This week, John and Kate are joined by Casey Boguslaw of ForwardMile.com to talk some analytics and Statcast metrics, what to expect from the Mariners outfield, and about the fine city of Chicago. Casey used to run the site RObaseball.com, and has done a lot of work on the many numbers Statcast has provided us. Last year he wrote about the possibilities of outfield defense as an underrated metric for The Hardball Times. We picked his brain about building on those theories, and what goes into the making of a new metric.
0 - 5:00: Introductions and general tomfoolery.
5:00 - 13:00: Barrels and Barrels-FIP chat! Casey explains these metrics and analyzes the data to predict a couple of rebound candidates for the 2018 season.
13:00 - 16:00: Casey discusses Ariel Miranda’s barrel problem, and James Paxton’s lack of barrel problem.
16:00 - 26:00: Outfield defense. Casey talks about why the Mariners’ 2017 outfield defense caught his eye.
26:00 - 30:00 : Casey offers a little bit of hope for Mariners fans regarding the Astros’ acquisition of Gerrit Cole, and then promptly snatches that hope away by reminding us how good the Astros pitching staff is.
30:00 - 36:00: Defensive metrics chat! Casey talks about the importance of understanding the outfield as a unit, and analyzes a few of the best and worst defensive units around the league.
37:00 - 46:00: The risks and rewards of baserunning. Casey offers a surprising factoid about a Mariner who was actually better on the bases than you probably think.
47:00-53:00: John ties everything together with a discussion of how the outfield unit controls the running game, and Casey gives his analytics origin story (the villain is Robin Ventura).
54:00 - Listener questions!
Music: Chicago - Saturday in the Park; The Donkeys - Lower the Heavens
Note: If you’re searching for the podcast to subscribe (and we would love it if you did) please be aware that it is listed as simply “Lookout Landing” and not “Lookout Landing 2.0” which is understandably confusing. We’re sorry.
Enjoy! Leave feedback! And go Mariners.