Series Preview: Mariners (48-43) at Angels (45-44)

If you read the previous series preview, you’ll be well acquainted with the opponent for the opening series of the second half. There were a few key changes over the All-Star break, however. The Mariners announced that they’ll be calling up Jarred Kelenic and he should slot in as the everyday center fielder for the rest of the season. Héctor Santiago’s suspension for using a banned substance was upheld and the Mariners will be down a man on their 26-man roster for the next 10 games. That will force the Mariners to stretch their pitching staff pretty thin at a critical point in the season.

With a series win over the Angels in Seattle right before the All-Star break, the Mariners now have an opportunity to further bury the Angels in the Wild Card standings with another series in Anaheim. None of the Angels stars are nearing a return from the Injured List but they did sign Adam Eaton after he was released by the White Sox last week. With the benefit of the four-day layoff, the Angels have reshuffled their rotation which means the Mariners will see two of the same starters that they saw last weekend.

David Fletcher destroyed Mariners pitching in their previous matchup last weekend and nearly single-handedly won the game for them on Sunday. He collected eight hits in three games, including his first two home runs of the season. With those two dingers, exactly half of his 12 career home runs have come against the Mariners. One of the keys to winning the previous series was keeping Shohei Ohtani’s bat in check. He was limited to just three hits, though two of them went for extra bases. With Eaton in the fold now, Phil Gosselin will probably be relegated to the short side of an outfield platoon. They probably need to get Juan Lagares’s bat out of the lineup but they don’t really have another viable center fielder on the roster.

Probable Pitchers

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• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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From a previous series preview:

Over the last three years, Andrew Heaney has posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio just under four. That’s one of the best marks of any qualified starter in that time. But he’s struggled to establish himself as one of the premiere pitchers in the majors because of a big home run problem. Back in 2019, when the dragless ball was wreaking havoc on fly ball pitchers, he allowed nearly two home runs per nine innings. He got that problem under control last year but his ERA still far outpaced his peripherals.

After 15 starts in the first half, Heaney’s home run issues are just as pronounced as ever, leading to a ERA more than a run higher than his FIP. In his previous outing against the Mariners, he allowed four runs on six hits, including three home runs, in 3.1 innings.

From a previous series preview:

The Angels acquired Alex Cobb from the Orioles this offseason as part of their efforts to revamp their pitching staff. Among all their new acquisitions, Cobb has worked out the best. He really struggled to replicate his early career success in Baltimore and much of that is likely due to his fickle splitter. His feel for that pitch comes and goes but he’s definitely found some consistency with it this year. He’s throwing it more than ever and batters can’t help but chase it. His chase rate is the third highest in the majors behind Jacob deGrom and Julio Urias. The success of that pitch alone explains his career high strikeout rate.

Last Friday, Cobb held the Mariners to just two unearned runs in 5.1 innings. He struck out five and allowed seven base runners.

From a previous series preview:

Patrick Sandoval has pitched so well in the starting rotation, the Angels have relegated José Quintana — the pitcher he replaced — to the bullpen. Even though ended up wearing the loss in his previous outing against the Mariners, that game was a sort of coming out party for Sandoval. He collected a whopping 32 whiffs in that game, 17 of them off his changeup. That pitch is an elite whiff generating weapon, with the four highest swinging strike rate of any individual pitch thrown more than 50 times this season. That gives him a solid foundation for his strikeout rate. As the season has gone on, he’s recognized the quality of that pitch and is now throwing it around 40% of the time. He’s continued to rack up strikeouts since then, though his command is still a work in progress.

Sandoval allowed just two runs in his start last Saturday but still took the loss as Chris Flexen outdueled him across seven innings. He struck out six and allowed eight base runners.

The Big Picture:

The Astros barely avoided a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees last weekend but a six-run ninth inning on Sunday produced a walk-off win. They’ll start off the second half of the season with a three-game series against the White Sox in a matchup of the two best teams in the American League. The A’s won their first series since mid-June, winning two of three in Texas before the break. They’ll host a Cleveland team that scratched their way back into the Wild Card conversation with a sweep of the Royals last weekend.

The Yankees and Red Sox had the first game of their four-game series postponed yesterday due to positive COVID tests on New York’s roster. Those two teams were set to play each other eight times in the next two weeks, though the health and safety protocols might push some of those games further back in the schedule. The Rays have played some extremely streaky baseball recently. Since June 15, they’ve suffered through alternating streaks of seven losses, four wins, five losses, and six wins. They’ll start the second half in Atlanta with a three-game interleague series. The Blue Jays will host the Rangers this weekend in Buffalo. They’re trying to work towards getting approval to host games in Toronto by the end of the month, but the surge in Delta variant cases might scuttle that hope very quickly.