Seattle Mariners Previews

Series Preview: Red Sox (81-64) at Mariners (77-66)

After dropping a series to the worst team in the NL, the Mariners play host to one of the best teams in the AL

By Kate Preusser and Jake Mailhot Sep 13, 2021, 10:00am PDT

After dropping a series to the worst team in the AL (and the worst team in baseball, coming into the series), the Mariners face off against a decidedly more stout opponent in the Boston Red Sox, who lead the Mariners in the Wild Card race by three games. The Mariners could help themselves out in this series, or they could shovel ever more dirt on their razor-thin playoff hopes after dropping a series to the worst team in baseball at playing on the road this season, seriously, guys, what the hell.

At a Glance

Red Sox	Mariners
Red Sox	Mariners
Game 1	Monday, September 13 \| 7:10 pm
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez	RHP Logan Gilbert
50%	50%
Game 2	Tuesday, September 14 \| 7:10 pm
RHP Nathan Eovaldi	LHP Tyler Anderson
52%	48%
Game 3	Wednesday, September 15 \| 1:10 pm
RHP Tanner Houck	LHP Marco Gonzales
51%	49%

Weirdly, the odds-makers like the Mariners least in the game where I (Kate) like the Mariners best, but maybe that’s just because Tyler Anderson hasn’t authored any particularly crushing defeats for me lately, personally. The Mariners would have missed Chris Sale anyway, but definitely will now as he, like so many other Red Sox, is on the COVID-IL.

Team Overview

Overview	Red Sox	Mariners	Edge
Overview	Red Sox	Mariners	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	106 (5th in AL)	92 (12th in AL)	Red Sox
Fielding (OAA)	-35 (15th)	-2 (9th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	95 (4th)	111 (12th)	Red Sox
Bullpen (FIP-)	95 (5th)	86 (1st)	Mariners

Projected Lineup

Player	Position	Bats	PA	BABIP	wRC+	BsR
Player	Position	Bats	PA	BABIP	wRC+	BsR
Enrique Hernández	2B	R	506	0.284	112	2.8
Kyle Schwarber	LF	L	417	0.299	140	-2.5
Xander Bogaerts	SS	R	529	0.333	131	1.9
Rafael Devers	3B	L	588	0.303	132	0.1
J.D. Martinez	DH	R	567	0.339	128	-3.1
Alex Verdugo	CF	L	551	0.323	110	2.2
Hunter Renfroe	RF	R	503	0.285	117	-2.7
Bobby Dalbec	1B	R	408	0.326	105	-0.4
Christian Vázquez	C	R	453	0.308	80	-3.8

Kyle Schwarber has been the best deadline deal acquisition in baseball, adding 20 points to his already-high wRC+ (157!) since trading Cubbie Blue for BoSox Red. Boston also added Enrique Hernández on an off-season deal and he is thriving, which we love for Kiké, although less for the Red Sox. Other than that, it’s pretty much the regulars who have been part of Boston’s championship run contributing at their previous peak levels: J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers have all been the best versions of themselves lately, even if some of them got off to slower starts earlier in the season, and rookies/young’uns Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec have also contributed, the latter despite a 35% K rate in his first full-time big-league action.

Probable pitchers:

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters (Update: The Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters have been updated with August data)

LHP Eduardo Rodríguez

IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
136 1/3	27.2%	6.7%	14.2%	42.4%	5.15	3.55
Pitch	Frequency	Velocity	Spin Rate	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+
Four-seam	39.1%	92.6	2171	62	144	65
Sinker	11.2%	92.6	2124	108	85	103
Cutter	17.7%	88.4	2171	119	64	106
Changeup	23.6%	85.5	1885	98	86	113
Slider	8.3%	82.1	2130	69	71	98

RHP Nathan Eovaldi

IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
163 2/3	25.2%	4.4%	8.7%	41.2%	3.57	2.87
Pitch	Frequency	Velocity	Spin Rate	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+
Four-seam	42.6%	96.9	2116	155	84	110
Cutter	13.0%	92.6	2277	126	69	98
Splitter	12.4%	88.0	1546	103	95	86
Curveball	18.5%	78.6	2100	104	116	108
Slider	13.5%	86.0	2160	116	100	99

RHP Tanner Houck

IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
IP	K%	BB%	HR/FB%	GB%	ERA	FIP
53 1/3	28.0%	6.7%	8.7%	46.4%	3.54	2.96
Pitch	Frequency	Velocity	Spin Rate	Stuff+	Whiff+	BIP+
Four-seam	40.3%	94.4	2089	70	97	123
Sinker	18.0%	93.1	2079	116	210	96
Splitter	7.5%	85.6	1569	125
Slider	34.3%	84.1	2530	103	96	105

Full disclosure, this is where Jake usually writes up each of these pitchers with incisive, insightful comments about all of their performances to date, but Jake has been on vacation this weekend and I (Kate) haven’t watched any of these guys pitch all season because I’ve been busy writing about like, Jake Bauers and shit. So this week we’re just going to look at their FIPs together and say, hmm, this looks like tough sledding for the Mariners, Sale or no Sale. Honestly, I’d be more invested in looking this stuff up if I hadn’t just had to recap a start where the Mariners hitters failed to get anything going against Literally Humberto Castellanos, so yeah. Tough sledding, indeed.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	83-59	0.585	--	W-L-W-L-W
Athletics	77-66	0.538	6.5	W-W-W-L-L
Mariners	77-66	0.538	6.5	L-W-W-L-L
Angels	70-73	0.490	13.5	W-L-L-W-L
Rangers	53-89	0.373	30.0	W-W-L-W-W

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Blue Jays	80-63	0.559	--	W-L-W-W-W
Red Sox	81-64	0.559	--	L-W-L-W-L
Yankees	79-64	0.552	1.0	L-L-L-W-L
Athletics	77-66	0.538	3.0	W-W-W-L-L
Mariners	77-66	0.538	3.0	L-W-W-L-L

The Mariners failed to gain any ground in the Wild Card race thanks to a series loss to the NL’s worst team, and one of the worst road teams in baseball, historically, but weren’t totally buried in the WC standings, as all the other Wild Card teams either lost or split series over the weekend, except for the Blue Jays, who trounced the hapless Orioles and edged ahead of the Mariners, in addition to sucking up all the breathless national coverage. Mariners! Learn to hit home runs! We are begging you.