Series Preview: Mariners (78-62) vs. Yankees (87-53)

A series win against the Orioles was the bare minimum the Mariners needed to keep pace in the Wild Card race. But failing to get the sweep means they missed an opportunity to gain a game on the Athletics. The Yankees are partly to blame for that. They won just a single game in Oakland, doing as little as possible to help out the Mariners. The stress and tension of the Wild Card chase boiled over on Tuesday, resulting in a minor fracas in the Mariners clubhouse. Let’s hope they used the home off day yesterday to refocus and recharge heading into the last few weeks of the season.

The Yankees have comfortably held the first Wild Card spot since the end of June. They had challenged the Red Sox for the AL East division before then but lost ground in July and August as the Red Sox started to run away with the division. They’re now further behind the Red Sox than the Mariners are from the Astros.

Even with a playoff spot all but locked up, they were still pretty active before and after the trade deadline. They added a number of pitchers to their staff: Zach Britton gives them another lockdown reliever for their bullpen and J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn solidify their rotation. And with Aaron Judge out with a fractured wrist since the end of July, they also went out and picked up Andrew McCutchen at the end of August. But their most impactful acquisition was the one that flew under the radar: Luke Voit.

Greg Bird has suffered through a litany of lower body injuries and when he’s been healthy, he just hasn’t been able to contribute offensively. Enter Luke Voit. Since joining the Yankees, he’s put up a 176 wRC+ with a .333 ISO and seven home runs in 20 games. Almost half the fly balls he’s hit in a Yankee uniform have gone over the fence. He doesn’t have any other extra-base hits besides those seven dingers. He has a good minor league track record so this isn’t coming out of nowhere, but he’s obviously playing way over his head right now. Their two rookie infielders—Miguel Andújar and Gleyber Torres—have injected a ton of production into the lineup. They’ve posted identical 128 wRC+ this year behind an almost identical ISO (.226 and .224). The biggest difference in their value is on defensive. Andújar has been one of the worst third basemen in the league and has been a real liability at the hot corner.

Probable Pitchers

Masahiro Tanaka has done everything he can to keep his extreme home run problems in check. Last year, he allowed 35 home runs and his home-run-per-fly-ball rate was the highest among all qualified starting pitchers. Opposing batters did most of their damage against his sinker (.284 ISO) and his cutter (.375 ISO). He’s reduced the usage of both pitches this year, turning to his excellent splitter and his four-seam fastball more often. That’s helped a bit but it hasn’t been the miracle solution he was hoping for. The ISO allowed off his cutter is up to .539 (!) and it turns out his four-seam fastball is just as home run prone as his sinker was. If he has a good feel for his splitter and can locate his fastball, he can be dominant. But as soon as his command breaks down, the balls start to fly over the fence.

After missing the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, Lance Lynn was back on the horse, making 33 starts for the Cardinals just a year after his surgery. While his durability wasn’t affected by his arm injury, he didn’t have the same command of his repertoire that he had before. He posted career worsts in both strikeout rate and walk rate. Still, his ERA was more than a run lower than his FIP as he benefitted from some excellent batted ball luck. He signed a one-year deal with the Twins this offseason and still hasn’t looked right. His strikeouts returned but his walk rate has jumped up again and all that batted ball luck has dried up. The Yankees picked him up from the Twins right before the trade deadline and he’s made six starts for them.

CC Sabathia is the player that comes up most often when discussing the adjustments Félix Hernández needs to make in this stage of his career. Once a power pitcher with a blazing fastball, Sabathia has transformed himself over the last half decade as his velocity has deteriorated with age. Rather than overpowering batters, he’s developed an excellent cutter that he can command around the strike zone. That gives him the ability to manage the contact he allows extremely well. Since introducing the cutter in 2016, he’s led the majors in soft contact and has allowed an extremely low 84.3 mph average exit velocity. All that soft contact has allowed him to well outperform his peripherals with a BABIP that sits well below average. It’s certainly possible this will be his final year in the majors. He contemplated retirement last year and has said he’ll retire if the Yankees win the World Series.

The Big Picture:

Almost the entire American League was off yesterday so there wasn’t any movement in the standings. The Rangers travel to Oakland for a three-game set with the A’s. After sweeping the Twins at home, the Astros travel to Boston for the weekend. That series should be a great preview of a potential ALCS matchup.