Here is my second update on how Jarred’s swing decisions are trending down in AAA. Jarred had a very strong week at the plate both in terms of plate discipline and swing decisions against the Reno Aces. He even had a home run off a slider! This update shows continued progress on his improvements and the ability to bounce back after his rolling CSW% climbed a bit last week. He also started walking a little bit again, which I take as a positive sign. I am purely speculating, but I think he was getting coached to just try to get the bat on everything he saw at first and now he is back to a more normal approach.
My writeup on Jarred’s first 30 games in AAA is available
here.Update 1 is available
here.A bit on my process from the first article: I made an Excel spreadsheet and filled a few notebook pages with tallies going through every pitch he has seen in a Rainiers uniform. I am just a human tallying pitches up and though I was being careful, it is totally possible I made some mistakes. Basically, build some error bars into these numbers and don’t take them as exact, but we are here to do trend analysis anyway. Additionally, I put splitters in the fastball bucket, whereas I believe a lot of sources count the split finger fastball as an offspeed pitch, so probably a systemic error on my part (he didn’t see too many splitters anyway). For the sake of total clarity, my buckets are:
Fastballs – four seam, cutter, sinker, and splitter
Breaking – Curve, knuckle curve, slider
Offspeed – Breaking and changeups
The numbers in the tables below are up to date through the 10th of July. He has played a grand total of 41 games in AAA, with 190 plate appearances, and 726 total pitches. Of those pitches 47.5% were offspeed (345 total).
I broke the results in to two chunks to try and increase the sample size. With 41 games down in AAA, I did the first 20 games as ‘first half’ and the next 21 games as ‘second half’. I also included his most recent 10 games, which is just to show you what he has done lately with a very small sample size. I would recommend focusing mostly on the second half numbers to get an idea of how he is doing!
Plate Discipline (%)
|
First half |
Second Half |
Last 10 |
Overall |
League Avg. |
Swing% |
49.1 |
45.8 |
44.8 |
47.5 |
47.4 |
O-Swing% |
32.3 |
28.0 |
31.1 |
30.2 |
32.3 |
Z-Swing% |
71.6 |
68.2 |
66.7 |
69.9 |
69.0 |
Contact% |
67.7 |
75.5 |
77.9 |
71.6 |
76.6 |
O-Contact% |
48.6 |
55.6 |
57.6 |
52.4 |
63.6 |
Z-Contact% |
79.3 |
85.7 |
93.2 |
82.4 |
85.3 |
CSW% + Whiff%
|
First half |
Second Half |
Last 10 |
Overall |
League Avg. |
CSW% |
30.6 |
28.8 |
29.1 |
29.8 |
27.5 |
CSW%Break |
45.4 |
33.6 |
37.5 |
39.5 |
X |
CSW%Off |
42.7 |
34.8 |
39.2 |
38.6 |
X |
Whiff% |
31.7 |
26.4 |
27.3 |
29.3 |
X |
Whiff%Break |
54.2 |
42.5 |
40.0 |
48.9 |
X |
Whiff%Off |
57.4 |
43.8 |
43.8 |
52.8 |
X |
And here is a 10-game rolling CSW% graph, for the visual learners:
I will update this again on the next Rainiers off day! Let me know what you think. If there are other pieces of data you would like to see or a better way I can meaningfully present this data, let me know!
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