Naval WARfare: Mariners (62-88) at Pirates (65-85)

September always looked like it’d be the most interesting month of the year for the 2019 Mariners, but even the cheeriest prognostication would’ve been laughed out of the building for the past week and a half. Now, after a 4-2 homestand, the Mariners head to Pittsburgh to face a team that looks nearly as different as they do since they last faced off.

In some ways, the Pirates are Seattle’s closest NL facsimile. Both clubs entered 2019 outgunned and at the end of a competitive five year stretch. The Pirates seemed to pretend their roster contained a divisional contender but thanks to unsuccessful big swings in trades and miserly ownership, the Bucs are cellar-bound with little looking up. Their rotation did have promise at the season’s outset, but injuries and inconsistency have scuppered the Good, er, Bad Ship Pirate. Joe Musgrove has been good, but it’s impossible not to look at him in contrast with Gerrit Cole. Trevor Williams, Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Jordan Lyles, and Mitch Keller have all shown promise between trips to the injured list, but not nearly enough to overcome disastrous outings and terrible defense.

Moreover, the team has been beset by internal issues. The team has been involved in multiple rhubarbs, instigating a beanball feud with the Reds in particular from the season’s first weeks. Numerous players have received internal or league-mandated suspensions for fighting and/or other misconduct, shading an already-disappointing season in an even grislier light.

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Even with a couple minor breakouts from BABIP god Bryan Reynolds and exit velo monster Josh Bell, the Pirates offense has been a travesty. The lack of star power, combined with terrible defense and a total lack of depth, has been crushing. Bell is suffering a groin injury, so he may not even play this week, limiting them further. Reynolds is running a .400 BABIP that approaches the highest in MLB history, which means in a sense the Pirates are lucky they have even the showing they’ve gotten.

Probable Pitchers

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Keller, the Pirate’s #1 prospect, made his MLB debut in late May for a spot start before being optioned back to Triple-A Indianapolis. He was recalled for a week in mid-June before being summoned to the bigs for good August 12, just in time to wear the godawful Player’s Weekend uniforms. Keller’s rookie year has been soft-pedaled by a dreadful Pirates team and an ERA of over eight that doesn’t reflect his solid 3.61 FIP. He’s striking out almost 30% of batters with his arsenal of a fastball that touches 98, a curve with some good bite to it, a slider that’s still a work in progress, and he’ll also throw a changeup occasionally, although that took a backseat as he worked on developing his slider.

With the Mariners using a record number of players in 2019, far be it for us to play the WHO? card. With that being said: Dario Agrazal? Agrazal, who is not a cartoon villain’s cat, has been in the Pirates organization since 2013 and is finally getting his chance at the bigs thanks to injuries to Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon. Agrazal has never been a strikeout pitcher, instead pitching to contact and inducing lots of grounders with his heavy sinker, but that ability hasn’t shown up at the big-league level, where he’s lost 10% on his grounder rate. That leaves...not a lot to work with, although Agrazal does do a good job limiting walks and therefore damage. Think Iván Nova Lite (very lite).

Despite the name of a RHP, Steven Brault deceptively pitches from the left side. After spending most of the past three years in a bullpen/spot starter role, Brault has been forced into the rotation full-time thanks to the decimated bullpen state. It’s gone badly, as usual. With the Pirates comes the complementary bad/superfluous sinker, as well as a neat lower-spin changeup and higher-spin slider that can pair well at times. Unfortunately, Brault’s command hasn’t been enough to overcome his bat-hunting repertoire, and the getaway game of the series could be a strange matchup between Brault and the young Justin Dunn.

In case you missed it, the Mariners were the first AL West team eliminated from post-season contention, way back on September 4. The Angels were bounced September 11, and Texas on September 13. The next to go will likely be last year’s champs, as the Wild Card looks to be a three-team race between Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland, only two of whom will receive Rob Manfred’s rose.

The Rockies pulling out of their tailspin with a series win against the Cardinals and a sweep of the Padres, and the Mariners taking the series against the White Sox means there’s a bunch of teams clustered around a .430 winning percentage: the Rockies, White Sox, and Pirates, who could leapfrog over (under?) those other two teams with a strong showing against Seattle. Toronto, fresh off a surprising series win against the Yankees, gets an opportunity to play the Orioles and possibly add another team to this cluster. They’re almost to a whole .400 winning percentage! Meanwhile, the Tigers flirt with ending the season with a winning percentage that begins with 2, coming perilously close to the 2003 Tigers, who ended the season at 23-119.

Also worth noting, the Pirates’ star closer Felipe Vasquez was arrested within the past 24 hours on a number of charges, including solicitation of a child. Below is a link to the writeup from our partner Pirates site, Bucs Dugout. Should you choose to comment here or there, please treat the topic with the seriousness it obviously merits.