Series Preview: Mariners (12-13) vs. Rays (15-10)

What started as a disappointing trip to Florida ended in disaster in Houston. As encouraging as that first nine-game homestand was, this long road trip was equally discouraging. Getting shutout across two straight games against the Astros was one of those early season nadirs that we’ve become so accustomed to. And the worst part is the Mariners schedule doesn’t get any easier in May. They’ll face the Rays and the Phillies during this homestand and then travel back ot the East Coast to face the Mets, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, and will play 20 games over the next 21 days.

After struggling in Miami and Houston, the Mariners return home to face a familiar opponent. Since facing Seattle in Tampa Bay, the Rays have lost a series to the Twins and then swept the A’s in Oakland. On Tuesday, they needed a ninth-inning home run off Mike Zunino’s bat to send the game to extra innings, and then scored five runs in the top of the 10th to secure the win. Yesterday, they almost squandered Corey Kluber’s six-inning gem by scoring three runs in the eighth inning to finally pull ahead.

The biggest change to the Rays lineup since these two teams last matched up was Ji-Man Choi getting placed on the Injured List with an elbow injury. That’s moved Yandy Díaz into an everyday role at first and has allowed Taylor Walls to get regular playing time at third base and shortstop. Díaz is in the midst of a really strong start to the season. He’s always had great plate discipline, but he’s taken it to another level this year. His strikeout rate has dropped to a nice 6.9% and he’s hitting a cool .300. If only he could figure out how to elevate the ball regularly.

Probable Pitchers

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As a prospect, Shane McClanahan looked like he was on track to become a high-leverage relief option for the Rays because his fastball and slider were so strong and the other pitches in his repertoire lagged behind that elite combo. It’s a credit to him that he’s developed not only one other strong secondary option but two. His changeup and curveball are thrown almost exclusively to right-handed batters and they’ve allowed him to maintain a reasonable platoon split while giving him the full repertoire needed for starting work. Those other two pitches have been so important to him, he’s actually dropped the usage of his slider in favor of his curveball and changeup this year. Those three secondary pitches each have whiff rates over 45%, giving him a full arsenal of weapons to deploy. As a result, his strikeout rate has climbed to 39.3% this year.

From a previous series preview:

Josh Fleming relies on a bowling ball sinker that has an exceptional movement profile leading to a ton of whiffs when batters aren’t pounding it into the ground. His secondary offering lag a bit behind his fastball so if batters can lay off the sinker, they’re often able to do some damage against his cutter or changeup.

The Rays haven’t announced an opener for Fleming’s scheduled start on Friday — he was used as a traditional starter in his last turn through the rotation. He was the victim of that tough luck inning in Tampa Bay where the Mariners scored seven unearned runs against him.

From a previous series preview:

Drew Rasmussen was a key part of the Willy Adames trade last summer. With a fastball and slider heavy pitch mix, his profile fits that of a high leverage reliever. Instead, the Rays slotted him into the rotation over the last two months of the season and he thrived. His fastball is one of the best in the majors and features all the characteristics you’d expect: tons of velocity and a bunch of ride. His slider was merely okay but he’s made a bunch of changes to his breaking ball this year that’s made it even more deadly. Essentially, he’s now throwing a harder slider-cutter hybrid and a slower, sweeper with tons of horizontal movement. That gives him three distinct pitches to utilize multiple times through the order, hopefully extending his ability to accumulate quality innings in the rotation.

Rasmussen was completely dominant against the Mariners in Tampa Bay, holding them scoreless across six innings of work while striking out nine. That outing was the longest of his major league career by both innings and pitches thrown.

Ryan Yarbrough is the sort of quintessential Rays pitcher from yesteryear. With McClanahan, Rasmussen, and Shane Baz, throwing incredible stuff these days, Yarbrough’s approach has been left behind a bit. He doesn’t possess a standout pitch or impressive raw stuff. Instead, he relies on impeccable command with a repertoire that’s more than the sum of its parts. He struggled to maintain that same success last year and was sidelined to start this year with a spring groin injury. He made his first start of the season last week against the A’s and allowed five runs in 2.1 innings.

The Big Picture:

After finishing up their wrap around four-game series in Chicago with a loss on Monday, the Angels have split the first two games of a series in Boston. They won a wild back-and-forth affair last night by scoring the tying run in the ninth inning to force extra innings and then secured the win with six more runs in the 10th inning. They’ll wrap up that series today and then head back home for a three-game set against the Nationals over the weekend. Fresh off their sweep of the Mariners, the Astros host the Tigers in a four-game series this weekend. The Rangers have won four straight after sweeping the Phillies in two games. They’ll head to New York to take on the Yankees who just had their 11-game win streak snapped. After getting swept by the Rays, the A’s will head to Minnesota to take on the Twins.

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