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FPF: the "Soft Buy"

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LLer K.P.S.90 has a plan for the rest of 2019 and he's gonna tell you all about it!

The Mariners are 13-2 and exceeding expectations; the offense looks legitimately threatening and explosive. However, starts like this do not guarantee anything; the Angels started 2018 with 13 wins and 3 losses finishing the season 67-79.

This armchair GM is purposing a slightly different approach than the standard double down, hold ‘em, or fold ‘em plans: the soft buy. To continue with the poker analogy, this would be synonymous to calling from the small-blind with a mediocre hand.

  • Step 1: Trade the Competitive Round B selection the Mariners were awarded, #76 overall (with a spending allotment of $818,200), for the most electric young reliever in the MLB or AAA/AA available. This makes sense on its own because the Mariners have seemed to favor older draft prospects recently and this brings in an impact reliever for the 2021 contention window who can hopefully help now as well. The current Mariners bullpen likely cannot play matchups all year and succeed with Roenis Elias, Brandon Brennan, and Anthony Swarzak as the only good options.
    • This leaves the M's with draft picks #20 ($3,242,900 allotment); #59 ($1,185,500); #97 ($599,100); and #126 ($451,800) as their top four selections. However, it also makes the next step easier to stomach.
    • Feel free to suggest a few names who could fill this vague role in the comments.
  • Step 2: Sign Dallas Keuchel for 2 years and $35MM with a team option for $15MM*. This move would cost the Mariners their third highest draft pick, formerly #76 but now #97, and $500,000 in International Bonus money. Besides the cash involved in a Dallas Keuchel deal, losing the third highest pick and international spending money hurts— which is part of the justification for cashing in the #76 pick in a trade.
    • The Mariners would be left short-handed in International Spending capacity with only $4,898,300 in cash. Only more than the Dodgers; Braves, who have $0 due to violations; Nationals; and Phillies.
    • Instead of losing pick #76 and using #97 in the draft, these two concurrent steps leave the more valuable pick (#76) used in a trade and the lesser pick forfeited to the ether. In fact this kind of draft pick gaming might even be something other teams are considering as they look at Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel left on the free agent market as victims of collusion and/or twenty teams tanking.
    • *This contract is a stand-in for whatever it would take to get 2 years and a team option. Obviously this plan falls apart if Mariners' ownership refuses to green-light spending at this level. Keuchel has said he wants to sign for more than the qualifying offer was worth ($17.9MM) or on a multi-year deal.

Ultimately the hope here is the Mariners' offense is for real and the defense is better than it has played so far; rendering the desire to add talent reasonable. It seems far more pragmatic to sacrifice unnamed potential players who are literally months away from even having names than to trade from what is suddenly an exciting Mariners' farm. It also allows the team to focus on the 2021 contention window.

The success of a soft buy revolves around Dallas Keuchel remaining a better pitcher than most of who the Mariners already have. Missing Spring Training is a huge concern, however it's not necessarily a death knell: Kyle Lohse missed most or all of spring training in 2013 and still managed to pitch 198 innings of 3.35 ERA for the Brewers. Fangraphs‘ Steamer projection system sees Keuchel as worth 2.4 fWAR over 157 innings this season— far better than most of the Mariners' options. Dallas Keuchel also fits in with the Mariners' current trend of utilizing starters with lower velocity than the the rest of the league.

This plan also benefits from the hope that if the Mariners turn into pretenders Keuchel can be either traded for roughly the equivalent value of a number #97 draft pick and $500,000 in International Spending capacity or jettisoned before 2021 without hampering future spending ability too much.