Series Preview: Mariners (32-39) at Angels (34-38)

The Mariners steer their ship to Anaheim for the first time this season, fueled by an exhilarating, nail-biting, and desperately needed sweep of Oakland. Having had our hearts chewed up and spat back out by the Angels last weekend, the city of Seattle seeks revenge.

After taking four of five last weekend from the M’s, the Angels played the Royals at home and lost two of three to the worst team in the AL Central. Just a game and a half behind the Angels, the M’s look to gain ground in the West if they can win the series, which feels crucial as they fight their way up toward .500 and hope for an appearance in the postseason.

The Angels were crashing and burning a week ago, reeling from 22 losses in 27 games. Before that they were atop the West and it looked like this might finally be the Angels year. Though trouncing the M’s stopped their slide, and Mike Trout hit a record-tying five home runs in that series, the Angels no longer look like a team that will coast into the playoffs. Both teams, then, have a lot riding on this series, both in terms of opportunities to climb up in the standings and in terms of proving that the good version of their team can be the real version.

This time around the Angels are playing with a shaken-up pitching staff, having sent Reid Detmers down to Triple-A Salt Lake yesterday to “work on some things” just over a month after he threw a no-hitter. Relievers Austin Warren and Jimmy Herget have both been placed on the 15-day IL, so the Mariners will face some bullpen arms newly brought up from Salt Lake, as well as a pitcher yet to be announced Sunday as the Angels make adjustments to their rotation.

Taylor Ward continues to be the Angels’ breakout start this year. Jake wrote in last week’s preview: Through May 15, he put up a ridiculous .385/.500/.747 slash line (251 wRC+) and looked like the kind of complimentary piece to the Angels’ stars they’ve been missing for so long. A series of minor injuries has limited Ward to just 14 games since that point and his ability to produce has been curtailed. While he struggled for most of the series in Seattle, Ward’s last four games have seen him head back toward his earlier levels of production, and he remains a formidable player at the top of the order.

Mike Trout continues to be hot and cold this year, but he’s tied hot streaks to Mariners series in the past, which doesn’t bode well. And of course this week we have to mention Shohei Ohtani, who set back-to-back personal records in the Royals series, following up 8 RBI one day with 13 strikeouts the next. When the top of the Angel’s lineup is healthy and producing, it’s a frightening one to face.

Probable Pitchers

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From a previous series preview:

It was impossible to predict what to expect from Michael Lorenzen in 2022. He had spent nearly his entire major league career as a reliever in Cincinnati but the Angels signed him during the offseason with the intention of using him as a starter for the first time since his rookie season back in 2015. He’s definitely surpassed all expectations across his first 10 starts of the year, posting a 3.45 ERA backed by a 3.69 FIP. His success can be traced to an improved sinker and a sweeping slider that form the backbone of his deep repertoire. Those two pitches break away from each other horizontally across the zone, giving batters fits as they try to focus on one or the other.

Lorenzen suffered through his worst start of the season during his last outing against the Mariners, the lone bright spot during that ugly five-game series last weekend. He allowed seven runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out three.

From a previous series preview:

It’s hard to figure out Patrick Sandoval. He possesses one of the best changeups in baseball with a whiff rate topping 50%. He can manipulate the pitch to generate more vertical or horizontal movement depending on what the situation calls for but the end result is usually the same: a swinging strike. He also has a pair of pretty good breaking balls with the slider being his preferred weapon against left-handed batters. The problem is his fastball. Among all four-seam fastballs thrown at least 100 times this year, his has the fourth lowest swinging strike rate of them all. That’s a big reason why his strikeout rate has fallen three points from last year despite an arsenal filled with excellent secondary weapons.

Sandoval held the Mariners to just a single run in six innings during the first game of the doubleheader last Saturday.

The Angels haven’t announced a starter for the game on Sunday but it will likely be José Suarez. He made a spot start during the second game of the doubleheader last Saturday and held the Mariners scoreless through 4.1 innings. He navigated through heavy traffic, allowing seven baserunners while striking out seven. Over his past two appearances, his changeup has been a key differentiator; the whiff rate on that pitch has been 55% recently, a huge increase from its 27.2% mark earlier in the season. If he can parlay that improvement into consistent success, he could see a return of the same kind of effectiveness he enjoyed last season.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers gained back some ground on the Astros by sweeping the Phillies in two games this week. They go on to face the plummeting Nationals, while the Astros play three more against the Yankees, who beat them by a run yesterday. After being swept by the Mariners, the Athletics find themselves definitively alone in the sub-basement of the division.

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