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The official Mariners’ offseason trade value vs. trade likelihood matrix

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Jerry Dipoto has taught us to expect trades, but this offseason could be unlike any other.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands, the Mariners 40-man roster is at a gasping 32 men. Given the speed of Jerry Dipoto in the offseason, that likely won’t last long, but in an attempt to anticipate some of these moving pieces we created our own Shea Serrano-tribute chart. There is, of course, still plenty of uncertainty about what direction the team will take, but when you’re a fan of Dipoto’s team there are two things we can hold to be certain: death and trades. This offseason, between an unlikelihood of increased spending and the stated desire to contend somewhere between 2019-2021, it seems prudent to us to focus more heavily than last offseason on the possibility of trades than simply trawling free agency. And so, that begins in earnest today.

Upper Left = high value, unlikely to be dealt. Upper Right = high value, likelier to be dealt. Lower Left = low value, unlikely to be dealt. Lower Right = low value, likelier to be dealt.
Tee Miller

Mike Zunino (C)

Trade value: You know those mystery bag fundraisers? Zunino is (in the eyes of other teams) a $1 grab bag. Maybe you get lucky, but you’re not going to shell out much.

Likelihood of trade: He’s our $1 grab bag, he’s cheap, and goodness knows there’s no one primed for starting catcher in the minors. Trade at your own risk (hi Yasmani).

David Freitas (C)

Trade value: Freitas is a backup catcher’s backup catcher. A real guy’s guy, you know? Another team could acquire him, but they probably have their own version already.

Likelihood of trade: Low-to-moderate, especially now that Chris Herrmann is gone. This says less about his ability to be the Mariners backup catcher in 2019, though, and more about the fact I think Jerry simply may forget about him.

Kyle Seager (3B)

Trade value: So low, just like his wRC+ this last season. He’s weathered two down years, but could still rebound (right? RIGHT??) and might be just tempting enough.

Likelihood of trade: Not as high as we might like. Seager’s carrying one of the pricier contracts, which makes it intriguing to trade him away, but subsequently also a tougher ask.

Jean Segura (SS)

Trade value: What some feared to be a fluke in Arizona seems to no longer be the case. Segura’s a solid hitter at a premium position, which should command decent value, and no, what are you doing, don’t look at those splits towards the end just hush okay.

Likelihood of trade: Well, he’s got a no-trade clause, which isn’t ironclad but certainly lowers the likelihood substantially. There are only a handful of players I’d be more surprised to see leave this offseason.

Robinson Canó (2B)

Trade value: He’s Robinson Can: possible future Hall of Famer; he’s also Robinson Canó: recently suspended for PEDs. He’s one of the greatest hitters of the generation, with a good year or two of second base defense left, but unfortunately has a contract to match. Which leads us to...

Likelihood of trade: Nah, dude

Dee Gordon (2B/OF)

Trade value: Gordon could be marketed as a decent 2B with some new quasi-positional flexibility in a way that could be appealing to National League teams especially. Flexibility - good. Speed - good. Everything else - bad.

Likelihood of trade: High. Dee, like Seager, is carrying a high contract coming off a down year. Unlike Seager, there’s a more compelling case he could bounce back, and he’s also at a more expendable position.

Ryon Healy (1B)

Trade Value: He’s...cheap? And young(ish)? And he could be yours forever, anonymous MLB team. Unfortunately most MLB teams have some variant of him at the AAA level already.

Likelihood of trade: Until Daniel Vogelbach sheds the Vidal Nuño Cloak of Invisibility it looks to be Healy or bust, though there are certainly some compelling 1Bs Dipoto could acquire.

Daniel Vogelbach (1B/DH)

Trade value: By hiding Vogelbach in Triple-A and refusing to give him at-bats while he was in Seattle, the Mariners have systematically driven his trade value down.

Likelihood of trade: Two factors push this high: one - Vogey is out of minor league options, and two - Joey Curletta and Evan White are breathing down his neck. I think he deserves the opportunity to go somewhere, anywhere, else and attempt to flourish.

Mitch Haniger (OF)

Trade value: As high as John believed Haniger’s ceiling could be two years ago. 2018 proved Mitch to be a bonafide star, and he still hasn’t even reached arbitration.

Likelihood of trade: About as nonexistent as it could be. It’s not just that he’s good, it’s that he’s good, cheap, and in his prime.

Ben Gamel (OF)

Trade value: Decent. He’s young, he’s cheap, he put up a reasonable season. No one will be clamoring for him, but in a bigger trade he could be a piece that gets it done.

Likelihood of trade: Eh. Similarly to Haniger, it doesn’t make a ton of sense to jettison Gamel, though it wouldn’t be a total surprise.

Guillermo Heredia (OF)

Trade value: Real low. He’s a fungible 4th OF with strong defense, but an utter liability on the basepaths.

Likelihood of trade: Similarly low. Heredia struggled last season, and his value, which was already low, nosedived.

Kristopher Negrón (UTIL)

Trade value: Nonexistent, like your memories of him a year from now.

Likelihood of trade: I mean...why? Sure, but why?

Joey Curletta (1B/OF)

Trade value: Though technically an unranked prospect, Curletta was Texas League Player of the Year, and the Mariners Minor League Hitter of the Year. The 24-year-old has re-gained some semblance of prospect sheen since he was ranked 30th in the Dodgers org in 2012.

Likelihood of trade: Curletta is far more valuable to the Mariners than he is to an outside organization. They liked him enough to protect him by putting him on the 40-man, so it doesn’t seem like Curletta’s headed anywhere.

John Andreoli (OF)

Trade value: The 2018 Baltimore Orioles DFAd him. No more needs to be said.

Likelihood of trade: See: trade value

Dan Altavilla (RHP)

Trade Value: Inconsistent command followed by a worrying injury doesn’t speak highly, but guys who throw 100 don’t quite grow on trees yet.

Likelihood of trade: Decent. Alt wouldn’t be a centerpiece right now, but he could tip a larger deal.

Shawn Armstrong (RHP)

Trade Value: A useful middle reliever doesn’t command much, but this could change by midseason next year.

Likelihood of trade: Armstrong should stick around and possibly snag a bullpen spot, but he cleared waivers in the past year and lacks much trade luster right now.

Chasen Bradford (RHP)

Trade Value: Well the Mets didn’t want him, nor did the entire NL.

Likelihood of trade: Bradford would hit waivers before the trade block.

Álex Colomé (RHP)

Trade Value: Good relief pitchers with closer experience get traded for all the time. It’s why Colomé was acquired, and it’s why he’ll be desired this year.

Likelihood of trade: High. Colomé’s high salary in his final arbitration year may put some teams off, but whether now or midseason, he figures to fetch a useful return if Seattle is anything less than competitive.

Edwin Díaz (RHP)

Trade Value: Trailing only Haniger and arguably Paxton, Díaz is Seattle’s most fascinating player to offer in any trade.

Likelihood of trade: Given this winter’s uncertainty, above-average. The conundrum is clear. Seattle needs the players Díaz could bring in return, but what made Seattle work last season was the unmatched dominance Edwin brought.

Roénis Elías (LHP)

Trade Value: Roénis was traded last year for literally just cash instead of a mysteriously physical-failing Eric Filia. So not much.

Likelihood of trade: More likely to be waived than dealt, Elías will likely remain a Mariner in the bullpen at least through Spring Training.

Matt Festa (RHP)

Trade Value: Not the dynamic arm that Edwin Díaz is, nor the high-velocity eye-catcher Altavilla has been, Festa is a decent bullpen guy with little experience, but a modicum of value.

Likelihood of trade: Festa is the perfect add-on to a larger deal, and Seattle has shown an ability to churn out effective bullpen arms from their minors over the past few years.

Marco Gonzales (LHP)

Trade Value: One of Seattle’s most valuable trade chips, Marco is a 27-year-old post-hype performer who could help any rotation.

Likelihood of trade: Barring a full rebuild, Marco isn’t going anywhere.

Félix Hernández (RHP)

Trade Value: Straight-up, no team would deal for Félix. If Seattle were to swallow the vast majority of the $27.86 million owed to him, they could probably find a partner.

Likelihood of trade: Jerry Dipoto likely would take any offer for The King that he could at this point. There will be offers - it depends what the cost point will be.

Casey Lawrence (RHP)

Trade Value:

Likelihood of trade: CLaw has made it through waivers once already in his time in Seattle and would likely do so again now.

Mike Leake (RHP)

Trade Value: The Abiyoyo of the Mariners staff can gobble up innings anywhere he goes. He’s not typically the arm a playoff team would go for, but perhaps a contender like the Brewers with a non-existent rotation would bite.

Likelihood of trade: Low. Leake’s contract is reasonable, but still a pretty penny. Moreover, contending or not, the M’s need innings as much as any team.

Wade LeBlanc (LHP)

Trade Value: 30 teams have had numerous chances to claim Wade throughout his career. Seven have done so. One shiny season doesn’t change that much.

Likelihood of trade: Next to none. Wade can handle the rotation or the bullpen and just received his first ever contract extension after a decade in MLB.

Juan Nicasio (RHP)

Trade Value: Reasonable. While Nicasio had a chasmic gap between his results and his peripherals, the 32-year-old is little more than a 1/$8 million above-average reliever. That’s spendy, but has value.

Likelihood of trade: This offseason, decent. Midseason, high. Coming off a minor knee surgery, Nicasio is a prime candidate to be flipped at the deadline to a contender in exchange for a lottery ticket once he rebuilds a bit of value.

James Paxton (LHP)

Trade Value: After Haniger, Paxton is Seattle’s second-most valuable trade chip, although a case could be made for Díaz as well.

Likelihood of trade: Decent. Pax has two years remaining, and the return for him could fuel the next competitive Mariners team. The best shot a Mariners team has at being competitive soon might be this year or next year, however, and they’d need an ace like Paxton to do so.

James Pazos (LHP)

Trade Value: Papa Paz is at worst a solid LOOGY whose age and ability to vex opposite-handers makes him a nifty target. His velocity dip and loss of effectiveness in the second half keeps him out of blue chip territory.

Likelihood of trade: Low-but-possible. A contender might rightly see Pazos as a piece to shore up an otherwise strong roster. He’s part of what makes Seattle’s pen tick, but if 2019 isn’t a priority, the M’s would move him for the right return.

Max Povse (RHP)

Trade Value: Measuring this in fairness means acknowledging Povse still likely holds more value than, say, Casey Lawrence, but relative to what it could be, Povse’s value is in the cellar your other cellars don’t like to talk about.

Likelihood of trade: Medium. Povse hasn’t found a role in over two years in Seattle, and spent most of the second half this year on the DL after a promising reset in AA. At 25, he’s best served getting reps, which could come from an eager new organization or the Tacoma Rainiers.

Nick Rumbelow (RHP)

Trade Value: In his first full year back from Tommy John, Rumbelow looked rusty at best, and far from a tempting trade piece.

Likelihood of trade: Low. If a team took a shine to the 27-year-old, he’d surely be available, but as it stands, he seems a good bounce-back candidate for the 2019 pen, and perhaps a future trade deadline.

Sam Tuivailala (RHP)

Trade Value: Coming off a torn Achilles that will hold him out until midseason 2019 most likely, Tui remains intriguing, but he’s filler at most in any deal right now.

Likelihood of trade: Extremely low. Whether they’re contending or not, a guy with upper-90s velocity coming off injury would only be dealt if his value rose.