Series Preview: Mariners (46-46) vs. Twins (48-46)

A series loss to the Tigers was a pretty disappointing way to start the second half of the season. At some point, this agonizing flirtation with .500 is going to sink the Mariners season. They’re still within striking distance of a playoff spot but something will need to change soon if they really want to make a run for it this year. Here’s Paul Sewald telling it like it is after yesterday’s victory:

In so many ways, the Twins are built exactly like the Mariners, only they have the benefit of playing in the weakest division in baseball. Both teams have elite pitching staffs that are carrying much of the load this season — they rank first and second in strikeout-to-walk ratio and in park-adjusted FIP — and both teams have been sunk by inconsistent and frustrating offenses — they rank first and second in strikeout rate and sport matching 99 wRC+s. Minnesota’s run differential is one run higher than Seattle’s but the midwest team is currently in first place in their division, 2.5 games ahead of the Guardians, while the Mariners are stuck in third place in the AL West behind two extremely strong teams.

Carlos Correa’s struggles this year have rightly received most of the attention when it comes to the Twins disappointing offense. A foot issue has certainly impacted his ability to hit consistently, though it should be noted that most of his batted ball peripherals seem to be in line with his career norms and a career-low .276 BABIP seems to be the root of a lot of his struggles. The focus on Correa’s down season has masked some of the problems the Twins’ other superstar is suffering through. In an effort to keep Byron Buxton on the field as much as possible, he has spent the entire season as Minnesota’s regular designated hitter. Unfortunately, the prodigious power he’s shown over the last three years hasn’t shown up this season. He’s still striking out at an extremely high rate and his batted ball peripherals look solid, but his isolated power is only .218, 100 points lower than his recent three-year average.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Since joining the Twins last year, Sonny Gray has evolved as a pitcher. He’s gained a much greater understanding of his pitch arsenal and how each pitch plays off each other. He’s even added a cutter to his repertoire to split the difference between his fastballs and his breaking balls. That new pitch sits in the perfect middle zone between his other pitches, giving him multiple layers of movement and velocity within his arsenal to keep batters off balance. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is right in line with his career norms but his ability to generate weak contact has improved tremendously. With such diversity in his pitch mix, batters have been simply unable to barrel up any of his pitches with regularity and he’s reaped the rewards.

Bailey Ober’s season is the perfect example of how deep the Twins starting rotation has been this year. He started the year off in the minor leagues and didn’t claim a regular role in the majors until Tyler Mahle was lost for the season with an elbow injury. Since then, he’s posted the same strikeout-to-walk ratio and FIP as Pablo López across 14 starts. Ober’s gigantic 6-foot-9 frame helps him impart a ton of effective velocity on his pitches, with his elite extension “adding” more than 2 mph in perceived velocity. That, combined with some pretty good carry, allows his fastball to play up well over its below average velocity. He revamped his slider in the middle of his rookie season in 2021 and that breaking ball has been a standout pitch for him ever since. He also possesses a fantastic changeup that he uses to keep left-handed batters at bay.

Kenta Maeda was the Cy Young runner-up in 2020 in his first season in Minnesota but injured his elbow the following year and missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery. He was healthy to start the season but missed two more months after straining his triceps in late April. His ERA is heavily skewed by a 10-run disaster against the Yankees in which he injured his arm — remove that game from his ledger and his ERA falls to 3.27. He’s lost a bit of velocity thanks to all those troubles with his arm but his three primary pitches have continued to be pretty effective.

Pablo López was the Twins headlining acquisition in the big offseason trade that sent Luis Arraez to Miami. Amazingly enough, both players represented their new teams at the All-Star Game. While his actual results have been inconsistent this year — just look at his two starts bookending the All-Star break for example: a complete game shutout against the Royals on July 5 followed by a seven-run stinker against the A’s on July 15 — López’s peripherals are better than ever. He’s running a career-high strikeout rate thanks to a new sweeper he added to his repertoire this year. Paired with his excellent fastball and changeup, that gives him three consistent weapons to attack batters with.

The Big Picture:

Seattle’s little faceplant against the Tigers was ill-timed, as their proximity to the top of the division has waned. The Rangers swept the Guardians, ostensibly hurting a Wild Card competitor but on the whole putting Seattle in a greater bind. They’ll now face a gauntlet of good teams, followed by a slate of massively underwhelming ones, hosting the Rays and Dodgers before taking on the Astros, Padres, and White Sox. The Astros took two of three from the Angels in a see-saw series and now get a squishy road trip to Colorado and Oakland for six games. Anaheim faces down a pivotal final two weeks before the trade deadline by continuing their homestand with the Yankees and Pirates. Oakland hosts Boston and the Astros, which is bad news for Seattle by extension.