Series Preview: Mariners (22-29) at/vs. Rockies (33-19)

Despite possessing the second worst record in the American League, the Mariners are somehow still relevant to the playoff picture after two months. Through no fault of their own. The extreme parity in the American League has the Mariners just 4.5 games back it the Wild Card race. Even with the relative competitiveness of the league, the Mariners would have to leapfrog eight teams to steal the second Wild Card spot. That’s a tall task, even with reinforcements on their way back (I see you James Paxton).

I’ve always enjoyed these home-and-home series. They obviously wouldn’t work for cross-country teams, but they’re a fun concept that recreate a playoff-lite atmosphere. For the Rockies, it’s an interesting model since their home field is so unique in baseball. They’re the best team in the National League because they’ve been so good away from Coors Field. But they’re finding success through their pitching staff, rather than blasting their opponents away with an elite offense. Away from Coors, they’ve allowed just 3.5 runs per game which has helped them post the best away record in baseball by a wide margin. Playing at home has been a different story where they’ve allowed 40 more runs to score (5 runs/game).

The Rockies:

With so many ground ball pitchers on their pitching staff, the Rockies infielders need to be up to the task of turning those balls in play into outs. As a group, their infielders have posted a combined +20 DRS and +7.4 UZR. Offensively, the Rockies haven’t looked as dangerous as you’d expect. Last year’s NL batting champ DJ LeMahieu is batting just .280, Trevor Story is mired in a deep sophomore slump, and slugger Carlos Gonzalez has hit just four home runs this year. Combine these offensive woes with the elite defense and good pitching and you have a bizarro Rockies team that has somehow defied their expectations.

Key Players

3B Nolan Arenado – Mike Trout is the only active player with a higher ISO since 2015 than Nolan Arenado. One of the league’s elite sluggers, Arenado has hit 40 homers or more in the last two full seasons. He’s a fly ball hitter, posting a 42.6% fly ball rate for his career, allowing him many opportunities to leave the yard. Since his breakout 2015, he’s been lethal at home with a .306 ISO at Coors Field. His plate discipline improved dramatically last season, walking at a 9.8% rate. His improved eye carried into 2017, as his o-zone swing% is at a career low of 30.2% through 221 plate appearances in 2017. He’s also reliable in the field, evidenced by his career 9.6 UZR/150 at third base. Arenado is one of the best third baseman in baseball, and at just 26 year’s old may still be getting even better.

CF Charlie Blackmon – After a breakout 2016 season, Charlie Blackmon has continued to pound the baseball to start this year. His offensive season prior to last year saw a 106 wRC+. In 2016, that number jumped to 130. Although he improved across the board, his most noticeable jump was in ISO, which skyrocketed to .228. His fly ball rate reached a career high last year, while he hit fewer grounders than any other season in the bigs. His hard contact rate also jumped to a career high of 34.4% last season. He’s continued to hit the ball hard in 2017, with a 37.2% hard contact rate in 230 plate appearances, leading to a .288 ISO thus far. His speed has dipped a bit since his 43 steal season in 2015, but still poses a threat on the base paths with his wheels. Blackmon is a well-rounded leadoff hitter for a potent offense.

1B Mark Reynolds – Through 48 games in 2017, Mark Reynolds is off to the best start of his career. He’s always been a capable power hitter, but he’s hitting for average at a much higher rate than he ever has. He’s struck out in 30.8% of his plate appearances throughout his career, but is currently running a strikeout rate of just 23.2%, by far the lowest of his career. His o-swing% is down from his career average, while his contact rate is up 4.3% from his career mark. Putting more balls in play, combined with a .368 BABIP, Reynolds is currently slashing .320/.394/.571. HIs .251 ISO through 198 plate appearances suggests that he’s due to return to 30-homer season form for the first time since 2011.

Probable Pitchers

After losing most of 2014 and all of 2015 to Tommy John surgery, Tyler Chatwood returned last year to post a surprising 2.1 fWAR in 27 starts. This season, he’s throwing his fastball with more velocity than ever before. That added oomph has helped him generate a few additional whiffs with those pitches while still allowing him to keep the ball on the ground. Among all qualified pitchers, his ground ball rate ranks sixth this season an 12^th since making his major league debut. All five of his pitches generate a ground ball more than half the time they’re put in play. His breaking balls have been particularly effective this year. Opposing batters have just a single extra-base hit off a breaking pitch and have yet to record a single hit off his curveball. It might seem like he would be a perfect fit for Coors Field but he’s actually had a reverse home split for much of his career, and it’s just as pronounced this year.

Tyler Anderson possesses a unique pitch repertoire that might only work for someone who calls Coors Field home. His three pitch mix—a fastball, a cutter, and a changeup—is almost perfectly suited to combat the effects of high altitude on a pitcher. Even more interesting is his refusal to throw his curveball, particularly when he’s pitching at home. In his debut season last year, he combined a decent strikeout rate with good command and a great ground ball rate to post a 3.54/3.59/3.64 pitcher slash line and 2.5fWAR. He hasn’t been able to recreate the same effectiveness this season. His strikeout rate is three points higher, driven by a huge increase in whiffs off his cutter, but it’s come at the cost of some ground balls. He was able to manage the contact against him when batters were putting the ball on the ground more than half the time. This year, opposing batters possess an ISO over .230 off each of his three pitches.

Antonio Senzatela made the jump from Double-A to the majors this year after a few injuries forced the Rockies to dip into their depth. He’s made the most of his ten starts, posting a 3.19/4.36/4.54 pitcher slash line and 0.9 fWAR. With a fastball/slider combination, many scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but his slow, looping slider is thrown more like a slurve than a true hard slider. Despite his limited repertoire, he’s actually posted a surprising slight reverse handedness split. He’s mainly getting by with impeccable fastball command and a little batted ball luck.

Another rookie pitcher making a big impact in the Rockies rotation, Kyle Freeland has been just as impressive—and perplexing—as Antonio Senzatela. At least with Freeland, we can see exactly how he’s found so much success so quickly. Among all qualified starters, Freeland’s 61.4% ground ball rate ranks second behind Dallas Keuchel. As you’d expect, all five of his pitches generate a ground ball more than half the time they’re put in play. When opposing batters do put the ball in the air, they’re popping it up 13.6% of the time. All those weakly hit balls in play have help him overcome a high walk rate and a poor strikeout rate. Despite the uncharacteristically high walk rate in the majors, scouts agree that Freeland’s command is his best skill.

The Big Picture:

The Astros swept the Orioles over the weekend, pushing Baltimore’s losing streak to seven games. We’re just a third of the way through the season and the Astros have basically wrapped up the division race barring some sort of epic collapse. They’ll travel to Minnesota to take on the surprising AL Central leader. The Orioles will hope to snap their losing streak against the AL East leading Yankees. Both the Angels and the Rangers lost their respective series over the weekend, dropping their records below .500. The Angels return home to face the Braves while the Rangers host the Rays.