After dropping a series to the worst team in the AL (and the worst team in baseball, coming into the series), the Mariners face off against a decidedly more stout opponent in the Boston Red Sox, who lead the Mariners in the Wild Card race by three games. The Mariners could help themselves out in this series, or they could shovel ever more dirt on their razor-thin playoff hopes after dropping a series to the worst team in baseball at playing on the road this season, seriously, guys, what the hell.
At a Glance
Red Sox |
Mariners |
Red Sox |
Mariners |
Game 1 |
Monday, September 13 | 7:10 pm |
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez |
RHP Logan Gilbert |
50% |
50% |
Game 2 |
Tuesday, September 14 | 7:10 pm |
RHP Nathan Eovaldi |
LHP Tyler Anderson |
52% |
48% |
Game 3 |
Wednesday, September 15 | 1:10 pm |
RHP Tanner Houck |
LHP Marco Gonzales |
51% |
49% |
Weirdly, the odds-makers like the Mariners least in the game where I (Kate) like the Mariners best, but maybe that’s just because Tyler Anderson hasn’t authored any particularly crushing defeats for me lately, personally. The Mariners would have missed Chris Sale anyway, but definitely will now as he, like so many other Red Sox, is on the COVID-IL.
Team Overview
Overview |
Red Sox |
Mariners |
Edge |
Overview |
Red Sox |
Mariners |
Edge |
Batting (wRC+) |
106 (5th in AL) |
92 (12th in AL) |
Red Sox |
Fielding (OAA) |
-35 (15th) |
-2 (9th) |
Mariners |
Starting Pitching (FIP-) |
95 (4th) |
111 (12th) |
Red Sox |
Bullpen (FIP-) |
95 (5th) |
86 (1st) |
Mariners |
Projected Lineup
Player |
Position |
Bats |
PA |
BABIP |
wRC+ |
BsR |
Player |
Position |
Bats |
PA |
BABIP |
wRC+ |
BsR |
Enrique Hernández |
2B |
R |
506 |
0.284 |
112 |
2.8 |
Kyle Schwarber |
LF |
L |
417 |
0.299 |
140 |
-2.5 |
Xander Bogaerts |
SS |
R |
529 |
0.333 |
131 |
1.9 |
Rafael Devers |
3B |
L |
588 |
0.303 |
132 |
0.1 |
J.D. Martinez |
DH |
R |
567 |
0.339 |
128 |
-3.1 |
Alex Verdugo |
CF |
L |
551 |
0.323 |
110 |
2.2 |
Hunter Renfroe |
RF |
R |
503 |
0.285 |
117 |
-2.7 |
Bobby Dalbec |
1B |
R |
408 |
0.326 |
105 |
-0.4 |
Christian Vázquez |
C |
R |
453 |
0.308 |
80 |
-3.8 |
Kyle Schwarber has been the best deadline deal acquisition in baseball, adding 20 points to his already-high wRC+ (157!) since trading Cubbie Blue for BoSox Red. Boston also added Enrique Hernández on an off-season deal and he is thriving, which we love for Kiké, although less for the Red Sox. Other than that, it’s pretty much the regulars who have been part of Boston’s championship run contributing at their previous peak levels: J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers have all been the best versions of themselves lately, even if some of them got off to slower starts earlier in the season, and rookies/young’uns Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec have also contributed, the latter despite a 35% K rate in his first full-time big-league action.
Probable pitchers:
Updated Stuff+ Explainer
Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters (Update: The Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters have been updated with August data)
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
136 1/3 |
27.2% |
6.7% |
14.2% |
42.4% |
5.15 |
3.55 |
Pitch |
Frequency |
Velocity |
Spin Rate |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
Four-seam |
39.1% |
92.6 |
2171 |
62 |
144 |
65 |
Sinker |
11.2% |
92.6 |
2124 |
108 |
85 |
103 |
Cutter |
17.7% |
88.4 |
2171 |
119 |
64 |
106 |
Changeup |
23.6% |
85.5 |
1885 |
98 |
86 |
113 |
Slider |
8.3% |
82.1 |
2130 |
69 |
71 |
98 |
RHP Nathan Eovaldi
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
163 2/3 |
25.2% |
4.4% |
8.7% |
41.2% |
3.57 |
2.87 |
Pitch |
Frequency |
Velocity |
Spin Rate |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
Four-seam |
42.6% |
96.9 |
2116 |
155 |
84 |
110 |
Cutter |
13.0% |
92.6 |
2277 |
126 |
69 |
98 |
Splitter |
12.4% |
88.0 |
1546 |
103 |
95 |
86 |
Curveball |
18.5% |
78.6 |
2100 |
104 |
116 |
108 |
Slider |
13.5% |
86.0 |
2160 |
116 |
100 |
99 |
RHP Tanner Houck
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
53 1/3 |
28.0% |
6.7% |
8.7% |
46.4% |
3.54 |
2.96 |
Pitch |
Frequency |
Velocity |
Spin Rate |
Stuff+ |
Whiff+ |
BIP+ |
Four-seam |
40.3% |
94.4 |
2089 |
70 |
97 |
123 |
Sinker |
18.0% |
93.1 |
2079 |
116 |
210 |
96 |
Splitter |
7.5% |
85.6 |
1569 |
125 |
|
|
Slider |
34.3% |
84.1 |
2530 |
103 |
96 |
105 |
Full disclosure, this is where Jake usually writes up each of these pitchers with incisive, insightful comments about all of their performances to date, but Jake has been on vacation this weekend and I (Kate) haven’t watched any of these guys pitch all season because I’ve been busy writing about like, Jake Bauers and shit. So this week we’re just going to look at their FIPs together and say, hmm, this looks like tough sledding for the Mariners, Sale or no Sale. Honestly, I’d be more invested in looking this stuff up if I hadn’t just had to recap a start where the Mariners hitters failed to get anything going against Literally Humberto Castellanos, so yeah. Tough sledding, indeed.
The Big Picture:
The AL West
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
Astros |
83-59 |
0.585 |
-- |
W-L-W-L-W |
Athletics |
77-66 |
0.538 |
6.5 |
W-W-W-L-L |
Mariners |
77-66 |
0.538 |
6.5 |
L-W-W-L-L |
Angels |
70-73 |
0.490 |
13.5 |
W-L-L-W-L |
Rangers |
53-89 |
0.373 |
30.0 |
W-W-L-W-W |
The Wild Card Race
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
Blue Jays |
80-63 |
0.559 |
-- |
W-L-W-W-W |
Red Sox |
81-64 |
0.559 |
-- |
L-W-L-W-L |
Yankees |
79-64 |
0.552 |
1.0 |
L-L-L-W-L |
Athletics |
77-66 |
0.538 |
3.0 |
W-W-W-L-L |
Mariners |
77-66 |
0.538 |
3.0 |
L-W-W-L-L |
The Mariners failed to gain any ground in the Wild Card race thanks to a series loss to the NL’s worst team, and one of the worst road teams in baseball, historically, but weren’t totally buried in the WC standings, as all the other Wild Card teams either lost or split series over the weekend, except for the Blue Jays, who trounced the hapless Orioles and edged ahead of the Mariners, in addition to sucking up all the breathless national coverage. Mariners! Learn to hit home runs! We are begging you.