Series Preview: Mariners (47-42) at Rangers (41-45)

The Mariners arrive in Texas riding a ten-game win streak (the team’s first since 2002). Suspensions, postponed games, and All Star snubs haven’t stopped Seattle from clawing their way back up the Wild Card standings. They now sit in a three-way tie for the second and third Wild Card spots with the Red Sox and Blue Jays; It’s an electrifying time to be a Mariners fan!

This is the final series for the red-hot Mariners before the All-Star Break. There’s always a risk that the team loses some momentum in the four days without a game, but hopefully the non-Julio Rodriguez players will benefit from the extra rest and the team will return refreshed and joined by Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis (both of whom could be activated after the break). The Mariners are back home hosting the Astros for their next series, and then will face these Rangers again starting on the 25th. Though the weeks following the break will be challenging, John’s got some reassuring news about the rest of the schedule.

Texas has gone just under .500 since last facing the Mariners at the start of June, falling to third in the division. After finishing last in the AL West with 102 losses in 2021, the Rangers bought aggressively last offseason, signing several star free agents to multi-year contracts. Their most notable additions were Corey Seager (ten years), Marcus Semien (seven years), and John Gray (four years). The front office didn’t bill this year as a championship contention year, but as a re-shaping of the team around a new core, with an eye to a run in 2023 and beyond. Halfway through the season, that rings true. The Rangers have a good-hitting lineup, with six of their regular starting nine above 100 in wRC+ (and four of those above 120). However, they’re five games under .500 and 4.5 games back of a wild card spot. Their starting pitching depth is much weaker than their batting and will require bolstering before a championship run in the next few years.

Last we saw the Rangers, Kole Calhoun and Jonah Heim were driving the team’s offense, with Semien just starting to get his footing on his new team. Heim continues to be a breakout star for the Rangers, but the offensive story of the last few weeks has been Corey Seager. Kyle’s Brother won AL Player of the Week last week and boasts a 219 wRC+ in July. Seager hit home runs in five consecutive games last week and the Mariners will need to be careful pitching to him. Leody Taveras, who was called up last month to play center field, has also had a breakout month, with a 190 wRC+ since July first. Missing from Texas’ lineup is Mitch Garver, who was DHing and pinch hitting through a flexor tendon injury the last couple of months. He opted to undergo season-ending surgery on Monday so he has a chance to be ready for the start of the 2023 season.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images

From a previous series preview:

Somehow, someway, Martín Pérez is leading all qualified starters in ERA this year. Across 10 starts, he’s allowed just 10 earned runs and hasn’t yet allowed a home run on the season. An effective innings eater for most of his career, Pérez has suddenly turned into a premier starter without any significant changes to his repertoire. The secret behind his success? Impeccable command. Nearly half of his pitches thrown this year have been located in the shadow zone — on the edge of the rulebook strike zone — a huge improvement in his ability to command his pitches. That has led to career-bests in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and strikeout and walk rates.

Pérez is the Rangers lone All-Star representative this year. He’s continued to pitch very well, though not up to the elite standard he established early in the season. In his last outing against the Mariners, he struck out a season-high seven batters in six innings, allowing just two runs on seven hits.

---

From a previous series preview:

A lengthy injury history delayed much of Taylor Hearn’s development as a prospect. He debuted in the majors as a 24-year-old in 2019 in a disaster of a start against the Mariners. Working out of the bullpen for all of 2020 and the first half of last year, he was finally added to the rotation in late July. It wasn’t the smoothest transition but there were some positive signs. In particular, his two fastballs had great results. His four-seamer has plenty of ride and he can consistently locate it up in the zone for whiffs. He added his sinker mid-season last year and it’s been a positive addition to his arsenal. With excellent movement in both directions, it’s become another pitch he can use to keep batters off balance. His changeup and slider lag behind the hard stuff but both graded out above average while he was a prospect.

Hearn was recently sent down to Triple-A to begin transitioning back into a multi-inning reliever, a role he filled for much of the first two seasons of his career. The Rangers haven’t announced a starter for Friday’s game but they’ll have to fill the spot with a spot starter after Dane Dunning was placed on the IL with an ankle impingement earlier this week. Hearn is a likely candidate, though A.J. Alexy was just called up from Triple-A yesterday and it’s possible he’ll make the start instead.

---

Spencer Howard was part of the return from the Phillies in last summer’s Kyle Gibson trade. A highly regarded prospect in Philadelphia’s organization, he’s struggled to find much success at the major league level. He’s bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen in his limited time in the big leagues with that lack of settled role likely contributing to his inconsistency. Last year, his pitch repertoire included six different pitches of varying quality. He’s focused his pitch mix on his fastball and cutter this year, though both pitches have been hit hard by opposing batters. The lack of secondary offerings has limited his potential ceiling since his fastball/cutter combo just doesn’t generate enough whiffs to support a successful approach.

---

From a previous series preview:

Glenn Otto was one of the headlining prospects the Rangers received in the big Joey Gallo trade last season. He racked up gaudy strikeout rates as a member of the Yankees organization and carried over those skills when he joined Texas’s farm system. He made his major league debut a month after the trade but some poor luck and bad sequencing caused his ERA to balloon to 9.26 despite a FIP that sat at a fantastic 3.17 in six starts. Despite his peripherals indicating a strong foundation, he’s struggled to follow up his debut with the same kind of success this year. The biggest issue is a walk rate that’s jumped up to 11.8% and a strikeout rate that plummeted to 19.1%.

In his last start against the Mariners, Otto allowed two runs in five innings. He gave up just two hits but his lack of control led to five walks.

---

The Big Picture:

This series pits the M’s against their closest divisional rival in the standings, with the Mariners looking to extend the gap between the two teams and the Rangers looking to close it. The Astros have one more game against the Angels and then take on Oakland for three before the All Star Break. The two teams from Los Angeles matchup in a two-game series this weekend before the festivities begin at Dodger Stadium next week.

The Rays currently hold the first AL Wild Card spot and go for a four-game sweep of the Red Sox today, after which they play three against the Orioles. The Orioles have also won ten games in a row, and take an off day today before heading to Tampa. The Red Sox and Blue Jays, with whom the Mariners have an identical record, have opposite weekend series. The Red Sox travel to New York to play the Yankees (who lead the AL East by fourteen games), while the Blue Jays stay home to host the Royals (who sit in the cellar of the AL Central).

---

SB Nation has partnered with DraftKings to sponsor select series previews this season. Here are the betting odds for this series.