Series Preview: Mariners (41-38) at Blue Jays (40-36)

The Mariners continue to play extremely well against some of the toughest teams in the American League. With their latest series win over the White Sox, Seattle has now gone 22-22 against teams with records over .500 — and 19-15 against American League opponents with winning records. It’s encouraging to see this team put up strong performances against the best the league has to offer.

It’s wild to even think about this, but this series against the Blue Jays has some interesting Wild Card implications. Both teams are neck and neck in the standings behind Cleveland and the A’s for the second Wild Card spot. The Yankees are also lurking just behind Seattle and a series with New York is on the docket next week. In fact, after this series in Toronto Buffalo, the Mariners head into the All-Star break with a nine-game homestand against the Rangers, Yankees, and Angels. They’ve played extremely well at home this year so if everything goes right, they could be in a really interesting position in the standings at the halfway mark.

The Blue Jays were one of the most aggressive teams this offseason. They’ve recently graduated a bunch of their top prospects — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio the headlining trio — and saw an opportunity to supplement their homegrown core with some key free agents. They signed George Springer to a massive six-year contract and Marcus Semien to a one-year deal, and added a number of other supplementary pieces to their pitching staff. They currently have the fourth best run differential in the American League, and their offense has been one of the best in baseball. They’ve underperformed a bit due to a thin pitching staff that’s struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness.

Guerrero Jr. is doing everything he can to wrestle the MVP award away from Shohei Ohtani. He currently leads the majors in fWAR, wRC+, and RBIs, and is tied with Ohtani for the home run lead. He has a real shot at capturing the first Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera did it back in 2012. He’s the centerpiece of the Blue Jays lineup but they have potent bats from one to nine too. Marcus Semien has been the best second baseman in baseball after a rather disappointing last season in Oakland. Moving over to the keystone has helped him provide tons of value defensively and his bat looks just as potent as it was during his 2019 breakout. George Springer was sidelined for almost three months with a quad injury that he suffered during spring training. He played four games at the end of April but aggravated the injury and just recently returned from his second stint on the Injured List.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

For years, Robbie Ray put up elite strikeout rates in Arizona but was often undone by issues with his control and too much loud contact allowed. His two breaking balls are good enough to earn plenty of whiffs when located out of the zone, but trying to nibble with his fastball with his poor control was a recipe for disaster. All those problems came to a head last year as his walk rate exploded up to 17.9% leading to an ERA and FIP both above 6.50. This year, he’s completely reinvented himself. His walk rate has fallen to 6.3% after deciding to simply pound the strike zone with all of his pitches. He’s still allowing tons of loud contact as batters have continued to launch his fastball over the fence at an alarming rate. But since he’s allowing far fewer baserunners, those home runs aren’t doing as much damage as they had been before.

After never really living up to his potential as a member of the Mets, Steven Matz has put together a solid season for the Blue Jays. Acquired via trade during the offseason, Matz has harnessed all that raw stuff that made him such an interesting prospect in New York and is finally seeing positive results with it. His sinker-heavy approach has helped him keep the ball on the ground and a trio of above average secondary offerings give him plenty of options later in the count. He’s been sidelined on the COVID Injured List for the past two weeks and will be making his first start off the IL against Seattle.

The Blue Jays signed Hyun Jin Ryu to a huge contract last year to front their rotation during their transition from rebuilding to contending. It was a lot of money to guarantee a pitcher who turned 33 right before the first season of the four-year pact. He rewarded their faith in him by putting together a fantastic campaign in 2020. This year, those results have slipped a bit. His strikeout rate has fallen to the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2013 and he’s struggled to suppress hard contact against him. His fastball velocity has dropped a bit and his changeup has been surprisingly ineffective this year. It all adds up to a profile that’s merely good instead of the great results Ryu had been putting up over the last three seasons.

The Big Picture:

Seattle’s marvelous run of play lately has put them in interesting company, but they’re still well back from the division’s main competitors. The Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics continue to spar for preeminence, and despite dropping the first game of their series with Baltimore, Houston has a good shot to add some wins this week. The A’s are in good shape as well, hosting the large metal shed cellar-dwelling Rangers. Anaheim, meanwhile, is locked in a Bronx-based battle of underachievers, having won game one of a three-game set against the spiraling Yankees.

The Wild Card race is beginning to take shape, with most teams at or just games shy of the season’s midway point. The AL East seems unsurprisingly likely to feature at least one of the two best non-division winners, though it’s a surprise to see Seattle closer to a playoff berth than the Yankees. Together with Toronto, the M’s and Yanks have a ways to go to snag a spot from the A’s and Rays. Tampa Bay reversed their fortune following their surprise sweep in Seattle, and is pushing the division leading Red Sox, while Cleveland also continues to hang around despite a dismal offense and a rotation now missing its top three starters.