Series Preview: Mariners (62-52) vs. Orioles (71-44)

This might be the biggest series of the season, and it has nothing to do with the baseball games being played. It’s Félix Hernández Mariners Hall of Fame weekend, baby! M’s Hall of Fame inductions are always a treat, and this time we honor the King himself. Friday is Fireworks night, Saturday is the Induction (sold out), and Sunday is Bobblehead day. It feels right to head into Félix weekend high on pitching, with Logan Gilbert’s gem Tuesday and Emerson Hancock’s debut Wednesday top of mind. The Mariners have won seven in a row and six series in a row, but momentum alone won’t be enough to vanquish the league-leading Baltimore Orioles (more on the Birds below). Next week the M’s head to the middle of the country for a two week, three team road trip– let’s send them off with jubilation.

As mentioned above, the Orioles sit atop the AL East, with the best record in the AL at 71-44. For a club projected to be below .500 prior to Opening Day, it’s been a wild ride. The team is young, and their window seems to be opening earlier than expected. The bats are nearly all hitting above league average, rookie Grayson Rodriguez is back in the starting rotation, and closer Félix Bautista continues to dazzle with an FIP of 1.83 and 31 saves. Baltimore is 6-3 in August so far, having won a series against the Blue Jays, swept the Mets, and lost two of three to the Astros. One of those losses came on a rare blown save for Bautista, who gave up a grand slam to Kyle Tucker. The single win against Houston allowed the Orioles to add to their post-WWII MLB record 76 series without getting swept. Given their record, Baltimore is now in Magic Number Countdown territory, with 96.6% playoff odds according to Fangraphs.

The last time the Mariners and Orioles faced off, in late June, the Orioles won two of three but were outscored 19-10. Outfielder Anthony Santander went 6-for-12 against the M’s pitching, and will be one to watch this weekend.

The negative Orioles news of late has centered around a PR kerfuffle in which the org suspended popular broadcaster Kevin Brown for … sharing facts on air about how much better the Orioles are this year than in previous years, including information about their recent struggles at Tropicana Field? For more coverage of that mess, read this article and this analysis from our sister site, Camden Chat.

The Orioles most valuable player by fWAR is also their leadoff hitter, sophomore catcher Adley Rutschman. Rutschman boasts a 124 wRC+ and a low 14.8% strikeout rate. Outfielders Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins II, and Austin Hays, too, have wRC+ in the 110-120 range, with Santander being the most consistent hitter and the most powerful of the three (he leads the Orioles with 20 home runs). Mullins has been out since mid-July with a right adductor groin strain, but has completed a rehab assignment and is likely to be back in the lineup in Seattle. This will be a major upgrade since his replacement, 2021 first round draft pick Colton Cowser, has struggled mightily in his first 25 games in the bigs. Rookie shortstop Gunnar Henderson is having a very good debut season, and the rest of the infield (including Mariners’ 2022 headache Adam Frazier) are regular contributors keeping the lineup from having any gaping holes.

Since July 1, however, the standout offensive leader for the Orioles has been designated hitter/first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle had a dismal first half, spending a portion of it on the injured list with vertigo. Since his recovery, however, he’s been dazzling, putting up a 206 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, and a .412 average since July 1. Here’s an article from our sister site breaking down what’s working.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

From a previous series preview:

Kyle Gibson is the perfect kind of veteran starter for Baltimore. Able to eat innings while their young pitching prospects continued to develop, he also had enough recent success that you could squint and see a productive season if everything went right for the Orioles. And that’s exactly what’s happened this year. Gibson has continued the success that led to his All-Star season in 2021, though the exact shape of his peripherals are a little different. His strikeout rate has fallen by nearly three points but those losses have been offset by a home run rate that’s also fallen thanks to the enormous confines of his new home stadium.

The Mariners knocked Gibson around in their last meeting, scoring five runs on seven hits and three walks in just three innings.

You may remember Cole Irvin from his time with the A’s the past two seasons (or for making the regrettable mistake of underestimating the Mariners). He was traded to the Orioles in the offseason and has bounced between the majors and Triple-A as the sixth man in Baltimore’s rotation. He’s enjoyed a slight bump in fastball velocity this year, though some of that can be chalked up to being used out of the bullpen after the All-Star break. His strikeout rate has jumped to a career-high 20.1% with a pretty significant jump in whiff rate on his sinker and cutter. That’s been offset by an increase in walk rate leading to an overall strikeout-to-walk ratio right in line with his career norms.

From a previous series preview:

Kyle Bradish made his major league debut last season to mixed results. A fantastic slider that produced plenty of swings and misses was undermined by a too-hittable fastball. Opposing batters slugged over .500 off his heater and he wasn’t generating an above average whiff rate to offset all that hard contact. This year, he’s deemphasized his four-seamer in favor of his sinker. That’s helped him manage his contact a bit more, but it hasn’t helped his ability to strike batters out. Right now, he has one swing-and-miss pitch and a handful of other pitches that he’s using to try and get to his slider once he’s ahead.

Bradish was brilliant against the Mariners back in June, allowing just two runs in seven innings while striking out seven.

The Big Picture:

It turns out when you win seven games in a row, you gain some ground in the standings. The Mariners are now 5.5 games back in the division and 1.5 (!) out of the third Wild Card spot, thanks to a Blue Jays loss on our off day yesterday. We’re also five full games ahead of the Angels, which I have to admit feels pretty great. Series to keep an eye on this weekend include: In the AL West, the Rangers play three in San Francisco, while the Astros (Wild Card #2) and the Angels play three in Houston. The Wild Card #1 Rays just lost two of three to the Cardinals, and host the Guardians starting today. The Blue Jays hold on to Wild Card #3 after splitting four games with the aforementioned Guardians, and host the Cubs this weekend. The Red Sox and Yankees are a few games behind Seattle in the playoff race: they open series today against the Tigers and Marlins.