Series Preview: Mariners (45-44) vs. Tigers (39-50)

After cruising into the All-Star break with three straight series wins, the Mariners hope to carry over that momentum into the second half of the season. They’ll start with a long 10-game homestand against the Tigers, Twins, and Blue Jays. That’s a pretty forgiving set of opponents and it gives the M’s an opportunity to continue climbing up the standings. They’re four games out of a postseason berth and will need to leapfrog three teams to get there. FanGraphs gives them a 22.3% chance of making the playoffs while Baseball Prospectus is a little more pessimistic at 18.8%. With two and a half weeks until the trade deadline, this homestand will go a long way towards determining whether or not the Mariners view themselves as true contenders down the stretch run.

The Mariners played the Tigers back in mid-May and took two of three from them in Detroit. Since then, they’ve gone 21-29, battling over third place in the AL Central with the equally disappointing White Sox. Despite their record, there are some signs of progress in Detroit. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have continued to hit relatively well and the former was just activated off the IL prior to the All-Star break. They also got Eduardo Rodriguez and Tarik Skubal back from their respective injuries to bolster their starting rotation. If you squint enough, you could see how the Tigers could be a nuisance for other American League teams this summer as they try and play spoiler while continuing to develop their youngsters.

While Greene’s and Torkelson’s development are linchpins to the Tigers future, there are a number of role players who are enjoying some quiet success this year. Matt Vierling came over during the offseason in the Gregory Soto trade and he’s done well as a super-utility man in his first year in Detroit. He’s played five different positions capably while producing a 116 wRC+ at the plate. Another utility guy who has been producing recently is Andy Ibáñez. Since the beginning of June, he’s produced a 131 wRC+ while playing five different positions. Vierling has a better shot of being a key member of the next competitive team in Detroit since he’s three years younger than Ibáñez, but they’re both making up for some pretty disappointing offensive performances elsewhere on the roster right now.

Probable Pitchers

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• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Eduardo Rodriguez enjoyed a fantastic start to the season, compiling a 2.13 ERA and a 3.16 FIP through his first 11 starts of the year. Unfortunately, a finger injury derailed his season and he missed all of June. His success this year is a return to form after a rough introduction to Detroit after signing a big five-year deal in 2022. The biggest difference for him is much better command of his entire repertoire; he’s been able to dot his cutter on the edges of the strike zone to both left- and right-handed batters while burying his changeup effectively against righties. He returned from the IL right before the All-Star break but struggled in a start against the A’s, allowing five runs in four innings pitched.

This year’s most unlikely All-Star was Michael Lorenzen. Both Rodriguez and Greene had strong arguments to be selected if they hadn’t been injured for all of June and so Lorenzen was picked thanks to his health. In actuality, he’s been a perfectly acceptable mid-rotation starter for Detroit, posting a 4.03 ERA backed by a 4.17 FIP. After returning to the rotation last year with the Angels, he’s improved his walk rate considerably this season while keeping his strikeout rate relatively stable.

With injuries and ineffectiveness decimating the Tigers stable of young starters, it’s surprising to see Reese Olson enjoying the most success out of all of them. He was ranked 12th in their organization by FanGraphs with some real concerns about his ability to command his fastball dragging down his outlook. He’s managed to address that concern in the majors, posting a 6.0% walk rate in the big leagues after compiling a 10.2% career walk rate in the minors. With his four-seamer now filling up the strike zone, he’s been able to rely on two outstanding secondary pitches to attack batters once ahead in the count. His best pitch is his slider that possesses excellent two-plane movement along with a diving changeup that has earned a swing and a miss almost half the time batters offer at it.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners hot streak combined with the Angels annual dive down the standings mean that Seattle enters the second half of the season in third place in the AL West, four games behind the Astros. The Rangers also struggled to close the first half of the season; they haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the White Sox back on June 19–21. Texas starts off the second half with a three-game series against the AL Central-leading Guardians. The Astros travel to Anaheim to play the Angels while Oakland hosts the Twins this weekend.