Series Preview: Mariners (36-37) at Orioles (45-28)

The Mayo Clinic recommends a multi-pronged approach for treating whiplash, including rest, exercises to restore range of motion, and use of a foam collar to ensure stability. After two mind-numbing losses to the Yankees followed by a chaos-fueled 10-2 win, don’t be surprised if you see the Mariners sporting these as they roll into Camden Yards today. The Mariners face Baltimore for the first of two three-game series in 2023; the Orioles will come to T-Mobile Park August 11th-13th for Félix Hernández Mariners Hall of Fame Induction Weekend. The celebration will be fit for a King (get your tickets here if you’d like to be there for the party).

Prior to Opening Day, Baltimore was projected to be a below-.500 club in 2023, with inferior results to the 2022 team (who won 83 games and missed the postseason). So far, the team is significantly outperforming expectations, with a .616 record and a five-game lead in the AL Wild Card race as June comes to a close. One explanation for the difference between expectations and reality is that the Orioles bet on their young players, and it’s paid off. Rather than make major offensive off-season signings, Baltimore brought on free agents Kyle Gibson (their Opening Day starting pitcher) and Mariners 2022 disappointment Adam Frazier. They counted on rookie infielder Gunnar Henderson (an all-MLB top prospect who debuted in August 2022), sophomore catcher Adley Rutschman (who racked up 5.3 fWAR in 2022 and came in second in AL Rookie of the Year voting), and starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez (who debuted early this season) to carry the team. Rodriguez struggled over six starts in April/May and is back down in Triple-A working things out, but otherwise the young players are leading the Orioles to success. Another key to the team’s success is closer Félix Bautista; with his 1.60 FIP and 20 saves in 34.2 innings, Bautista is one of the top relievers in the game.

The Orioles had a rough weekend against the Cubs last weekend, but then split a two-game set in Tampa this week– that’s a victory considering the Rays’ ridiculous 32-9 home record! The team will be well-rested coming into their series against the M’s, having had two off days this week.

The Orioles have a strong lineup with a few offensive holes. Those come at second base and shortstop, where Adam Frazier and Jorge Mateo are batting below league average. Watch out for Mateo if he gets on base, though; he leads Baltimore with 20 stolen bases on the year. Two of Baltimore’s starters are on the ten-day Injured List: center fielder Cedric Mullins II and first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, both of whom began rehab assignments Wednesday and could return to the team any day. Mullins has a 133 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR on the year, but replacement Aaron Hicks is playing well in his absence. Hopes were not high for Hicks’ production, but the veteran has put up a 178 wRC+in a small sample size of 18 games. Mountcastle, on the other hand, was not having a good season before his injury, with negative fWAR on the year. Ryan O’Hearn is filling in for him and also has a sky-high 173 wRC+ in 31 games.

The Orioles’ offensive leaders this year are their two young stars and a more-tenured outfielder having a breakout season. Adley Rutschman is having no sophomore slump, with ten home runs, a 15% walk rate, and a 127 wRC+. Rookie Gunnar Henderson is having as good a start to the season, with eleven homers and a wRC+ of 124. The top hitter, though, is left fielder Austin Hays, who now leads the team with 2fWAR and has a 143 wRC+ across a sizable sample. See our sibling site’s breakdown of what’s going right for Hays this year and why he’s not getting the attention he deserves for it.

Probable Pitchers

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• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Gibson is the perfect kind of veteran starter for Baltimore. Able to eat innings while their young pitching prospects continued to develop, he also had enough recent success that you could squint and see a productive season if everything went right for the Orioles. And that’s exactly what’s happened this year. Gibson has continued the success that led to his All-Star season in 2021, though the exact shape of his peripherals are a little different. His strikeout rate has fallen by nearly three points but those losses have been offset by a home run rate that’s also fallen thanks to the enormous confines of his new home stadium.

Dean Kremer took a big step forward last year after a couple of brief stints in the majors over the previous two seasons. The biggest contributor to his success was a walk rate that fell by nearly four points even though he wasn’t throwing in the zone any more often than before. He’s also enjoyed an uptick in fastball velocity over the last two seasons, turning it into a real weapon for him. His secondary offerings are a mixed bag with a cutter and sinker comprising the bulk of his pitch mix when he’s not throwing his four-seamer. He has introduced a sweeper into his repertoire this year, potentially giving him a breaking ball to pair with all of his hard pitches.

Kyle Bradish made his major league debut last season to mixed results. A fantastic slider that produced plenty of swings and misses was undermined by a too-hittable fastball. Opposing batters slugged over .500 off his heater and he wasn’t generating an above average whiff rate to offset all that hard contact. This year, he’s deemphasized his four-seamer in favor of his sinker. That’s helped him manage his contact a bit more, but it hasn’t helped his ability to strike batters out. Right now, he has one swing-and-miss pitch and a handful of other pitches that he’s using to try and get to his slider once he’s ahead.

The Big Picture:

The top three teams in the AL West have held steady this week, while the Mariners and Athletics gently continue to fall. The A’s were swept by the Guardians this week and play three games in Toronto starting today. The Angels, too, were swept this week, in their case by their cross-town rival Dodgers, and head northeast to take on the Rockies this weekend. The Astros and Rangers both won two of three this week, against the Mets and White Sox, respectively. Houston plays the Dodgers and Texas the Yankees this weekend, both for three game sets.