Series Preview: Mariners (69-68) vs. Astros (83-53)

*Game odds courtesy of FiveThirtyEight (Explainer)

Note: Text appearing in italics has appeared in a previous series preview

The Mariners put their awful end to their most recent road trip behind them byn sweeping the Athletics in their return to Safeco Field. Back within two and a half games of a wild card spot, they are slated to take on the Astros, who own the best record in the American League. The Mariners will have to fight through the heart of Houston’s impressive starting rotation, including the recently acquired Justin Verlander. With any luck, offensive momentum from a series in which the Mariners scored 20 runs will carry over to this tilt with the Astros.

Key Players

RF George Springer – George Springer currently leads the majors in leadoff home runs, with eight of his 21 round trippers coming in his first at bat of a game. His power surge has launched him to a 141 wRC+ through 307 plate appearances. Although his walk rate is down, his plate discipline stats are the best they’ve ever been. His o-zone swing% is lower than ever, while his contact rate is the highest of his career. He’s more selective than in the past, running the lowest swing rate of his career, but is capitalizing on pitches in the zone with his 83.7% z-contact rate.

2B Jose Altuve – Jose Altuve picked up right where he left off last season as one of the league’s most impressive hitters. He’s become a more selective batter, allowing his walk rate to jump to 9.3%, which is leaps and bounds above his career average of 5.9%. He’s swinging at the lowest frequency of his career, but continues to run a z-contact rate above 90%. He’s hitting the ball to all fields this year, which could explain his high BABIP even after a decrease in hard contact rate. Altuve consistently gets it done at the plate, hitting for average and power, and is now capable of drawing walks.

SS Carlos Correa – Carlos Correa is on pace for his best season in the bigs, owning a 141 wRC+. He’s also seen an improvement in plate discipline stats, with a sizable drop in his o-swing%, while seeing an increase in z-contact%. As a result, his hard contact rate is currently at a career high of 39.5%, while his soft contact% has plummeted to 14.1%. Over 41% of Correa’s batted balls are hit to the middle third of the field, and while he still hits his state of grounders, his fly ball rate has jumped to a career high of 33.7%. At just 22 years old, Correa is a mature and developed hitter.

RF Josh Reddick – I love talking about Josh Reddick and his transformation at the plate. When he joined the Athletics in 2012, his strikeout rate was 22.4%; it’s dropped all the way down to 13.7% this year. But increasing his contact rate hasn’t come at the expense of his power. He’s accomplished the impossible by reducing his strikeouts while continuing to punish pitches at the plate. His isolated power is the highest it’s been since 2012 despite hitting just nine home runs. Instead of hitting balls over the fence, he’s posting career highs in almost every other offensive category, helping him post the highest wRC+ of his career.

INF/OF Marwin Gonzalez - Marwin Gonzalez' bat and positional versatility have made way for his best year of his career. A sharp increase in fly ball rate has catapulted his ISO to north of .200. He's also swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone, resulting in the highest walk rate of his career. He's seen time at first base, second base, third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield spots, giving the Astros a variety of ways to get him in the lineup.

3B Alex Bregman - After posting a 105 wRC+ in the first half, Alex Bregman has been unstoppable in the second half. He's cut his strikeout rate to 11.2%, while his ISO has jumped to .237. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone and runs an incredibly high contact rate. And with 16 steals for the season, he's a threat on the base paths.

Probable Pitchers

Notes

Justin Verlander could have won the Cy Young award last year and no one would have blinked twice. After an injury-shortened season in 2015, he removed any lingering doubt about his health by pushing his fastball velocity back to his 95 mph norms and adding a ton of velocity to his slider. This season hasn’t been nearly as good as last year. His walk rate has spiked to 11.6%, the highest mark of his career, and that loss of command has been the root of so many of his problems. His fastball still has the velocity but batters aren’t whiffing on it as often leading to a drop in strikeout rate. His breaking balls aren’t as effective at inducing weak contact leading to a 10 point jump in hard hit rate. All these struggles have combined to balloon his ERA to 4.50, which exactly matches his FIP.

Before his brief stint on the disabled list for a sore back, McCullers seemed like he had made all the adjustments needed to take his big step forward. His stuff is already dominant. His devastating curveball is one of the best in the majors, generating a swinging strike more than a fifth of the time he throws it. He also increased his ground ball rate to well above average last season and it’s even higher this year. The only thing holding him back was his walk rate and that’s dropped to a career low 7.4%. The only nit to pick is his home-run-per-fly-ball rate, but his overall fly ball rate is so low that a 17.1% HR/FB translates to just six home runs allowed this year.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners made up some ground in the wild card race with a series sweep of the Athletics, though they are still two and a half games out and have three teams between them and a playoff spot. The Yankees and the Orioles are set to take each other on, creating a possibility for one of the two teams to slip a little. The Angels, however, will square off with the Athletics, who own the second worst record in the American League. And with the Twins matching up with the Rays, the Mariners have little room for error in this series. Taking two of three seems imperative, otherwise they would be bound to slip a game or two.