Two Tex Too Furious - Mariners (46-63) vs. Rangers (53-53) Series Preview

The Mariners are through one of their three off days this week as the schedulers attempt to recompense them for their Japan trip and stacked early season rainout free schedule. While the players likely appreciate a day off, this was likely spent on the road in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It’s fortuitous that they’re there, near the Mariners AA affiliate as a few of the players making the trip down might not be there by game time in a few hours - Mike Leake, Domingo Santana, and Roenis Elías are the best bets to move for Seattle. Mike Minor and Lance Lynn have been Texas’s aces this season, but one or both could well be gone by tomorrow’s deadline.

It all makes for a strange vibe as these AL West rivals square off. Texas is stuck in the middle at the moment, with a surprisingly competent roster that could crater once its aces move, but not nearly enough juice to squirm into the loaded upper echelon of the AL. Seattle frolicked through the Tigers’ field this weekend, but that merely highlighted how abysmal the cellar-dwellers truly are.

The Rangers, in a way, are a beefed up version of Detroit. Texas has a solid, if shallow, starting rotation, but little else. Injuries and ineffectiveness have made the present and future tough to augur for the Lone Star Ballers, but Texas thus far has an 8-5 lead on the season series. After this, Seattle has just one more set of games against the Rangers, but all six remaining matchups will take place in Texas. That means baseballs carrying deep into the night sky and all sorts of potential for pitiful defense.

Oof. There are plenty of guys who can do damage in this lineup, but few doing so consistently. Joey Gallo hit the IL for 4-6 weeks the other day with a broken hamate bone that is famous for lingering. That means a lot of holes for Texas despite the stalwart Shin-Soo Choo and surprising Danny Santana. At long last, prospect Willie Calhoun is getting the chance for daily play again with Gallo sidelined, but he remains a defensive liability. Jeff Mathis has been, by several measurement metrics, the worst full-time player in baseball this year, and no that single-digit wRC+ is not a typo. Rougned Odor has also returned to his powerful pumpkin ways of 2017, with a 25-dinger pace and absolutely nothing else. When this team makes contact, it does damage, which makes them a tricky matchup for Seattle. What happens when a 26.1% team K-rate (29th in MLB) faces a pitching staff that only whiffs 19.8% of their opponents (29th in MLB as well)? Thus far, things have gone worse for the sailors than the cavalry.

Probable Pitchers

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Stuff+ Explainer:

From a previous Series Preview:

A few years ago, Ariel Jurado was rising through the Rangers organization as a promising pitching prospect, peaking at #3 on FanGraph’s organizational prospect rankings in 2017. His scouting report indicated great control of a sinking fastball and two okay secondary offerings. The profile was a low-ceiling, back-end starter in the mold of Martín Pérez. Unfortunately, TINSTAAPP struck in full force last year. Jurado struggled mightily in his second stint in Double-A as his fastball suddenly became much more hittable. He repeated Double-A for the third time this year and things didn’t get much better. With nothing to play for, the Rangers called him up in August to see if exposing him to major league coaching could solve his issues. So far, he’s been just as hittable and his trademark control hasn’t exactly translated to the majors either.

Ariel Jurado has not become the groundball machine he was in the minors, but he’s managed to miss a few more bats and keep the walks controlled. It’s not made for anything incredible, but as the 5th starter/longman he’s held his own, and the 23-year-old might help fill out the Rangers rotation for the next few years.

From previous series previews:

Mike Minor’s transition back to the rotation last year was big success for the Rangers. He was healthy and his results got better as the year went on. It was pretty clear that the transition was a yearlong process for him. His fastball velocity increased nearly every month helping him add five points to his strikeout rate and shave almost half a run off his FIP in the second half of the season. His four-seam fastball contributes to an extreme fly ball profile, helping him suppress his BABIP, though that comes at the cost of a bunch of home runs. With a relatively low walk rate and few base hits, those home runs haven’t hurt him as much as they could have. Minor has increased the spin rate on his fastball by over 100 RPMs this year—it’s now the highest spin fastball thrown by a starter in the majors—but his vertical movement hasn’t changed at all. That tells me that the spin he’s added is pretty inefficient. That’s reflected in his results too. His whiff rate has basically stayed the same though he is inducing a few more popups.

If this is Mike Minor’s last hurrah with the Rangers, it won’t be too soon. He’s held the Mariners to 7 earned runs in 19.0 innings this year, most of which came at the hands of Daniel Vogelbach in Seattle during their most recent face-off. Seattle’s .648 OPS against Minor helped boost him to his first All-Star game this year, and may toss him into the thick of a playoff race in the next 24 hours.

The Big Picture

For all their efforts, the A’s remain well entrenched behind the Astros, while the Angels somehow losing four of their last five to Baltimore and Detroit has squandered most of their hopes for a Wild Card dalliance. A resurgent Cleveland and a rash of rotation injuries/ineffectiveness has also opened up the AL Central and East to some intrigue, so the American League may yet have playoff races.

Impressively, a four-game sweep and five game winning streak had zero impact on the Mariners’ draft position. Thanks to some hot play by Miami, the Marlins only dropped one game closer to 1st overall, though the Pirates’ five-game skid and the White Sox booting four of five makes Seattle’s current spot at sixth overall a bit less secure.