Series Preview: Mariners (37-48) at Astros (50-32)

The 2019 Astros were by and large supposed to run away with the division, but a plague of injuries and deeply suspect pitching have conspired to make this season a rockier road. This series marks an opportunity for Houston to right the ship, and perhaps for their offense to recall how to actually hit with runners in scoring position. The Mariners have actually been playing decent baseball recently. They’ve won six of their last 10 and won four of their last six series.

As we all expected, the Astros are currently leading the AL West 50-32 coming into this series, but it hasn’t been all sunshine and bluebonnets. They’ve gone 2-8 in their 10 games, including 14-2 and 10-0 drubbings in the last two games against the Pirates. Yes, those Pirates. The Rangers (yeah, I don’t know either) are just five games back of them in the division standings right now, and the not-so-Lastros should be starting to feel the heat.

The ‘Stros currently have the second-most GDPs in all of baseball (the Mariners have the fewest!), which makes it likely that JP Crawford will have ample opportunities to show off his highlight-reel-worthy glove once again.

As previously mentioned, injuries have disrupted Houston’s 2019 path of dominance, but by and large this is now a lineup at nearly its full strength. George Springer has been typically destructive since his return from the IL, and José Altuve, who uncharacteristically struggled after his own return, seems to be back to his frustrating ways. The other thing that’s helped the Astros stay afloat is their seemingly endless well of minor league talent waiting in the wing, specifically Yordan Álvarez, who has been crushing the ball since his call up in early June. Álvarez has already launched seven home runs in 15 games, but he injured his knee this week and might miss this series.

Probable Pitchers

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From the previous series preview:

One of the biggest reasons why the Astros didn’t try to re-sign Dallas Keuchel is because they were able to sign a replica for a pittance. Wade Miley completely reinvented himself with the Brewers last year, fully embracing some newfound contact management skills. He scrapped his slider in favor of a harder cutter and started throwing that pitch almost half the time at the expense of his mediocre fastball. With three pitches that induce contact on the ground more than half the time the batter puts the ball in play, he easily generated a career-high ground ball rate. Even more impressively, he allowed just three home runs all season long, holding opposing batters to just a .330 slugging percentage. The cutter itself isn’t all that notable from a stuff perspective. But he uses it like Marco Gonzales uses his cutter, busting it inside to right-handed batters to generate weak contact. That new pitch also helped his fastball play up since he didn’t have to rely on it as much. The Astros have had Miley lean even more into these changes he made last year and he might now be an even better contact manager than Keuchel himself.

From the previous series preview:

Joining the Astros has helped Justin Verlander discover the fountain of youth. At 35 years old, he arguably posted his best season ever last year, setting career-bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, and FIP. He also allowed the highest fly ball rate of his career as his high-spin, “rising” fastball rose even further. Of course, with all those fly balls comes a pretty high home run rate as well. That seems to be his one weakness in his old age. But when you’re not walking anyone and allowing very few base hits, a few solo home runs don’t really hurt all that much. When he needs to generate weak contact, he can turn to either of his breaking balls. That boom or bust approach to pitching has helped him strand 91% of the runners that reach against him.

From the previous series preview:

If Justin Verlander hadn’t been a teammate, Gerrit Cole might have made a little more noise in the Cy Young race last year. Like his rotation-mate, he’s completely reinvented himself after joining the Astros. He scrapped his sinker, increased the spin rate on his four-seam fastball, and started throwing his breaking balls far more often. The result was a career-high strikeout rate ten points above his previous best. And like Verlander, leaning into his four-seam fastball resulted in a career-high fly ball rate. His breaking balls aren’t as good at inducing weak contact like Verlander’s. Instead, they’re whiff machines, both generating a swinging strike more than a third of the time a batter swings at them.

Cole has somehow improved upon his career-high strikeout rate from last year, boosting it up to 36.6%. He’s also cut his walk rate by a point and a half giving him the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career. But instead of completely dominating the American League, he’s been really hurt by the long ball. That’s pushed his ERA up to 3.42 even though his xFIP is well below 3.

The Big Picture: