On Tuesday night, MLB Pipeline updated their Top 100 prospect rankings. This midseason ranking update focuses on the addition of draft picks. Mariners draftee, 6th overall pick Emerson Hancock, debuts at no. 39 on the list. He’s the fourth-highest ranked draft pick from the 2020 draft.
MLB Pipeline has updated Top 100 to include 2020 Draft.— Joe (@JoeDoyleMiLB) August 5, 2020
7) Spencer Torkelson
20) Austin Martin
34) Asa Lacy
39) Emerson Hancock
41) Nick Gonzales
42) Max Meyer
60) Zac Veen
68) Heston Kjerstad
69) Garrett Mitchell
88) Robert Hassell
92) Austin Hendrick
100) Mick Abel
2020 is a very different year in prospect ranking circles. Generally by now, several prospects would have graduated from the list, but given the lack of baseball, many of baseball’s top prospects remain.
To this point, only the Pirates’ Mitch Keller (preseason no. 39) has graduated from the preseason Top 100.
The Mariners in general are well-represented once again, featuring five players in the Top 100, four of which are Top 50 guys. The Tigers and Rays are the only other teams who can claim four players in the Top 50.
Here's the Mariners on the new MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect list:— Greg Johns (@GregJohnsMLB) August 5, 2020
12. Jarred Kelenic
19. Julio Rodriguez
39. Emerson Hancock
44. Logan Gilbert
62. Evan Whitehttps://t.co/TW09WkKNbS
MLB Pipeline likes to rank farm systems with a proprietary tally system called Prospect Points where organizations get 100 points having the No. 1 prospect, 99 for No. 2 and so on all the way through no. 100 where a team would get just one point. In that respect, Seattle now has the third best farm system in baseball with 329 “points”. The Tigers firmly pace the pack at 380, while the Padres are just in front of the Mariners at 339.
Now, with additions come subtractions. Unfortunately, due to the influx of talent and lack of graduations, Mariners 2019 first rounder George Kirby was bumped out of the Top 100, though my understanding is he’s not far off the list, sitting at 113. It should also be noted, Mariners shortstop prospect Noelvi Marte is presumably sitting in the ~120 range after just missing the preseason Top 100.
From my calculations, it should be expected 13-15 guys will graduate before the end of the season. To graduate, a position player must tally 128 at-bats. For pitchers, it’s 50 innings. My presumptive graduates:
Gavin Lux, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Nick Madrigal, Carter Kieboom, Brendan Rodgers, Sean Murphy, Nico Hoerner, Andres Gimenez, Nate Pearson, Jesus Luzardo, Brendan McKay, and Brady Singer should all fall off the list. I also think there’s a decent chance we could see Casey Mize and Dylan Carlson graduate.
Unfortunately, Evan White is likely in that crop too.
So how does that forecast the future? Well, by the end of September, Jarred Kelenic (no. 12) will likely move into the no. 7 spot. Julio Rodriguez (no. 19) will likely jump inside the top 12. Kirby would re-appear at the back-end of the list whilst Marte would once again fall just short.
It wasn’t just the Top 100 list that was updated either. Team Top 30 lists were also updated. Second round pick Zach DeLoach debuts in the Mariners system at no. 15 while Comp. Rd. B selection Connor Phillips debuts at 16.
It should be noted, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis did not update any existing prospect rankings in this new iteration. Because minor league baseball was cancelled and the sample size for some prospects currently in The Show is so small, they’re choosing to hold any judgements until the end of the season.