Series Preview: Mariners (81-65) vs. Dodgers (88-57)

Listen, we’re not gonna beat around the bush here; the Dodgers are a very good team. You know that, I know that, we all know that. The question is whether or not the Mariners can beat them in a three-game set, and honestly, I feel like the answer is yes. The M’s hope to continue their winning ways right into a Wild Card spot and possibly even first place in the division. Seattle is only a game and a half behind Houston but only a game and a half ahead of the Blue Jays in the Wild Card race. Needless to say, wins in the coming days will be desperately needed, even if that means taking a couple of games off of a World Series contender.

Despite all the pressure on the Mariners, there may still be an opportunity to steal a couple of games here. The Dodgers just dropped two out of three to the Padres and currently have not announced a starting pitcher for Sunday’s game. This could be the perfect time for the Mariners to turn it on and get some much-needed wins. The Dodgers offense is certainly high-powered, second only to the Braves in run differential with +173 and currently fielding two MVP contenders in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. It would be a mistake to enter this series and think the recent slide makes them less dangerous.

However, Los Angeles’s pitching has been hit by injuries a lot this year. Like the Mariners, they’ve had to make do with a plethora of prospects, and as we’ve seen first-hand, these prospects can get exhausted in the later parts of the season. If the Mariners can get past the Dodgers thin starting pitching early in the game, they may just be able to grab two games in this series. As a team, the Dodgers are sitting 15th in earned runs, 17th in innings pitched, and 16th in ERA. Knocking out the starters early may be the key to the Mariners’ success.

There really is no other way to say it than that the Dodgers are dangerous. They are second in every meaningful category in MLB, second in home runs, RBIs, OBP, OPS, and Slugging. Not to mention, this is a lineup that contains Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, both of whom are top 3 MVP candidates. Freeman is slashing a monstrous .337/.414/.576 and leading the league in doubles with 55, setting a new team record for doubles in a season. Betts is slashing an obscene .312/.412/.607 and leading the league in OPS and OPS+ with an OPS of just a smidge over 1.000 (1.019). On top of both of those two, you have to face Will Smith and his 120 OPS+, James Outman, who is well on his way to a top 3 Rookie of the Year finish, and J.D. Martinez, who, despite being recently injured, is still well within striking distance of 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Let’s see if the best pitching rotation in the league can hold down the second-best offense in the league.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Injuries to Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin and the legal troubles of Julio Urías have forced the Dodgers to call on their considerable minor league depth to fill out their rotation this season. Bobby Miller was Los Angeles’s top ranked pitching prospect in their organization’s preseason list and ranked 33rd overall by FanGraphs. He made his major league debut in late May and has been a linchpin on their pitching staff ever since. He has a plus fastball with elite velocity and real bat-missing characteristics; it’s velocity sits just under triple-digits and he’s able to maintain that velocity throughout long starts. He also has three above average to plus secondary pitches to round out his deep repertoire.

At this point, Clayton Kershaw’s Hall of Fame trajectory is all but assured. He’s arguably the best pitcher of his generation and he’s hardly slowed down as he’s advanced in age. He’s just 70 strikeouts short of 3,000 for his career and just passed the 200 career wins milestone earlier this season. Despite a pristine 2.61 ERA, things under the hood aren’t as rosy; his FIP is at a career high 4.10 thanks to a spike in walk rate and home runs allowed. Even more concerning is a shoulder injury that sidelined him for more than a month earlier this year. That injury has flared up again recently; his fastball velocity has dropped precipitously over his last two starts and his start on Saturday is the result of his schedule being pushed back to help him recover.

Emmet Sheehan is another one of Los Angeles’s prospects that has been forced into frontline duty this year. He has a good fastball that he leans on pretty heavily, throwing it more than 60% of the time. His heater has some pretty good physical characteristics that point to future success, but he throws it so often that batters are able to figure it out after they’ve seen it a bunch. His best secondary pitch is a parachute changeup that has a 11.5 mph velocity differential off his fastball. His slider is also developing nicely and provides another solid weapon against right-handed batters. Right now, his pitch mix is far too fastball dependent but his two solid secondary offerings indicate a bright future if he’s able to make the necessary adjustments to feature them.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers emphatically and thoroughly dismantled the Blue Jays in a four-game sweep in Toronto this week. That helped Texas build a one game lead over the M’s in the Wild Card race and pushed the Blue Jays to 1.5 games back. The Jays will hope to salvage their homestand this weekend in a three-game series against the Red Sox while the Rangers travel to Cleveland to face the Guardians. The A’s were able to play spoiler this week, winning two of three from the Astros in Houston; the ‘Stros will travel to Kansas City this weekend. At the top of the Wild Card race, the Rays and Orioles began a huge four-game series yesterday that should go a long way towards determining which of those two teams will earn a first-round bye in the playoffs as the AL East division leader. Tampa struck first with a win yesterday and they’re now just a game behind Baltimore.