad in 2016, but the curveball was just about as sharp as it’s ever been.</p>
<p id="rBWeY2">Scribner will likely be expected to be a significant contributor in the bullpen entering 2017, where we’ll get a much better feel for what kind of pitcher he could be for the Mariners. The small success in 2016 was nice, but it was exactly that: small success. </p>
<p id="FkJoSt"></p>
<h4 id="51Xu3h">Tom Wilhelmsen</h4>
<p id="b4Lg7r"><em>2016 (w/ Mariners): -0.2 fWAR, 5.07 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 6.12 K/9, 3.60 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="f7eoJG">The narrative that Wilhelmsen purposely sucked in Texas so he could come home to Seattle and go back to tearing MLB hitters to pieces was a fun one and one that I had no problem playing up for fun, but truth be told, Wilhelmsen just wasn’t the Wilhelmsen we knew in 2016. </p>
<p id="eLnqpJ">The velocity and horizontal movement of most of his pitches have trended in the wrong direction the last couple years and in 2016 he saw a career-low in Whiff Percentage on his fastball (7.44%). </p>
<p id="r8TM2Z">There are some questions regarding Wilhelmsen heading into 2017. How much stock do you put into him holding down a spot in the ‘pen? How much money are you willing to give him in arbitration? To you even keep him around long enough to find out?</p>
<p id="FDlZmd">The Bartender has been a fan favorite in Seattle for awhile now and will probably be one of my favorite relief pitchers in team history when all is said and done, but his presence in the ‘pen in 2017 is far from a certainty. </p>
<p id="FFBoWd"></p>
<h4 id="Probs1">Edwin Diaz</h4>
<p id="3Ockyp"><em>2016: 1.9 WAR, 2.04 FIP, 1.88 xFIP, 15.33 K/9, 2.61 BB/9</em></p>
<p id="ZWg1RK">Of all the surprises 2016 brought us, it was hard to find one greater than that of Edwin Diaz: elite relief pitcher. Diaz started the year as a starting pitcher with Double-A Jackson, where he twirled a few consecutive strong outings in a row to start the year. Just as the idea of him potentially sneaking into the Seattle rotation at some point in 2016 started creeping into our minds, Dipoto and Co. made the sudden move to switch him to a permanent, full-time reliever, effective immediately. They spoke of his ability to contribute sooner this way and how much his stuff would play up. These high expectations were met instantly, as Diaz flirted with 100 mph while flashing a razor sharp slider in his first relief appearance with Jackson. </p>
<p id="AFgxzS">Soon after, he was called up to Seattle, where he quickly emerged as the team’s best reliever. For awhile, he treated MLB hitters like minor leaguers, flinging pitch after pitch past them with ease and leaving them unsure about whether or not this whole baseball thing was going to work out after all. </p>
<p id="qGkZLD">A bit of a wall was hit in August, when his walk-rate shot up to just over five walks per nine innings and his xFIP inflated to a pinch over three. Even then, it always felt like if he could just get it together for three hitters, he’d be fine, and that typically was the case. He finished the season with a big September/October, posting a 12.48 K/9 and a 1.66 xFIP. </p>
<p id="PPW3QO">I expect Diaz to continue as the team’s closer in 2017. It’ll be interesting to see how he approaches his first offseason and full season as a relief pitcher, but I wouldn’t expect much to change. The triple digit fastball will be there. The exploding slider will be there. The smile will be there. The fun will be there. </p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/19/13326504/seattle-mariners-bullpen-examination-bag-of-horrorsEthan Novak2016-10-18T09:00:08-07:002016-10-18T09:00:08-07:00The Rotation, The Sequel
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<img alt="Paxton Greatness" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/z8Ez7smwPg4IGbFClRZiB4sVjgs=/0x126:265x303/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51400483/Paxton.0.0.JPG" />
</figure>
<p>Three starters who nobody can seem to agree on.</p> <p id="6VMTA8">This is the Fun Grab Bag of the exit interviews, where I get to profile three spare parts who now have very different roles with the team than most imagined a year ago. Let’s roll.</p>
<h2 id="rSBu4M">James Paxton</h2>
<p id="DzxZRJ">What a year for everyone’s favorite Canadian lefty. It may be easy to forget, given everything that’s happened since then, but Paxton started the season in Tacoma, the odd man out in the rotation battle. He pitched decently well in AAA, but that should be expected - after all, he turns 28 next month. Paxton’s role was effectively starting pitching depth, with a transition to reliever not out of the question down the road.</p>
<p id="MQB8CL">Even when Paxton was recalled on June 1 to replace the injured King, things didn’t look too bright on the surface: He was shelled for 10 hits and eight runs (though just three were earned) in 3.2 innings against the Padres. On the news of his recall, <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/5/31/11826434/mariners-recalling-james-paxton">Zach wrote</a>:</p>
<aside id="ALJ8lo"><q>A 3.97 ERA from a 27-year-old with 30 big league starts under his belt is nothing special, but it's good enough for a team's sixth starter.</q></aside><p id="OY94kl">Yet that start also portended greatness, as Paxton’s fastball suddenly jumped to the high-90s. And sure enough, less than three weeks later...</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Paxton Happy" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/S3jkkGGFVV9JIlCfWcgk1ojPbK0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6665937/Pax_Happy.0.JPG">
</figure>
<p id="jDtz7l">That’s Swelmet Winner James Paxton to you! Or, as Nathan called him, <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/6/17/11953972/james-paxton-is-the-mariners-best-starting-pitcher">“the Mariners’ best starting pitcher.”</a></p>
<p id="5AELOr">The mechanical adjustment made by Tacoma pitching coach Lance Painter worked wonders, as Paxton’s new arm slot resulted in a major increase in fastball velocity. He proceeded to remain in the rotation for the rest of 2016, making 20 starts (a career-high) and throwing 121 valuable innings.</p>
<p id="xz1iCB">How valuable? Well, Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs disagree pretty severely. BBRef has him worth just 1.0 bWAR, with an ERA+ of 107. Fangraphs, meanwhile, pegged his season at 3.5 fWAR (!!!), making him the most valuable Mariners pitcher. <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/7/28/12310136/the-mariners-as-pokemon">Our favorite Hariyama</a> was cursed with some bad luck, posting a BABIP of .347 and stranding just 66.3% of his baserunners.</p>
<p id="hMaazZ">Either way, his dramatically increased velocity, and the strikeouts that accompanied it, have cemented Paxton’s role in the 2017 M’s rotation. In addition, because he spent the first two months of this season in AAA, he still has four more years of club control at a fairly cheap price, certainly nice for a team that’s got over $90 million tied up in just five players next year (Félix, Canó, Cruz, Iwakuma, Seager).</p>
<h2 id="DBxKrO">Nate Karns</h2>
<p id="j4Cnet">Karns was the centerpiece of the Brad Miller trade, a 28-year-old righty with five years of club control who looked prime to hold down a rotation spot for cheap. Instead, he kept his spot until July, as Paxton’s rise, combined with the acquisition of Wade LeBlanc, pushed him into the bullpen.</p>
<p id="9LHMrJ">From there on, Karns appeared in a handful of games, serving as a multi-inning reliever until suffering a back injury swinging a bat on July 29 (yet another point in favor of the DH). He remained out for the rest of the season, though he should easily be ready for spring training.</p>
<p id="Hp8Ivj">Karns’ biggest problem was his inability to pitch deep into games, completing seven innings just once in 15 starts and making nine starts where he failed to pitch into the sixth. He also struggled with his command, posting a career-worst walk rate at a gaudy 10.8%.</p>
<p id="T2rbLG">The bright side is that advanced stats didn’t see him as a materially different pitcher, with a FIP of 4.05 (actually the best in his nascent major league career). Look for Karns to compete for a rotation spot next year, though nothing is guaranteed thanks to...</p>
<h2 id="ePpeyY">Ariel Miranda</h2>
<p id="IE2GQq">When the Mariners dealt Wade Miley in late July, I think most Mariners fans were generally happy. That is, until they learned of the return. Ariel Miranda had all of two major league innings to his belt, in which he allowed four hits and three runs. He defected from Cuba in 2015 and spent the ’15 and ’16 seasons bouncing around various minor league levels. It seemed as though Trader Jerry had gotten fleeced, giving up on Miley at his absolute lowest value.</p>
<p id="UGO2IJ">Perhaps the most generous interpretation came courtesy of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-aged-lefty-ariel-miranda-mariners-return-for-miley/">Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs, who wrote</a>:</p>
<aside id="9trZ3w"><q>I think there’s a chance the Mariners have netted themselves an arm that can compete every fifth day rather than one upon which they call merely in emergencies. Cuban prospects have been volatile because, at least in part, of how inconsistently they play in real games leading up to their MiLB/MLB careers. It’s possible Miranda is just now beginning to hit his stride and that the Mariners have caught some lightning in a bottle, even if it’s just an inning-eating, slightly above-replacement kind of lightning.</q></aside><p id="LydvUp">This season, Miranda...basically was that slightly above-replacement kind of lightning. Once again, Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs disagreed on his value, with the former appreciating his 3.54 ERA and putting him at 0.9 bWAR, while the latter blanched at his .222 BABIP and gave him just 0.1 fWAR.</p>
<p id="KXA6se">If you want to be optimistic, focus on the fact that his fastball reached previously-unseen levels, topping out at 97 MPH. You can also take comfort in his September, where he posted a 2.62 ERA and was clearly a better pitcher than in August. Perhaps he’s figuring it out! Then again, the advanced stats, what with his subpar strikeout rate and the extreme batted-ball luck in 2016, indicate that he might not amount to much.</p>
<p id="7H6KmU">What’s the truth? Likely somewhere in the middle. He should absolutely factor into the Mariners’ future, and stands a good chance at slotting into the No. 5 spot in next year’s rotation. But he could also become AAA depth should the M’s acquire a starter or two this offseason.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/18/13315626/the-rotation-the-sequelGrant Bronsdon2016-10-17T09:00:03-07:002016-10-17T09:00:03-07:00The story of the 2016 Mariners starting pitching aka thank goodness for Hisashi Iwakuma
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<img alt="MLB: Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/d_MaYTkErWW8hrlUfI6Brhlh6qw=/0x0:3893x2595/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51379981/usa-today-9583183.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The pitching rotation was a total mess this year. Our first of two posts tries to make some sense of it.</p> <p id="vYNSqI">Like it is every year, the Seattle Mariners pitching staff had its highs and lows. Like it has never had, however, was a Seattle Mariners pitching staff that wasn’t highlighted by Felix Hernandez. In 2016, Hernandez was the defacto No. 1 starter, purely because of order, but he was hardly the best pitcher on a staff that dealt with a wild amount of injuries. Let’s take a look at how everyone did.</p>
<h3 id="SiaK18">Felix Hernandez</h3>
<p id="mQ3eSR">2016 just wasn’t Felix’s year, flat out. Not to criticize someone by their hair choices, but perhaps whatever it was that King Felix showed up to this season absorbed into his skin and leeched his powers away. Or maybe it is also just because he is 30-years-old and has pitched over 2,400 innings of major league level baseball. Either way, King Felix was hardly a nickname befit for Hernandez this season. He needed something that rolled off the tongue a bit better, such as Old King Who is On His Way Out and Nation is Currently Trying to Determine His Successor Felix.</p>
<p id="UC1qFn">Hernandez finished with a fWAR of 2.9, his lowest total for a full season of work in his career. The strikeouts were down and the walks were up. The fastball had another few ticks off the velocity, yet Hernandez still tried it out 46.3 percent of the time, more so than he did in 2014 and 2015.</p>
<p id="81CXge">King Felix is by no means done, however. He still demonstrated in a few games this season that he has the ability to be a dominant No. 1 starter. The fact of the matter, and this is something Hernandez needs to realize, is he can no longer blow by people with his fastball. He still has a few more years on his contract, and theoretically a few more year on his arm, and he is at a sort of crossroads of his career. Hernandez needs to re-invent himself, turn himself into a more finesse pitcher who relies on placement and smarts, rather than a pitcher that relies on straight-up athleticism. He does that, he should be fine. He doesn’t do that, and the Mariners will be in a world of hurt.</p>
<h3 id="SrUgck">Hisashi Iwakuma</h3>
<p id="oP8Mlj">Remember when Iwakuma was almost not a Seattle Mariner this season? Well thank goodness that medical fell through, because he ended up being the most consistent member of the starting rotation on a rotation that desperately needed some semblance of consistency. Iwakuma led the team in innings pitched, and although at the end of the season his numbers were hardly awe-inspiring, the fact that he could trot out every five days was so important. As members of the rotation fell left and right to injuries or trades, Iwakuma tried his best to keep the boat afloat.</p>
<p id="fwsKFD">Kuma will most likely be in the starting rotation next season. The Mariners built in some injury clauses into his contract, and Iwakuma finished the season without a trip to the disabled list. Like Hernandez, a lot of Iwakuma’s pitching numbers trended in the wrong direction in 2016. The strikeout rate was down, the walk rate was up, and the fastball lost a notch, but Iwakuma still put that all together for a perfectly serviceable season.</p>
<h3 id="14QPq8">Taijuan Walker</h3>
<p id="p8Wp7M">Another year of Walker and another year of tantalizing starts combined with horrendous nuclear winter style starts. Perhaps the hardest thing about watching Walker pitch is that you never know what kind of start you are going to get. You might get the June 08 gem against the Indians, where he finished with eight innings pitched, giving up three hits and striking out 11 in the process. Or you might just as easily witness the July 05 start against the Astros, where he finished with four innings, five earned runs coming from three home runs clonked off him.</p>
<p id="6VYp3w">Walker’s inconsistency is an issue, and the team made some midseason <a href="http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/9/9/12867202/quick-look-taijuan-s-fastball-and-new-mechanics">mechanic adjustments</a> to try and help Walker realize his full potential. Walker only made it into the sixth inning or later in 10 of his 25 starts, <a href="http://sports.mynorthwest.com/174432/jerry-dipoto-says-mariners-really-need-taijuan-walker-for-stretch-run/">and that doesn’t vibe too well</a> with Jerry Dipoto, the fastest draw in the west.</p>
<blockquote id="3AAFrC"><p>“We need to see Taijuan drop into the sixth- and seventh-inning zone of a game and prove to us that he can be more efficient with his pitches,” Dipoto said. “As a major leaguer over the past two years, Tai has not really had an issue with walks … but he’s not done a great job of being efficient with his pitches, and as a result he’s not always as consistent getting deep into games as we’d like for a starting pitcher. And that’s just something we challenged Tai and said to go out and do.”</p></blockquote>
<p id="uk3qxW">Walker is currently in the plans for the team next season. But he also could just as easily be currently in trade plans for Dipoto next season. He didn’t do anything this season that made him remotely indispensable, and his window to achieve that lofty ranking is rapidly closing.</p>
<h3 id="ZGuPpV">Cody Martin (go zags)</h3>
<p id="j4EdMF">Authors note: as a graduate of Gonzaga University, there is no way I can write about Cody Martin (go zags) in an unbiased format. Martin (go zags) was called up from AAA to spin together a couple of stop-gap starts as the rotation disintegrated from its tattered strings. Martin (go zags) was meh in one of those starts and oh god in another one of those starts. The Mariners then sent him to the pen, where he was a decent at stranding guys on base.</p>
<p id="b8C3PH">There is plenty of room for Martin (go zags) to crowd his way onto the bullpen bench. Hopefully, we saw the last start of Martin (go zags) in a Seattle Mariners uniform this year. He was forced into the role because there was no one else to force into that role. Considering that is how the rotation operated for a good portion of the year, it sometimes is amazing the Mariners were even able to compete for a playoff spot as long as they did.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/17/13298970/2016-seattle-mariners-season-review-starting-pitchingPeter Woodburn2016-10-14T09:02:51-07:002016-10-14T09:02:51-07:00All hands on deck: Outfielders, part 2
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<img alt="MLB: Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9YN4PSTd2IekHWN-q4bkxR_lZq4=/96x0:2858x1841/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51355015/usa-today-9565489.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It took a while, but the Mariners put together an impressive defensive outfield in 2016.</p> <p id="UyOJjp">Down the stretch in September, when the games were close and the innings were late, Scott Servais would frequently employ a pair of outfielders off the bench. He called them his “hands team.” With Leonys Martin fixed in center field, Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel would enter the game to his left and right, forming a defensive trio unmatched since Franklin Gutierrez was known as “Death to Flying Things.”</p>
<h3 id="NGi8ED">Leonys Martin</h3>
<p id="N9lfcb">The Mariners have employed some memorable center fielders during their franchise history. They spent an entire season celebrating one of them this year. But recently, the players patrolling center field have been memorable more for their struggles rather than their excellence. Leonys Martin may not have entirely flipped that narrative in 2016, but though he fell short on the field, he more than made up for by quickly becoming the heartbeat of the team.</p>
<p id="CSg8dI">At the plate, Martin had an up-and-down season. He started the year with a bang, launching nine home runs in the first two months, quickly breaking his previous career high. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury in late May derailed his early season success. He may have been rushed back because of a lack of any capable depth or maybe the power he displayed was just a flash in the pan. Whatever the reason, his ISO after returning from his injury dropped from .221 to .097 the rest of the way. Perhaps more concerning was the spike in strikeout rate and the corresponding drop in contact rate. In the end, his overall season line looked pretty similar to his previous career norms established in Texas. </p>
<p id="gqqXqB">Defensively, Martin was the best center fielder the Mariners have seen since young Franklin Gutierrez. He showed <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v642652783">good range</a>, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1112048983/">good speed</a>, and we all know about his <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v869743683">cannon arm</a>. The advanced defensive metrics were undecided about his defensive value; UZR and FRAA both saw him as an above average center fielder but DRS was a little more pessimistic.</p>
<p id="PZiRwi">Listening to some of the Mariners talk about the clubhouse atmosphere this season, it became clear that Martin was a huge reason for their excellent chemistry. They would talk about his infectious energy, his constant encouragement, and penchant for big plays in big moments. His two <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v950257183/cwssea-leonys-clubs-two-homers-including-walkoff">walk-off home runs</a> were incredible moments in a season full of memories.</p>
<h3 id="dPul9l">Guillermo Heredia</h3>
<p id="l7xGC4">When the Mariners signed Guillermo Heredia in February, he hadn’t regularly played ball since 2014. That long layoff dampened expectations but the scouting reports were intriguing. In Cuba, he was an excellent defender with some questions about his bat. If he could get up to speed in the minors, he would create some depth for Martin and possibly earn a spot on the roster as a fourth outfielder. That’s exactly what happened. He quickly moved through two minor league levels, and by July, looked like he was ready for an audition.</p>
<p id="FLndtK">Heredia made 18 starts for the Mariners over the last two months of the season and entered the game as a defensive replacement in another 32 games. In the field, he was exactly as advertised: good range, good speed, and a strong arm. At the plate, he showed off his developed approach and a good eye by walking in 11.2% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.0% of them. He doesn’t possess much power but he’s able to hit to all fields and has enough speed to leg out a few infield hits.</p>
<h3 id="QsMpKl">Ben Gamel</h3>
<p id="mDu7Om">Ben Gamel was a minor league standout in the Yankees organization but his path to the majors was blocked by entrenched veterans and more tantalizing prospects. Jerry Dipoto recognized that surplus and traded for Gamel right before the wavier trade deadline. He fits the outfield mold Dipoto has been trying to fill all year: he’s athletic, strong defensively, and possesses a good eye at the plate. In 47 at-bats with the Mariners, he accumulated just eight hits but walked in more than 10% of his plate appearances. He made six starts in September and entered the game off the bench in another 21.</p>
<h3 id="k9dIuF">2017 Outlook</h3>
<p id="BKEQPL">Leonys Martin is eligible for salary arbitration for the second time this offseason. <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html">MLB Trade Rumors</a> projects his salary to fall somewhere around $6.3 million next year. Depending on how the situation with Aoki, Smith, and Guti shakes out, Heredia and Gamel should see a significant amount of time on the active roster as fourth or fifth outfielders. Both are under team control for five more years and both still have minor league options available. They should compete for a spot on the roster in spring training and will provide competent depth at all three outfield positions.</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/14/13286012/all-hands-on-deck-outfielders-part-2Jake Mailhot2016-10-13T09:00:02-07:002016-10-13T09:00:02-07:00A quick look at Seattle's ~regular corner outfielders
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GoKBG5heo0MTi3Gs7Rj5TVfF9Ag=/0x32:4390x2959/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51326985/GettyImages-579359854.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Aoki and Smith and Cruz and Guti, oh my!</p> <p>Our miniseries of post-season positional summaries continues with... <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/">Seattle Mariners</a> outfielders! Specifically, I'll be talking about the four gentlemen who spent the most time at the corner spots in the outfield: Norichika Aoki, Seth Smith, <span class="sbn-auto-link">Nelson Cruz</span>, and Franklin Gutierrez. (Jake will be discussing the remaining M's outfielders tomorrow.) Let's get to it.</p>
<h4>
<span>Norichika Aoki</span>: A tale of two halves</h4>
<p>Aoki's first few months in an M's uniform were <i>ugly</i>. He couldn't hit, his fielding was ADVENTUROUS (in a bad way), and he was thrown out stealing in seven of his first nine stolen base attempts. Every facet of his game was a disaster. In mid June, after appearing in 62 games, Aoki's fWAR sat at miserable -0.3. Yuck! Shortly thereafter, Servais made the decision to send his leadoff hitter ~40 miles south to Cheney Stadium in an attempt to help Aoki "get right". Thankfully, the restorative powers of Tacoma (???) worked their magic and Aoki was able to turn his season around in a big way. Below is a table showing some offensive numbers for Aoki before and after his June 22nd demotion to Triple A.</p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">Split</td>
<td align="center">PA</td>
<td align="center">K%</td>
<td align="center">BABIP</td>
<td align="center">AVG</td>
<td align="center">OBP</td>
<td align="center">SLG</td>
<td align="center">wRC+</td>
<td align="center">GB/FB</td>
<td align="center">GB%</td>
<td align="center">FB%</td>
<td align="center">Pull%</td>
<td align="center">Oppo%</td>
<td align="center">Hard%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">Before demotion</td>
<td align="center">284</td>
<td align="center">10.9%</td>
<td align="center">0.275</td>
<td align="center">0.245</td>
<td align="center">0.323</td>
<td align="center">0.313</td>
<td align="center">80</td>
<td align="center">4.14</td>
<td align="center">67.1%</td>
<td align="center">16.2%</td>
<td align="center">27.8%</td>
<td align="center">31.8%</td>
<td align="center">16.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">After demotion</td>
<td align="center">183</td>
<td align="center">7.7%</td>
<td align="center">0.358</td>
<td align="center">0.339</td>
<td align="center">0.390</td>
<td align="center">0.500</td>
<td align="center">146</td>
<td align="center">1.70</td>
<td align="center">51.7%</td>
<td align="center">30.5%</td>
<td align="center">36.1%</td>
<td align="center">27.7%</td>
<td align="center">24.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>Wowie zowie what a difference. During the first 2.5 months of the season, Aoki pounded the ball into the ground again and again and <i>again</i>. A GB/FB ratio that starts with the numeral "4" is pretty absurd. It should be noted that a 67% GB rate with a .275 BABIP <i>does</i> suggest some bad luck, but Aoki wasn't hitting the ball hard very often so he is far from blameless. Fortunately, after his sojourn in Tacoma, he started to generate significantly more lift and more pop when he hit the ball. He also managed to substantially reduce his K-rate back near his career average (8%). All of these positive factors combined to make Aoki an <i>extremely</i> dangerous hitter in the second half of 2016. CRAZY STAT ALERT: 217 players had at least 180 PA after the All Star Break in 2016<span class="st">—</span>Norichika Aoki had the 14th best wRC+ in all of baseball over that period. In terms of overall value in 2016, Aoki's 1.54 fWAR/600 was sandwiched between <span>Jose Bautista</span> and <span>Jason Heyward</span> on one side and <span>Michael Saunders</span> and <span>Jose Abreu</span> on the other. That's pretty bananas given just how much he struggled early on.</p>
<p>Looking forward to next season, Aoki's $6M option for 2017 (based on 480 PA in '16) failed to vest; however, Jerry Dipoto has expressed interest in bringing Aoki back. This could be a good idea? Even with his less than stellar defense/baserunning, if Aoki can limit his strikeouts and avoid falling into an early-season funk, he still has the potential to be a very useful ballplayer.</p>
<h4>
<span>Seth Smith</span>: A tale of two halves (with the opposite storyline)<br>
</h4>
<p>Seth Smith had one of the very best spring trainings in recent M's history. He hit .541 (!) down in Phoenix and smacked line drives to all fields throughout the month of March. This ability to see the ball well carried over into the regular season. At the end of April, Seth was still riding high with an OPS of .966. Everything was awesome. Unfortunately, this success, like all good things in life, was fleeting; Smith's offensive production lagged mightily as the season wore on. Below is a table showing some offensive numbers for Seth during the first and last 81 games of the season.</p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">Split</td>
<td align="center">PA</td>
<td align="center">K%</td>
<td align="center">BABIP</td>
<td align="center">AVG</td>
<td align="center">OBP</td>
<td align="center">SLG</td>
<td align="center">wRC+</td>
<td align="center">LD%</td>
<td align="center">Pull%</td>
<td align="center">Oppo%</td>
<td align="center">Soft%</td>
<td align="center">Swing%</td>
<td align="center">Contact%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">First 81 G</td>
<td align="center">242</td>
<td align="center">17.8%</td>
<td align="center">0.310</td>
<td align="center">0.280</td>
<td align="center">0.372</td>
<td align="center">0.444</td>
<td align="center">127</td>
<td align="center">19.3%</td>
<td align="center">40.1%</td>
<td align="center">19.2%</td>
<td align="center">11.4%</td>
<td align="center">39.8%</td>
<td align="center">81.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" height="17">Last 81 G</td>
<td align="center">196</td>
<td align="center">23.5%</td>
<td align="center">0.244</td>
<td align="center">0.211</td>
<td align="center">0.306</td>
<td align="center">0.380</td>
<td align="center">89</td>
<td align="center">24.6%</td>
<td align="center">46.8%</td>
<td align="center">15.1%</td>
<td align="center">19.8%</td>
<td align="center">39.4%</td>
<td align="center">76.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p> </p>
<p>In the second half of 2016, Seth made a lot more soft contact and started swinging and missing much more often. Individually, each of these things is a bummer<span class="st">—</span>together, they're pretty much a disaster. Frustratingly/weirdly, Seth's line drive rate actually increased appreciably during the second half of the season; he hit liners about a quarter of the time, which is well above the league-average line-drive rate. Unfortunately, as reflected by his .244 BABIP, few of those managed to fall in for base hits. The second half of Seth's season was doomed by bad BABIP luck, weak contact, and a somewhat worrying contact rate. In addition to these late-season offensive woes, Seth's defense also appeared to appreciably decline compared to last year. 2016 may have been the worst year of everyone's favorite baseball dad's career. Womp.</p>
<p>Seth has a $7M team option remaining on his contract for 2017. Not so long ago, this was viewed as a very team-friendly salary. However, Seth's recent struggles at the plate and his declining defense have taken some of the shine off of his price tag. Regardless, Seth can/should be pencilled in against RHP; he's still very capable of giving his team PROFESSIONAL at-bats. Alternatively, if Jerry decides to try and deal Smith this offseason, he's a not small trade piece that could potentially be used to help upgrade a position of greater need.</p>
<h5></h5>
<h4>
<span>Nelson Cruz</span>: R<span class="_Tgc">aging <b>against the dying of the light (quite successfully)</b></span>
</h4>
<h4><span class="_Tgc"></span></h4>
<p>For the second season in a row as a member of the Seattle Mariners, Nelson Cruz brazenly defied baseball's aging curve. Since the start of 2015, only five players in all of MLB (Trout, Votto, Miggy, Harper, and Donaldson) have been better at hitting baseballs than Cruz. Nellie's first two seasons in the PNW have vastly exceeded any and all reasonable expectations that M's fans had when he was signed back in December of 2014. For a bit more perspective, a qualified player in his age-34-or-older season has posted a wRC+ above 145 for just eight times in franchise history. <span>Edgar Martinez</span> did it five times (because he is just the best), the great Tom Paciorek did it once (way back in '81), and Nelson Cruz has now done it twice.</p>
<p>Additionally, Nelson was finally able to successfully overcome the nebulous DH penalty that seemed to plague him over the last two seasons. In 2014 and 2015 (the only other years when Cruz spent an appreciable amount of time at DH), his wRC+ was just 121 when he DH'd but 171 (!) otherwise. This season, that script was flipped; Cruz had a wRC+ of 157 when he was the designated hitter and a wRC+ of 124 otherwise. This apparent comfort with the DH role (thanks, Edgar!) allowed Servais to drastically limit Cruz's time in the field. Nelson only played 400 innings in the outfield in 2016 (down from 700 in 2015) and logged just 25 innings after July 31st. Limiting Cruz's time in the outfield is a good idea because 1) he's somewhat of a defensive liability and 2) he is old and we don't want him to explode his knees.</p>
<p>Projecting Cruz for next season is pretty tricky. On the one hand, he's shown absolutely no signs of slowing down so far, but on the other he <i>will</i> turn 37 years old next July. His performance has such a wide range of potential outcomes. People have also talked at length about dealing Cruz while his value so high; I do wonder about what kind of haul he might net, but this lineup would be a lot less potent and a <i>lot</i> less fun without him in the dugout.</p>
<h5></h5>
<h4>
<span>Franklin Gutierrez</span>: R<span class="_Tgc">aging <b>against the dying of the light (somewhat less successfully)</b></span>
</h4>
<p>In 2016, Franklin Gutierrez played in 98 games for the Seattle Mariners. It was the most appearances he's made in a season since 2010. (For reference, <span>Josh Wilson</span> was the M's ~everyday shortstop in 2010; that really was quite some time ago.) It's probably only a little bit hyperbolic to say that <i>everyone</i> loves Guti. We're all well aware of the struggles he's overcome and how much he's fought to retrace his steps back to having an impact as a productive major league player. His last two seasons (<i>especially</i> 2015) have been nothing short of magical. Despite his body's insistence to perennially let him down, Guti has persevered and somehow found a way to become one of the very best hitters in the world when facing off against left-handed pitchers. In 2016, Guti's wRC+ of 143 vs. southpaws was tied for 5th best in MLB (min 175 PA vs. LHP). He was just as good as Miggy. That's pretty unbelievable.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the other aspects of Guti's game have been unable to rebound as dramatically. In 2016, Franklin rated as Seattle's worst outfielder (min 150 innings) in terms of both UZR/150 and DRS. Advanced fielding metrics certainly have their flaws, and that is a woefully small sample size, but anyone who watched Guti run around in the field last year is well aware of the fact that he's lost a step (or three). Additionally, once an above-average baserunner and a threat to steal ~15 bases per season, Guti has just one stolen base attempt since 2013. His legs just aren't quite there anymore.</p>
<p>It breaks my heart to type this, but it's getting increasingly hard to justify taking up a roster spot with a player who can't hit righties, can't be used as a defensive substitute, and can't really be used as a pinch runner. Guti is <i>very good</i> at the one thing he's good at, but I don't know if that's good enough to stick on this roster moving forward. Maybe if the M's didn't have a platoon at 1B, but... I don't want to talk about this anymore. It's making me so sad. Feel free to discuss this further in the comments. Love you, Guti.</p>
<p align="center">- - -</p>
<p>It seems unlikely that the Mariners will once again employ all four of these players in 2017. Doing so last year cost them a ton in terms of both flexibility and defensive ability, and with each of these gentlemen on the wrong side of 33 their dependability is far from guaranteed. I wouldn't be surprised if three of these guys graced the 2017 Mariners with their presence, but we'll have to wait and see what course of action the front office decides to pursue. Do something good, Jerry. And please don't make us too sad.</p>
<p>goms</p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/13/13264078/a-quick-look-at-seattles-regular-corner-outfieldersAndrew_Rice2016-10-12T09:00:05-07:002016-10-12T09:00:05-07:00A Demigod and the Macabre: Middle Infielders
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DbgZSkFWcIfD5Pf9NKcbGiLgXEU=/0x0:4191x2794/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/51314691/usa-today-9520007.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Question marks grade notoriously poorly in defensive metrics.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 11pt;" dir="ltr"><span>The best and worst position players on the </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.lookoutlanding.com/"><span>Mariners</span></a><span> in 2016 were middle infielders. I will give you all zero guesses as to who they were because you know the answers and </span><span><span>Adam Lind</span></span><span> is not a shortstop. While one position is in a better place than it was a year ago, the other is a definite question mark. In the order used by the insane technological error of the voting machines in the </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_of_the_Year_(2006_film)"><span>Robin Williams film, </span><span>Man of the Year</span><span>,</span></a><span> let’s review the Mariners’ middle infield of 2016.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b><span><span>Mike Freeman</span></span><span> (Double E’s!)</span></b></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>For </span><span><span>Mike Freeman</span></span><span>, human being, 2016 was likely a pretty significant success. The 29 year-old rookie made his MLB debut in mid-July with the </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/"><span>Diamondbacks</span></a><span>, and recorded his first few career hits as a Mariner down the stretch. As a Mariner, Freeman was 5-13 with a double and made a spectacular diving play at shortstop that, if WPA measured defensive contributions, would have been overwhelmingly represented. He should be immensely proud, as a former 11</span><span>th</span><span> round pick who spent nearly six years in the minor leagues, to have achieved what he has already. With that said, while Freeman’s short-term display of excellence is better than if he had been disastrous, there is little to indicate an extensive capability to produce. While anything is possible, his minor league numbers and his body type do not indicate he will be a sustainably average hitter at a Major League level.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b>2017 Freemaybe:</b> The red-bearded AAAA player is not yet arbitration-eligible, and will likely start next year competing for the utility role/25th man spot next year, or else will start out in AAA.</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span><b>Shawn O’Malley (Double L’s!)</b></span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>Much like a backup quarterback is often the most popular player on a struggling football team, Shawn O’Malley’s star rose in large part due to the mishaps of the man in front of him. Following the trade of </span><span><span>Luis Sardi</span></span><span>ñ</span><span><span>as</span></span><span>, O’Malley’s identity theft act of </span><span><span>Willie Bloomquist</span></span><span> went into full effect. He played parts of at least four games at six different positions, and was a positive baserunner overall, making him a pinch-running option for a team with a few strong hitters that tend to lumber more than they lope. Shawn O’Malley: Utility Man is a perfectly reasonable MLB player, even as his 73 wRC+ and .229/.299/.319 slash betray the fact that he has not been a serviceable hitter. He was narrowly above replacement level this year, but if you can have one player be slightly above, or even just at replacement level at several positions, that opens a team up to spend money on players with the chance to be far more productive. Unfortunately, Shawn O’Malley: Everyday Shortstop was a question, then a possibility, and eventually a beseeching cry from many fans, and that should not be the case. In 2016 there were no better options, but in 2017 there will be, even with a thin SS market. There must be.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b>2017 O’Malley PrO'baballey:</b> Seattle has two players with almost identical skill sets in O’Malley and Freeman, but O’Malley has shown the ability to play the outfield reasonably as well. He remains short of arbitration, and is the likely favorite to assume the utility role again.</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b><span><span>Ketel Marte</span></span><span> (Plays SS which is Double S’s!)</span></b></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>2015 Marte Partay: You show up looking like a million bucks and meet several people who genuinely share a passion with you and hold engaging conversations with them. The music is good, there’s a dance floor that’s well set up and not grimy. Fresh air is properly flowing through the space, and the glances you’ve been trading with the charming individual across the room all night turns into an exchange of numbers and hours of *redacted* definitely wholesome family fun.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>2016 Marte Party: A rave where everyone has Mono. And Hand, foot, and mouth disease.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span><span>Ketel Marte</span></span><span> was a very bad MLB shortstop in 2016. You can be </span><span><span>Aledmys D</span></span><span>í</span><span><span>az</span></span><span> or </span><span><span>Stephen Drew</span></span><span> and be subpar defensively if you hit for power as a shortstop. Marte hit one home run this year. You can be a subpar hitter like </span><span><span>Freddy Galvis</span></span><span> or Zack Cosart if you play good defense. Marte showed good range and a strong arm, but was inconsistent. You can be a highly valuable player, maximizing your speed and baserunning abilities by improving your plate discipline and walking with more frequency, like </span><span><span>Jonathan Villar</span></span><span> or Daniel Descalso. Marte walked 5 times in a month this year once, and had a 84/18 K/BB this year. He was a middling to poor player in the first half of the year, with a 77 wRC+ and an and then, following a few injuries and losing at least ten pounds due to illness, and had several very memorable mistakes that will likely linger in our memories. They will likely linger for him too, and it was evident that his struggles were getting to him down the stretch, from his body language and his deteriorating plate approach.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>Ketel Marte turns 23 today. He and </span><span><span>Mike Zunino</span></span><span> are likely to be brought up together as examples of players who have shown the ability, in more than just a few week samples, to be good major league baseball players, but struggled immensely to do so consistently. Mike Zunino is 25, and will turn 26 just before the 2017 season begins. Marte has plenty of developing still to do, but the Mariners would be well served to find a veteran shortstop in the offseason.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b>2017 Marte Partay:</b> The Mariners trade for a decent SS or sign <span><span>Erick Aybar</span></span> and allow Marte to spend this offseason getting stronger, healthier, and more adept at C’ing the Z. Marte begins 2017 in AAA, but will spend plenty of time at the MLB level.</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b><span><span>Robinson Can</span></span><span>ó (Last in the vote, but first in our hearts)</span></b></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>It was strange to believe that at the outset of 2016, there was a legitimate case that both middle infield positions were spots of uncertainty. 33 year-old Robinson Canó responded with one of the three best seasons of his plausibly Hall of Fame career, and realigned himself towards approaching viable financial recompense for the mammoth deal he was signed for, purely with his baseball play. The numbers are sparkling: 161 games played. A 138 wRC+. A career high 39 home runs, accompanied by a decline in his K% and, for what it’s worth, his first positively rated defensive season as a Mariner. Canó was resplendent, and his leadership and relaxed manner is consistently referenced by teammates, coaches, and front office staff as helping contribute to the development of younger players and the positive environment that the Mariners clubhouse was in 2016. These are obviously less tangible benefits, but this year, as a fan, the sensation of Canó stepping up to the plate returned to how it felt in 2014.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><span>Not since Ichiro left has a Mariners’ player entered the batter’s box and delivered to me such a sensation of confidence that something good was imminent. It is, incidentally, the opposite sensation derived from seeing his double play partner bat, but Robbie made up for that several times over in 2016. As long as he is healthy, there is no reason not to expect, while not the same power levels, ~30 home runs and a wRC+ around 130-140.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 1.38; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 10pt;" dir="ltr"><b>2017 Canót Believe Andy Van Slyke's Next Prediction:</b> Robinson Cano will be the second baseman for the Seattle Mariners. He will do his job better than literally almost anyone in the world does their job. Ho hum.</p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" height="224" width="400" src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1202122583&topic_id=8877490&width=400&height=224&property=mlb"></iframe></p>
<p>Go M's.</p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3"> </font></p>
<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"> </font></p>
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/10/12/13252518/a-demigod-and-the-macabre-middle-infieldersJohn Trupin