Series Preview: Mariners (89-70) vs. Angels (75-84)

Here we go. The Mariners have three games left to play and they control their destiny. Everything has seemingly conspired to open a window to earn their first playoff appearance since 2001. And compared to 2014 or ‘16, this window is thrown wide open. In those previous seasons, the Mariners were hoping beyond hope that they’d be able to win their final series of the season and get some help from other teams around the league. This year, they’re entering the final weekend of the regular season tied for the second Wild Card spot. FanGraphs gives them a 29.6% chance of making it to the postseason; FiveThirtyEight has their odds as high as 42%. Win, and they’re in the playoffs; lose, and things get pretty complicated.

Before we get into their opponent this weekend, let’s breakdown the various scenarios to get the Mariners to the playoffs:

• If the Mariners go 3-0, they’ll be guaranteed a tiebreaking Game 163 at the very least. That would require the Red Sox to win all three games in Washington against the Nationals. If the Yankees lose twice to the Rays over the weekend, the Mariners could also end up tied for a Wild Card spot with New York. And depending on what the Red Sox do, there could be three teams tied for two spots. In this scenario, the Blue Jays would be hoping that either the Red Sox or Yankees falter because they wouldn’t be able to catch the Mariners.
• If the Mariners go 2-1, they’d need the Red Sox to lose at least once in Washington to force a tiebreaker. If the Yankees are swept by the Rays, they would fall into a tiebreaker situation with New York. This scenario also gives the Blue Jays an opportunity to force their way into a three- or four-team tiebreaking situation.
• If the Mariners go 1-2 or 0-3, they will have to rely on the Nationals and Orioles to play spoiler against the Red Sox and Blue Jays. Losing two or three games to the Angels would be disastrous and require a bunch of miracles to get the Mariners to the playoffs.

For all the details and permutations of the various tiebreaking situations, read Jay Jaffe’s latest entry in the Team Entropy series — it also includes a fascinating examination of the Mariners playoff odds and run differential. Obviously, the easiest path for the Mariners is to just sweep the Angels, but even if they lose once, there are still multiple paths to a tiebreaker game that would be open to them. Should a tiebreaker game be necessary, the Mariners are at a significant disadvantage since they lost their season series against both the Yankees and Red Sox. They hold the advantage against the Blue Jays, but a tiebreaker against them isn’t as likely.

What a difference sequencing makes. To stare down the comparison between Anaheim and the Seattle Mariners, you’d be hard pressed to envision why this series matters to either club. The Angels have been below average across the board in the AL, but their results have hung on the health and quality of their stars and top prospects. Without Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Justin Upton, Dexter Fowler, Jo Adell, Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Taylor Ward, Andrew Heaney, and plenty of other depth pieces by injury, trade, or DFA, this roster is far from the playoff contender they threatened ahead of the season, and lags behind even their season numbers in many ways. One saving grace has been Raisel Iglesias, a genuine dominant closer who should make a mint this winter, and a few decent bullpen arms in Steve Cishek, Mike Mayers, and perhaps recent arrival Austin Warren help fill out the pen with competence. Seattle has managed to keep the game out of Iglesias’ clutches in 13 of their 16 matchups with the Angels thus far, and keeping him languishing in the ‘pen for their final three would be exceptional praxis.

I don’t know what to tell you. This was in contention with the Astros for the scariest lineup in the division in April. The aforementioned ~five above-average hitters are done for the year. David Fletcher has completely pumpkined. Luis Rengifo is being asked to cover shortstop duties along with Jack Mayfield, something neither are well qualified for. Jared Walsh remains an excellent developmental success, and Max Stassi is always dangerous, but this lineup’s primary threat is of course the presumptive MVP, Shohei Ohtani. This is not hubris, it is matter-of-fact acknowledgement: the Angels lineup is wretched in a way Seattle’s lineup was for much of the first half of the season (now it’s perfect, don’t check FanGraphs just trust me). Any collection of big league hitters is unequivocally a dangerous one — this same group blitzed Tyler Anderson and co. for 14 runs less than a week ago! But even in the time since Seattle has last seen them, the accursed nature of Anaheim’s nature has caught two more of their number: reliable bulk arm RHP Jaime Barría and solid swinging C/3B/OF Taylor Ward will miss the series due to injury. Evade Ohtani, overcome the rest, ignore the lamentations of those wishing for one last tape-measure blast to pass ‘Ol Tungsten Arm unless they’ve built a hefty seawall that requires no Sewald.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

From a previous series preview:

A former top prospect in the Angels system, José Suarez had a rough time adjusting to the majors across three seasons. Just 23 years old, he’s got plenty of time to continue to develop and it looks like the Angels have finally given him an opportunity to prove himself in the rotation for now. He has a decent fastball that he throws around half the time with his best secondary offering an above-average changeup. He also spins a good curveball that’s used more for generating weak contact on the ground rather than whiffs.

The Mariners were able to handle Suarez capably during their last series against the Angels. He allowed four runs in five innings, striking out just a single batter.

In his second major league appearance, Jhonathan Diaz held the Mariners to just a single run in a seven inning relief appearance after Jaime Barria left with an injury. Originally signed as a 16-year-old international free agent by the Red Sox, he left their organization as a free agent after last season. He signed a minor league deal with the Angels and was assigned to Double-A to start the year. He acquitted himself well, posting the highest strikeout rate of his minor league career at that level. He was promoted to Triple-A for three starts and made his major league debut on September 17. He has an above average slurvy slider and mixes in an average sinker and changeup to round out his repertoire.

The Angels haven’t announced a starter for Sunday’s game but they’ve made it clear that Shohei Ohtani won’t be making another appearance on the mound this season. There are a bunch of options down in Triple-A who could make a final spot start for Los Angeles; Reid Detmers is the most likely candidate but Janson Junk, Packy Naughton, or even Chris Rodriguez could also be called up. Detmers was the Angels first round pick in the 2020 draft and he quickly made his way to the majors just a year after being drafted. He put up some gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors but struggled upon his first taste of the majors. He has a pair of good breaking balls but his fastball has been absolutely crushed by major league batters.

The Big Picture:

I laid out the various playoff scenarios above, but just to reiterate, the Mariners are rooting for the Nationals against the Red Sox, the Orioles against the Blue Jays, and the Rays against the Yankees.