Series Preview: Mariners (58-36) at Rockies (48-45)

Instead of heading into the All-Star break with a ton of confidence and a head of steam, the Mariners are sort of limping through these last few weeks of the first half. Losing the series to the Angels yesterday is less concerning than the injury James Paxton suffered in his abbreviated start. Luckily, he has a while to heal up before the Mariners need to call on him again (the same goes for Félix). At this point, the Mariners would be happy to just get to the All-Star break to earn some much needed rest.

I think the Rockies surprised everyone when they won the three-game series in Seattle last week. It wasn’t an offensive explosion that drove their success, it was their pitching staff. In the 10 games they’ve played in July, they’ve held their opponents to just 2.5 runs per game, and six of those games were played at home. That’s pretty out of the ordinary considering they’ve allowed 5.9 runs per game while playing in Coors Field this year. They just won a series against the Diamondbacks that included a 19-2 drubbing on Wednesday.

Chad Bettis was on track to make a start on Saturday, but a setback with the blister he was dealing with means he won’t be able to. Jon Gray would be on five days rest but I’m not sure the Rockies want to recall him from his minor league exile just yet. It’s possible they’ll just go with a bullpen day, especially since we’re so close to the All-Star break.

After struggling for much of the year, Carlos González has begun to come alive recently. He had five hits in Seattle, including a home run and hit a couple more in their 19-2 rout against the Diamondbacks. Over the last few years, González hasn’t been able to replicate the impressive power numbers he posted earlier in his career. But like all Rockies hitters, he’s been much better at home than on the road. A big sophomore slump for Trevor Story dampened some of the excitement he generated during his rookie season. But this year, he’s bounced back to the offensive levels he showed off in 2016. The biggest difference has been a nine point drop in his strikeout rate.

Probable Pitchers

Antonio Senzatela made the jump from Double-A to the majors last season, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. With a two-pitch repertoire, he’s probably stretched a little too thin as a starter. But he gets the most out of those two pitches, a sinking four-seam fastball and a slider. Like many of the Rockies starters, he generates a ton of ground ball contact and manages to limit walks fairly well. His slider plays up away from Coors Field, getting a little more break away from the thin air. That translates to more whiffs on the road and a higher strikeout rate. With Jon Gray demoted to Triple-A for some baffling reason, Senzatela has been inserted back into the Rockies rotation.

Senzatela allowed six runs in six innings in his start against the Mariners last week. He was erratic at first but was able to settle down until the sixth inning.

Tyler Anderson is one of the few Rockies starters who does not possess an above average ground ball rate. And as you’d expect, a fly ball heavy approach has really hurt him when he’s pitching at home. He’s actually allowing more fly balls at home than on the road, leading to a ton of dingers. But despite all that, he’s managed to keep his home ERA right around 4.00. That’s because his pitch repertoire helps him generate a ton of pop ups as well. That’s helped him keep his BABIP fairly low to along with the regular BABIP suppression that comes with a fly ball oriented profile. He’s also oddly running a reverse platoon split. Relying on a changeup and a fairly straight cutter as his primary secondary offerings, left-handed batters have been able to hit him well this season (.364 wOBA).

The Big Picture:

Yesterday, the Athletics wrapped up their series win in Houston, taking three of four from the Astros. I’m not sure whether or not that’s a good thing for the Mariners. The A’s have cut the Wild Card deficit to just five games but the Mariners are still just three games behind the Astros. The A’s will “travel” to San Francisco this weekend while the Astros host the Tigers. The Angels will wrap up their first half with a series against the Dodgers in LA.