Series Preview: Mariners (32-46) vs. Orioles (21-53)

This four-game series between the Mariners and the Orioles is not the baseball anyone (barring the Cespedes BBQ boys) wants to see, but it may also be the matchup we all deserve. The O’s are limping into T-Mobile with an eight-game losing streak and the worst record in all of baseball, while the M’s continue to execute a full-scale retreat from competence. The baseball will be assuredly bad, but the silver lining of mutual ineptitude is that there will subsequently be plenty of room for nonsense.

Last year the Orioles finished 47-115. It was their worst record in franchise history. There’s a not-insignificant chance that Baltimore fares even more poorly this year: They currently have a worse record than that 2018 squad did at this point last season. They’re on pace to end 2019 a staggering 46-116.

The most compelling part of Baltimore’s major league squad this year is whether they will surpass the MLB record for home runs allowed (set by the Reds in 2016). This bodes well for the dinger-happy Mariners, and should at least make for an offensively entertaining series. All our snark here is merely gentle pebble-tossing in our own glass house, though. As SBN brethren Camden Chat notes, the Mariners haven’t strung together back-to-back wins since May 14th.

Trey Mancini has been one of the few bright spots for the O’s this season. He’s cut his strikeout rate down under 20% and is hitting for more power than ever before. As you’d expect, that explosion of power has come with a corresponding increase in fly balls and hard hit rate. Mancini suffered a (fortunately minor) elbow contusion last night and will likely be out for the next few days. Renato Núñez has also been a pleasant surprise. A modest prospect with A’s, he bounced from Oakland to Texas to Baltimore and his power has flourished with consistent playing time. Unfortunately, his lack of defensive chops have relegated him to designated hitter.

Probable Pitchers

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

It’s worth wondering whether Dylan Bundy would find greater success if he just had a change of scenery. He has two above average pitches in his repertoire but his results have never followed. A good strikeout-to-walk ratio sitting around three for his career has been completely undone by a huge home run problem. His fastball was the main culprit. He allowed a staggering 20 home runs off his fastball last year and has allowed nine so far this year. Both his slider and changeup generate excellent results, getting both whiffs and groundballs. Opposing batters are whiffing against his slider more than half the time they swing at it—the third highest whiff rate on a slider in the majors. If he was ever encouraged to throw his secondary pitches more often than his fastball, he could see a huge positive swing in results.

An eleventh round pick with meager minor league stats is leading the Orioles pitching staff in fWAR. For an organization that has constantly struggled to develop pitching, John Means has been a revelation. A strength program this offseason (not unlike the Mariners’ “gas camp”) has helped him increase his fastball velocity from the high 80s to the low 90s. But the pitch that has really put him on the map is his changeup. That pitch comes in at 80 mph which is all the more impressive now that his fastball velocity is a bit higher. As a lefty, he almost exclusively throws his changeup to right-handers and will use an okay slider against left-handed batters. He’s only pitched through the sixth inning once this year, which has left plenty of time for the Baltimore bullpen to perform their own interpretive dance of the fire drill scene from “The Office.”

Andrew Cashner is another example of a pitcher with good raw stuff whose results just haven’t followed. He has decent velocity on his fastball and good movement on his breaking pitches but batters just aren’t fooled by either. His biggest problem is that he doesn’t really have a put away pitch. His fastball and changeup generate decent whiff rates but he often turns to his breaking balls when ahead in the count. Neither breaking ball is all that effective so he’s struggled to retire batters consistently.

Well, would you look at that, another Orioles pitcher with decent stuff and disappointing results. But rather than a fastball with tons of ride like the previous three starters, Gabriel Ynoa’s fastball has tons of sink to it. That’s led to fewer swings-and-misses and more balls in play. His slider is merely okay, though he leans a little too heavily on it. His changeup has actually shown some promise this year. He’s increased the whiff rate on the pitch to over 40% but he just doesn’t throw it often enough for it to make much of a difference.

The Big Picture: