In what’s becoming a recurring theme, the Mariners outscored the Yankees 18-16 across their four-game series, but came away with just a single win. If you look at the Mariners offensive output over the last two weeks, there’s three massive, double-digit blowouts and then a bunch of low scoring games that follow. Even though they’re averaging 4.5 runs per game over the last two weeks, it feels more like they’re averaging around 2.5 runs per game. A huge blowout win is fun every once in a while but they really need to figure out how to spread out these runs.
At a Glance
Mariners | Red Sox |
---|---|
Mariners | Red Sox |
Game 1 | Friday, May 10 | 4:10 pm |
RHP Erik Swanson | LHP Eduardo Rodríguez |
39% | 61% |
Game 2 | Saturday, May 11 | 10:05 am |
RHP Félix Hernández | RHP Rick Porcello |
39% | 61% |
Game 3 | Sunday, May 12 | 10:05 am |
LHP Marco Gonzales | TBD |
41% | 59% |
Team Overview
Overview | Red Sox | Mariners | Edge |
---|---|---|---|
Overview | Red Sox | Mariners | Edge |
Batting (wRC+) | 95 (10th in AL) | 119 (2nd in AL) | Mariners |
Fielding (DRS) | -3 (9th) | -33 (15th) | Red Sox |
Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 101 (8th) | 101 (9th) | Red Sox |
Bullpen (FIP-) | 93 (7th) | 115 (13th) | Red Sox |
After their rough start in which they won just seven of their first 20 games, the Boston Red Sox have bounced back with 12 wins in 18 games. Of course, 10 of those wins came against the Tigers, Athletics, White Sox, and Orioles so they weren’t necessarily beating up on the cream of the AL crop. But that hot streak has pushed their record back to .500 along with their run differential. It seems like they’re just now waking up from their World Series hangover.
Red Sox Lineup
Player | Position | Bats | PA | BABIP | wRC+ | BsR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Position | Bats | PA | BABIP | wRC+ | BsR |
Andrew Benintendi | LF | L | 155 | 0.337 | 115 | 0.8 |
Mookie Betts | RF | R | 168 | 0.306 | 139 | -1.0 |
J.D. Martinez | DH | R | 159 | 0.336 | 124 | -0.5 |
Xander Bogaerts | SS | R | 158 | 0.277 | 111 | 0.6 |
Rafael Devers | 3B | L | 155 | 0.360 | 111 | 0.7 |
Michael Chavis | 2B | R | 71 | 0.333 | 177 | -0.3 |
Mitch Moreland | 1B | L | 127 | 0.178 | 111 | -0.8 |
Christian Vázquez | C | R | 99 | 0.294 | 110 | -0.7 |
Jackie Bradley Jr. | CF | L | 123 | 0.217 | 14 | 0.7 |
It’s interesting that the Red Sox overall offensive line is 5% below league average but eight of their nine starters have posted an above average line so far. Michael Chavis was only recently called up, but Jackie Bradley Jr., Eduardo Núñez, and a few other role players have really dragged the team down. Chavis has been extremely impressive in his brief time in the majors. He’s crushing the ball, is taking plenty of walks, and has shown great versatility by playing out of position at second base. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have shown signs of breaking out of their early season funk. The power output isn’t there yet, but they’re getting on base a ton. That’s actually a feature of their entire lineup. Eight of their nine regulars have posted a walk rate over 10% so far this year.
Probable Pitchers
LHP Eduardo Rodríguez
IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
36 2/3 | 25.2% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 47.7% | 5.40 | 3.54 |
Pitch Type | Frequency | Velocity | Spin Rate | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ |
Four-seam | 44.0% | 93.2 | 2201 | 104 | 161 | 72 |
Sinker | 9.5% | 92.9 | 2194 | |||
Cutter | 20.1% | 88.0 | 2211 | 73 | 143 | 106 |
Changeup | 20.1% | 87.8 | 2084 | 80 | 136 | 120 |
Slider | 6.3% | 79.9 | 2306 |
From the previous series preview:
A lingering knee injury has prevented Eduardo Rodríguez from putting together a full season on the mound since injuring it back in 2016. He was able to put together his best season of his career last year, posting career-bests in strikeout-to-walk ratio, ERA, and FIP. Much of his success comes via an elevated fastball paired with an excellent changeup. Opposing batters hit just three extra-base hits off his changeup last year. But he’s always struggled to find a consistent third pitch. He’s dabbled with a slider/cutter—the pitch is thrown with the same grip but at different velocities—but he might have settled on the cutter last year. He threw that version of the pitch far more often than the slider and it was effective in limiting hard contact.
Rodríguez has gone all-in on featuring his cutter as his third pitch this year. Not only has it helped him limit hard contact, but he’s also generating a huge number of whiffs with it now. He’s been really unlucky to post such a high ERA—his huge BABIP could be related to the spike in ground balls he’s generated this year.
RHP Rick Porcello
IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IP | K% | BB% | HR/FB% | GB% | ERA | FIP |
37 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 15.9% | 40.7% | 5.11 | 5.16 |
Pitch Type | Frequency | Velocity | Spin Rate | Stuff+ | Whiff+ | BIP+ |
Four-seam | 31.9% | 92.0 | 2460 | 66 | 103 | 111 |
Sinker | 27.4% | 90.4 | 2337 | 91 | 113 | 97 |
Changeup | 11.4% | 82.1 | 1657 | |||
Curveball | 9.6% | 75.8 | 2785 | |||
Slider | 19.8% | 85.2 | 2590 | 100 | 77 | 141 |
From the previous series preview:
Rick Porcello has vacillated between good years and bad years since joining the Red Sox in 2015. Last year was a good year, so I guess he’s due for a bad year in 2019. He’s consistently tinkered with his pitch mix since moving to Boston which might explain why his results have swung back and forth so much. Over the last four years, he’s dropped the usage of his sinker year-over-year and started throwing his four-seam fastball far more often. He’s able to generate a much higher whiff rate with the four-seamer but it’s also led to a corresponding drop in his ground ball rate. Last year, he started throwing his slider almost a quarter of the time, though the results didn’t exactly follow. It may have helped his fastball become even more effective however. We’ll see if all that tinkering pays off if he’s able to break that pattern of ups and downs this year.
Porcello’s early season numbers are really skewed by two disastrous outings against the Mariners and the Diamondbacks to start the season. He allowed 16 runs in those two starts and has allowed just 10 in the five starts since.
The Big Picture:
AL West
Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
Astros | 23-15 | 0.605 | -- | W-W-L-W-W |
Mariners | 20-20 | 0.500 | 4.0 | W-L-L-W-L |
Rangers | 17-18 | 0.486 | 4.5 | W-W-L-W-L |
Angels | 17-20 | 0.459 | 5.5 | L-L-W-L-W |
Athletics | 17-22 | 0.436 | 6.5 | L-L-W-W-L |
Wild Card
Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W-L | W% | Games Behind | Recent Form |
Yankees | 22-15 | 0.595 | +1.5 | W-W-W-L-W |
Cleveland | 20-16 | 0.556 | -- | L-L-L-W-W |
Mariners | 20-20 | 0.500 | 2.0 | W-L-L-W-L |
Red Sox | 19-19 | 0.500 | 2.0 | W-W-L-W-W |
Rangers | 17-18 | 0.486 | 4.5 | W-W-L-W-L |
The Astros started off a four-game series against the Rangers with a thrilling win last night. Both the Angels and the Athletics won their series this week, against the Tigers and the Reds respectively. The Angels travel to Baltimore while the Athletics host Cleveland this weekend.