The PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projections have been out for a week now over at Baseball Prospectus, but today they calibrated their full season playoff odds and standings. PECOTA’s 50th percentile outcome, it appears, sets the Seattle Mariners at 69.6 wins and 92.4 losses. That puts Seattle narrowly ahead of the Texas Rangers for 4th place in the AL West.
PECOTA’s modeling system runs a myriad of season simulations to project outcomes, generating a range of likeliest outcomes on a curve. In 0.0% of those simulations did Seattle take home the AL West title. The projections offer individual player expectations blended with playing time expectations from the BP staff. Like ZiPS and Steamer, PECOTA is dubious of some of Seattle’s 2020 breakout performers, as Kyle Lewis, Dylan Moore, and Justus Sheffield are all likeliest to be below-average MLB players in PECOTA’s estimations. The 93-win Astros lead the AL West in projections, followed by the Angels just shy of 87 and the Athletics a distant 3rd at a sub-.500 79.6 wins estimated. The Yankees are seen as the class of the AL with a 97.4 win projection that gives them over a 10 win buffer from the rest of the AL East. Only the Dodgers are estimated higher, at 102.9, stymying the Padres with a 95.6 win projection that is third-best in MLB.