Series Preview: Mariners (54-45) at Astros (64-35)

When you’re in the middle of a grueling stretch against some of the best teams in the league, and there’s a soft series in between, it’s so important to be able to take care of business to avoid falling into a deep spiral. That’s exactly what the Mariners did against the Rangers this week. Following up their disappointing sweep at the hands of the Astros with three straight wins was exactly what the team needed — and it helped that Julio Rodríguez returned from his minor wrist injury to make a big impact in two of those wins too.

This seven-game road trip will almost certainly be the most difficult stretch the Mariners face for the rest of the season. They’ll begin with a four-game set against the Astros and then head to New York to face the Yankees for three. It’s a mid-season preview of some potential playoff opponents should the Mariners make it into the postseason. If they flop, it won’t mark the end of their season — they’ve built enough of a cushion in the Wild Card race and their remaining schedule is so soft — but it is a good test for how they matchup with the best teams in the AL.

In this week’s edition of “You Can’t Predict Baseball,” the Astros followed up their three-game sweep of the Mariners by getting swept in three games in Oakland; it was the first time Houston had been swept this year. Among the four other division rivals, the A’s now hold the best record against the ‘stros this year at 6-6. The Mariners now head to Houston to face the same three starters they faced in that series in Seattle last weekend plus Jake Odorizzi.

Not much has changed with the Astros lineup since they were in Seattle; it’s one of the most consistent lineups in the majors with everyone nearly cemented into their roles. First base has been an issue for them this season. At 38 years old, Yuli Gurriel is having trouble following up his career year in 2021. Through the first three months of the season, he had produced just a 89 wRC+ and was batting just .226 after leading the AL in that category last year. He’s been a bit better in July, slashing .274/.329/.411 (114 wRC+).

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

From a previous series preview:

José Urquidy has always shown a ton of promise with a solid four-pitch arsenal, but has struggled to put everything together in a full season. Injuries have certainly played a part in that, but he’s also failed to maximize all of his strengths to rack up strikeouts. During his debut season in 2019, both his curveball and slider ran whiff rates north of 40%. Neither pitch has reached those lofty levels since then and it’s a big reason why his strikeout rate hasn’t come close to matching the 24% he posted during that first season. He does possess phenomenal control, so even if he’s not K’ing batters, he’s still keeping them from taking free passes. That’s critical to his success because can also be pretty homer prone.

Urquidy finally solved the Mariners last weekend, holding them to just a single run in six innings of work.

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From a previous series preview:

At 39 years old, Justin Verlander is attempting to do something nearly unprecedented in major league history: successfully return from elbow surgery at an extremely advanced age. He made one start in 2020 before succumbing to Tommy John surgery; it was just the second major injury of his career and he became the second oldest starter to ever undergo the procedure. He had thrown more than 200 innings in every season of his career except two up to that point. During the offseason, the Astros signed him to a one-year, $25 million deal with a player option for 2023. The Astros clearly expect him to pick up right where he left off.

Verlander has featured in all six series against the Mariners this season. He was completely dominant against them in his last outing, only getting into trouble in the seventh inning. He escaped after allowing just a single run to score.

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From a previous series preview:

Framber Valdez made a significant adjustment to his approach in 2020, filling the strike zone with his pitches to combat his lackluster command. His walk rate dropped to 5.6% that year, though it hasn’t been that low since. He’s pitching in the zone higher than ever before this year, though his walk rate is a little bit worse than league average. Instead, it’s meant that batters are putting the ball in play off him at a higher rate, which for Valdez is a pretty good outcome. More than two-thirds of the ball batters put in play off his pitches are on the ground, easily the highest groundball rate in the majors and close to a historic high. With a phenomenal defensive infield behind him, all that weak groundball contact has resulted in a fantastic season for the 28-year-old.

Valdez stifled the Mariners over six innings and only ran into trouble in the seventh like Verlander the day before.

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From a previous series preview:

Jake Odorizzi has struggled through a wonky path through the middle of his career. A top prospect with the Rays to start, he never really put everything together in Tampa Bay. His big breakout came in Minnesota in 2019; he posted a career-high 27.1% strikeout rate that year and 4.3 fWAR. He was tagged with a qualifying offer that offseason and accepted it, returning to the Twins on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, injuries cost him most of the shortened 2020 season, making just four starts for Minnesota. He signed a two-year deal with the Astros late last spring but a handful of minor injuries again held him back from repeating the success he enjoyed in 2019. With a prototypical modern fastball with tons of carry, he’s been a bit homer prone in his career. His secondary offerings are all inconsistent at best, making him overly reliant on his heater.

Odorizzi faced the A’s in three straight starts prior to this series. He was dealing with a blister on his throwing hand during his last start and Oakland took advantage, scoring six runs off him. He held the Mariners scoreless across 6.2 innings back in May in his last start against Seattle.

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The Big Picture:

The Mariners regained some ground in the Wild Card race after their sweep of the Rangers, sitting just a half game behind the Blue Jays for the top spot and three games ahead of the Guardians, the best non-playoff team currently. With the trade deadline looming after this weekend, there could be some big shake ups in the playoff races come next week.

Toronto split a two-game series with the Cardinals at home this week and will host the Tigers for four games this weekend. The Orioles managed to take three of four from the Rays this week and have now bypassed the Red Sox in the AL East standings. It’s impossible to tell what they’ll do at the trade deadline. They’ll head to Cincinnati while Tampa Bay returns home to host the Guardians. Cleveland will wrap up their four-game series against the Red Sox this afternoon and then Boston will host the Brewers this weekend. The White Sox split their two-game series in Colorado earlier this week and will host the suddenly red hot A’s for three games beginning tomorrow.

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