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The good news is that the first half is over.
A whole half full of injuries, bad luck, poor pitching and frustration is behind us, and the Mariners have somehow emerged just four games back in the wild card chase, with series left against all but one of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Minnesota Twins). In a typical season, four games under .500 at the All-Star break is death. In a typical season, the Mariners are, in all likelihood, done. This season has been all kinds of silly, however, and the squad finds themselves with a 10.8% chance of nabbing a wild card spot according to FanGraphs. Not great, but certainly not terrible.
That being said, let’s take a look at what they’re up against in the coming weeks:
2017 Seattle Mariners Second Half Schedule
| Team | Record | Pitcher fWAR (Rank) | Team xFIP (Rank) | Batting fWAR (Rank) | Team wRC+ (Rank) | Def (Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | Pitcher fWAR (Rank) | Team xFIP (Rank) | Batting fWAR (Rank) | Team wRC+ (Rank) | Def (Rank) |
| Mariners (for comparison's sake) | 43-47 | 3.3 (28th) | 4.75 (26th) | 12.1 (11th) | 103 (7th) | 0.9 (7th) |
| @ Chicago White Sox | 38-49 | 5.7 (20th) | 4.74 (25th) | 6.6 (22nd) | 94 (19th) | -8.0 (25th) |
| @ Houston Astros | 60-29 | 13.0 (5th) | 3.60 (2nd) | 20.1 (1st) | 128 (1st) | -2.5 (16th) |
| New York Yankees (4 games) | 45-41 | 11.7 (6th) | 3.90 (5th) | 16.3 (4th) | 111 (2nd) | -10.7 (28th) |
| Boston Red Sox | 50-39 | 13.7 (4th) | 3.94 (6th) | 12.5 (8th) | 97 (13th) | -1.3 (11th) |
| New York Mets | 39-47 | 5.5 (22nd) | 4.33 (14th) | 11.6 (14th) | 102 (8th) | -1.3 (12th) |
| @ Texas Rangers | 43-45 | 5.3 (24th) | 4.72 (24th) | 10.3 (16th) | 93 (20th) | 16.3 (1st) |
| @ Kansas City Royals (4 games) | 44-43 | 8.0 (14th) | 4.63 (21st) | 6.1 (24th) | 85 (26th) | -8.4 (26th) |
| @ Oakland Athletics (2 games) | 39-50 | 6.9 (16th) | 4.38 (16th) | 4.7 (28th) | 97 (12th) | -12.1 (30th) |
| Los Angeles Angels (4 games) | 45-47 | 5.9 (19th) | 4.40 (17th) | 7.2 (20th) | 89 (24th) | 11.7 (2nd) |
| Baltimore Orioles | 42-46 | 4.1 (26th) | 4.85 (29th) | 6.2 (23rd) | 91 (22nd) | -5.3 (23rd) |
| @ Tampa Bay Rays | 47-43 | 8.2 (12th) | 4.46 (18th) | 15.6 (6th) | 107 (5th) | 1.2 (6th) |
| @ Atlanta Braves | 42-45 | 3.7 (27th) | 4.72 (23rd) | 7.6 (19th) | 91 (23rd) | -2.9 (18th) |
| @ New York Yankees | 45-41 | 11.7 (6th) | 3.90 (5th) | 16.3 (4th) | 111 (2nd) | -10.7 (28th) |
| @ Baltimore Orioles | 42-46 | 4.1 (26th) | 4.85 (29th) | 6.2 (23rd) | 91 (22nd) | -5.3 (23rd) |
| Oakland Athletics | 39-50 | 6.9 (16th) | 4.38 (16th) | 4.7 (28th) | 97 (12th) | -12.1 (30th) |
| Houston Astros | 60-29 | 13.0 (5th) | 3.60 (2nd) | 20.1 (1st) | 128 (1st) | -2.5 (16th) |
| Los Angeles Angels | 45-47 | 5.9 (19th) | 4.40 (17th) | 7.2 (20th) | 89 (24th) | 11.7 (2nd) |
| @ Texas Rangers (4 games) | 43-45 | 5.3 (24th) | 4.72 (24th) | 10.3 (16th) | 93 (20th) | 16.3 (1st) |
| @ Houston Astros | 60-29 | 13.0 (5th) | 3.60 (2nd) | 20.1 (1st) | 128 (1st) | -2.5 (16th) |
| Texas Rangers | 43-45 | 5.3 (24th) | 4.72 (24th) | 10.3 (16th) | 93 (20th) | 16.3 (1st) |
| Cleveland Indians | 47-40 | 14.2 (2nd) | 3.54 (1st) | 12.5 (7th) | 105 (6th) | -0.1 (8th) |
| @ Oakland Athletics | 39-50 | 6.9 (16th) | 4.38 (16th) | 4.7 (28th) | 97 (12th) | -12.1 (30th) |
| @ Los Angeles Angels | 45-47 | 5.9 (19th) | 4.40 (17th) | 7.2 (20th) | 89 (24th) | 11.7 (2nd) |
The rankings aren’t set in stone. The trade deadline looms and there are deals to be made. Some of these teams will add talent and get better. Some of these teams will sell and, theoretically, get worse. As it stands, however, this is what we’re working with. Here are some general takeaways:
East Coast Invasion
The Mariners will be seeing plenty of East Coast-based teams in the second half, at one point having a home stand featuring the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and New York Mets. We’ll also get a dose of Tampa Bay (three on the road) and a whole bunch of Baltimore (six total games).
The AL West Stretch Run
The Mariners will be running the AL West Gauntlet to close the season, playing 25 of their final 28 games against divisional foes. The three other games will be a home series against Cleveland, who is very good. Yay.
The Rangers are currently the only AL West team the Mariners have a .500+ record against this season (6-3).
A Particularly Long August
August is shaping up to be a brutal month for the Mariners, regardless of what the competition looks like when we reach that point. With long road trips starting and ending the month, Seattle will enjoy just seven games inside the friendly confines of Safeco Field.
As delightful as it is that the Mariners still have a few rays of hope, things will need to change if they want to successfully maneuver through the second half of the season. Just a quick glance at that schedule shows they won’t have many series where they have an obvious advantage. Nearly every aspect of the pitching staff has been a disappointment. With Drew Smyly out for the season, Felix Hernandez struggling, and Hisashi Iwakuma struggling and hurting, the rotation is in a bad place. Ariel Miranda, Andrew Moore, and Sam Gaviglio will be leaned on far more than you’d like; a player outside of the organization may be necessary if they’re serious about going for it. And this all doesn’t even begin to touch on the bullpen, which has been one of the very worst in baseball this season (26th in xFIP, 27th in fWAR). The offense can only be relied upon to carry so much.
It’s a tall order, but Jerry Dipoto doesn’t seem to be the least bit interested in selling.
It’s going to be a ride.
Go Mariners.