Series Preview: Mariners (76-57) at Mets (61-73)

The Mariners face the Mets this weekend for the one and only time this year, playing three in Queens. On the one hand, the M’s come into the series in first place in the AL West, having just set the franchise records for wins in a single month with 21. On the other hand, George Kirby missed a start with an undisclosed illness, Julio is experiencing ongoing foot pain from a pinched nerve, and Ty France sustained a wrist contusion from a hit by pitch earlier this week. Buckle up, for September has arrived and every deal is a big deal!

The Mets started 2023 with a record-breaking payroll and high hopes. They had added to their exciting core, bringing in starters Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga, and had a chance to be one of the best teams in the game. A crushing blow knocked them sideways before the season started, however, when star closer and former Mariner Edwin Diaz suffered a torn patellar tendon during a post-game celebration at the World Baseball Classic. I truly cannot highly enough recommend NOT watching a video of that moment; it was devastating. Since then, the Mets have disappointed by being mediocre. They’re below .500, last in the NL East, and 8.5 games out of the NL Wild Card spots. Verlander was traded at the deadline for the Astros’ best prospect Drew Gilbert, now with the Mets’ double-A affiliate. By late July it was clear that the Mets weren’t making the playoffs, so they also dealt future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, reliever David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, Dominic Leone, and Eduardo Escobar.

The Mets were 11-18 in August, and it’s thanks to them that the Rangers are one game behind the Mariners in the West; that one game is the one the Mets managed to win in their series against Texas this week.

The Mets have a lot of recognizable names in their lineup. Some are all-MLB stars, like Francisco Lindor, who leads the team with 5.2 fWAR. Some have nationally-recognized lore, like Pete Alonso and his third-in-MLB 39 home runs. Some are beloved former Mariners, like Daniel Vogelbach and Omar Narváez . Lindor, Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo are bats to be wary of any day of the year. DJ Stewart is on a hot hot streak lately in particular; he’s only played in 36 games this year, but has a 172 wRC+ and is getting more play since Canha was traded and Starling Marte went on the IL with a groin strain. New York is reportedly calling up their number four prospect for this series, so keep an eye out for the possible major league debut of infielder Ronnie Mauricio.

Probable Pitchers

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• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Kodai Senga’s successful transition to the major leagues has been one of the very few things that’s gone right for the Mets this year. An 11-year veteran of the NPB, he’s been New York’s best starting pitcher this season, surpassing both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander when they were rotation-mates. His signature pitch is a forkball that possesses the single highest whiff rate of any pitch thrown in the majors this year, just a hair over 60%. He doesn’t really have a good breaking pitch in his arsenal, but he’s managed to get by with a solid fastball and his elite ghost fork. Walks have been a bit of a concern, like they were in Japan, but he’s managed to avoid significant damage despite the added traffic on the bases.

David Peterson has been a solid up-and-down starter for the Mets over the past few years even if his overall results have been rather inconsistent. Last year, he posted a 3.83 ERA backed by a 3.64 FIP, both career-bests, thanks to a 27.8% strikeout rate and a low home run rate. Both of those metrics have regressed back towards where they were in 2021 which has sabotaged any progress he had made last year. The culprit might be a new reliance on his sinker instead of his four-seam fastball. That’s elevated his groundball rate but it’s also come with a huge increase in hard hit batted balls. His slider is legitimately a plus-plus pitch but poor command and his contact issues have prevented him from truly becoming a full-time starter in the majors.

It seemed like Tylor Megill was in the midst of an early season breakout last year — he had compiled a 2.43 ERA backed by a 2.45 FIP through his first six starts thanks to a significant increase in fastball velocity. Unfortunately, a serious back injury derailed his promising season and he’s lost all the velocity gains he had enjoyed last year. His fastball has lost a bunch of carry and it’s shape is now pretty hittable. His slider and changeup both had new looks last year and they’re still effective pitches, but he relies so heavily on his heater that he’s simply getting hit too hard too early in the count.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners and Houston are tied for first in the AL West after Houston swept the Red Sox earlier this week. Houston hosts the Yankees this weekend while Boston, now 6.5 games out of the Wild Card, takes on the Royals. The Rangers, just a game back of the Astros and Mariners, host the Twins this weekend. The Rays two-game sweep of the Marlins this week solidifies their hold on the first Wild Card spot, and they can further that lead as they play the Guardians. Toronto has a chance to fight their way back into a Wild Card spot if they’re able to beat up on the Rockies starting today.