Series Preview: Mariners (18-19) vs. Cleveland (20-14)

It’s probably a bit of hyperbole to say that this series is the biggest for the organization in years. It doesn’t have any playoff implications like that final series of the season against Oakland back in 2016, but with both Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert set to make their major league debuts on Thursday night, this series has huge implications for the near future of the club. It’s finally time to start talking about the substance of this rebuild rather than the hypothetical prospecting we’ve been used to for the past few years.

Less than a week ago the Cleveland baseball team was no-hit by Wade Miley. Yes, that Wade Miley. Personally, that feels like enough information to paint an accurate picture of this club, but you still look hungry, so here’s a little more. Their 20-14 record is an aberration - playing in the AL Central will fast-track you to 20 wins in the blink of a Tiger’s eye. Their futility in the face of Wade’s wiles was also the second time they’ve been no-hit this year, and they’re now the third team in MLB history to be no-hit twice within their first 31 games of the season. They have a veritable ace in Shane Bieber (whom the M’s will see in the final game of this four-game series), a dominant bullpen helmed by Emmanuel Clase, Bryan Shaw and James Karinchak, and an offense being hoisted once more upon José Ramírez’s chariot.

You thought Dipoto was an active GM? Currently, no position players on Cleveland’s active roster were drafted by the team and only two on the roster have been with the team their entire careers - Ramírez and Yu Chang, both of whom were international free agent signees.

Their lineup is an exercise in extremes, in much the same way the team’s performance has been. They’ve got a number of familiar-sounding, would-be, could-be former prospects (hello, you lugubrious Rumble Pony, Andrés Giménez), the aforementioned Ramírez, and a conspicuous absence of Smile power. The emergence of Franmil Reyes has soothed the pain of the latter, with the enormous designated hitter tallying a 142 wRC+.

Probable Pitchers

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Zach Plesac broke out in a big way during his sophomore season last year. He’s a prime example of the type of pitcher Cleveland’s pitching development program has been able to churn out over the last decade. His breakout was fueled by an increase in usage and effectiveness of his secondary offerings. Cleveland has targeted pitchers with projectable secondary offerings with good command who might be overlooked because they lack an overpowering fastball. They teach them how to use their whole repertoire effectively and reap the rewards. For Plesac, that meant leaning on his slider and changeup to generate whiffs and using the pinpoint command of his fastball to keep his walk rate miniscule.

Aaron Civale was another beneficiary of Cleveland’s development program. He had a fantastic debut back in 2019 but was roughed up in his follow up campaign in 2020. This year, he looks completely different on the mound. He’s adopted a new, shorter arm path — the same mechanical change that led to Lucas Giolito’s breakout — and has revamped his pitch mix. He’s throwing a riding four-seam fastball now instead of his sinker and has changed the grip on his changeup to a split-change grip. The splitter hasn’t really worked out — it’s getting tons of ground ball contact but batters aren’t swinging and missing against it. But the swapped fastball has really helped him limit hard contact, even though batters are elevating it more often than his sinker. The result is an excellent ERA that far outpaces a FIP that hasn’t really budged.

With such a slight frame, there were plenty of questions about whether or not Triston McKenzie could handle a heavy workload as a starter. Cleveland has stuck with their plan and he made his major league debut last year as a starter. It was his first competitive action since 2018 after injuries held him out of the entire 2019 minor league season. His fastball was pretty impressive, with tons of ride for a heater without elite velocity. He’s leaning on that pitch even more this season, but the rest of his repertoire has let him down a bit. He hasn’t been able to control any of his pitches and batters are elevating nearly everything they put in play off him. The raw talent and building blocks are there, but he might need some additional development time in Triple-A sooner rather than later.

It’s too bad 2020 was a shortened season because it would have been fascinating to see if Shane Bieber could maintain his complete dominance over a full 30-start schedule. He was by far the best pitcher in baseball last year and unanimously won the AL Cy Young award. It would be nearly impossible to replicate that dominance, but he’s been nearly as good this year. He set a major league record for strikeouts recorded in the first month of a season and has struck out at least eight batters in a record 20 straight games. And the crazy thing is, he’s still trying to find the feel for his slider this year. The pitch’s physical characteristics have looked a bit off from it’s sheer dominance last year, but he’s still running a 50% whiff rate with it.

The Big Picture:

The Angels couldn’t maintain their momentum against the Astros, losing the final two games of their series in Houston. They have a day off today and travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox this weekend. After their series win against the Angels, the Astros welcome the Rangers to Houston for a four-game, intrastate showdown. The A’s have won two straight against the Red Sox and play the final game of that series this afternoon. They travel to Minnesota afterwards for a three-game set against the Twins.