Series Preview: Mariners (37-39) vs. Nationals (30-47)

The Mariners were so close to showing some actual positive signs on offense last week. The two double-digit run totals on Thursday and Friday got their run differential back into the positive side of the ledger but they still wound up losing four of their six games on their road trip. This series against the Nationals is their last chance to beat up on a weaker ballclub before the All-Star break; they have the Rays, Giants, and Astros lined up after this.

The Nationals have fallen quickly after their World Series victory back in 2019. The only players remaining from that championship roster are Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, and Victor Robles. Over the last three seasons, they’ve embraced a full tear down, trading away Trea Turner, Max Scherzer, and Juan Soto for a huge haul of prospects. Most of those youngsters are still developing in the minor leagues which means the 2023 roster is in the weird middleground between rebuilding and the forthcoming youth movement. They haven’t been as bad as expected thanks to some strong years from a few veterans and a handful of smaller breakouts. Still, it’s going to be a while until they’re truly ready to climb out of this valley.

As a team, the Nationals are incredibly difficult to strike out. They’ve embraced a heavy contact focused approach at the plate leading to the lowest team strikeout rate and the second lowest team walk rate in the majors. Unfortunately, without much power in their lineup, their team batting average is a pretty empty .262. The best batter in their lineup has been Lane Thomas who has shown consistent growth since coming over from the Cardinals back in 2021. He’s hitting for more power than ever before and he still has two more years of team control left. It’s possible he’ll be the elder statesman on the next competitive Nationals roster. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams, two young prospects who are already contributing in the big leagues, have struggled this year. The latter just hasn’t been able to get on base consistently to utilize his plus speed while the former hasn’t found a way to translate his power breakout from 2021.

Probable Pitchers

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Trevor Williams found himself at the center of some controversy earlier this year when he made some insensitive and unsympathetic comments about the Dodgers Pride Night celebration. On the mound, he certainly hasn’t done much to standout. A journeyman who is on his fourth team in four years, he’s well established as a swingman who can eat innings out of the rotation or the bullpen. He has a trio of secondary pitches that he mixes in around his fastball, with his gyro slider being the best of the bunch. He fills the zone with his pitches but none of them earn enough swings and misses to truly be effective.

Jake Irvin made his major league debut this year after quickly rising through the Nationals farm system. His 6-foot-6 frame helps him gain an above average amount of extension on his pitches, imparting a healthy amount of perceived velocity to his fastball that already sits in the mid-90s. He mixes in a slurvy curveball as his best secondary pitch, though some release point inconsistency makes it pretty easy to pick up out of his hand. He doesn’t really have a third pitch at this point in his development; he’s dabbled with a changeup but has struggled with the feel for that pitch making it a distant third option in his arsenal.

It’s been a long time since Patrick Corbin was the Nationals number 1C behind their 1A and 1B in Scherzer and Strasburg. After signing a huge six-year deal with Washington in 2019 and helping them win a World Series, he hit a wall — possibly due to overuse during their championship run — and hasn’t recovered. His signature slider is still a pretty effective pitch but opposing batters are absolutely crushing his fastballs which makes it hard to get to his breaking ball during at bats. To make matters worse, he doesn’t really have a great option to keep right-handed batters at bay with a mediocre changeup his best option in his repertoire. That means his platoon splits have been pretty lopsided.

The Big Picture:

The three teams ahead of the Mariners in the AL West all lost their weekend series which means the standings stayed static. The Rangers couldn’t get their offense going in New York and return home to face the Tigers this week. The Astros barely avoided a three-game sweep by the Dodgers, winning their game on Sunday in 11 innings, and travel to St. Louis next. The Angels outscored the Rockies 32-12 over the weekend thanks to a lopsided 25-1 score in their record-breaking victory on Saturday but wound up losing two of three anyway; they’ll limp home to host the White Sox.