Series Preview: Mariners (19-22) vs. White Sox (17-21)

With their series win against the A’s, the Mariners have won every series they’ve played at home since losing their home opening series against the Astros. They’ll need another series win against the White Sox because the next stretch of games will be very difficult. After these four games, the Mariners will head out on another long road trip, visiting Washington, Boston, and Denver. If they make it through that stretch with a record around .500, they’ll be setup nicely for a strong June where they’ll play 19 of their 27 games at home.

The White Sox:

By selling off Chris Sale and Adam Eaton over the winter, the White Sox restocked their organization with a number of high-level prospects that should form the core of a good team in a few years. Until then, they’ll be struggling through a rebuilding process that will be painful to watch. Under the radar breakouts from Avisail Garcia and Leury Garcia are good signs and helped the White Sox post a record three games over .500 in April. They’ve come crashing back down to Earth in May as their pitching staff has been ravaged by injuries. They were just swept by the Angels in Anaheim.

Key Players

1B Jose Abreu – Jose Abreu burst onto the scene in 2014, winning the AL Rookie of the Year with an impressive 167 wRC+. Although he hasn’t quite matched that production over the past two years, he’s never posted a wRC+ lower than 118 in a season. His power numbers have declined year-over-year, although his strikeout rates have dropped as well. Abreu had been mired in an early season slump but has homered twice in the last three games, launching his ISO back above .200.

3B Todd Frazier – The 2015 home run derby champion, Todd Frazier has seen his home run output increase each year since 2013, peaking last year with 40 bombs. This year, however, the prodigious slugger is off to a slow start. He’s making contact at the highest rate of his career but that additional contact is coming on pitches thrown outside of the zone (a 15 point increase in O-Contact% over last year). That could help explain his 24.7% hard contact rate to start the season, which falls 8.2% below his career average. It seems like a conscious effort to make contact more often, driving his strikeout rate to a career low, but it’s cost him much of his power as well. With a batted ball profile that includes way too many pop ups and not enough line drives, a high contact approach doesn’t seem well suited for Frazier.

LF Melky Cabrera – Entering the final season of a three year deal, Melky Cabrera has struggled mightily in his contract year. A .261 BABIP and .081 ISO contribute to a 67 wRC+, far below last year’s mark of 114. There’s nothing amiss in his batted ball profile so the hits should start falling soon as his BABIP regresses towards his career norms. The lack of power is somewhat more concerning but his 5.4% HR/FB rate should bounce back as well.

Probable Pitchers

You don’t often see Rule 5 picks working out of the rotation. Having never made a start above Double-A, Dylan Covey has been called on six times this season and has had a rough go of it. He was originally drafted by the Oakland A’s and spent four years in their organization. He’s a ground ball specialist who relies on his sinker and his four-seam fastball. He has a few other secondary pitches but none of them are close to being major league quality. Without a consistent out pitch, his strikeout rate is predictably low as batters have been able to focus on his fastball. He did record nine strikeouts in his last outing against the Padres but that’s a huge outlier and not a sign of things to come.

Since his first full season in the majors in 2013, Jose Quintana has been the model of consistency. His ERA has sat between 3.20 and 3.51, his FIP has peaked at 3.82 but has fallen as low as 2.81, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio has been remarkably consistent, resting between 2.93 and 4.02. This year, that consistency has taken a bit of a hit. Most of Quintana’s peripherals are in line with his career norms, except for his walk rate. It’s spiked to 10.9% and it’s the culprit behind many of his problems this year. I can’t see a smoking gun in his plate discipline stats so it’s possible that the razor thin margin for success is tipping the batter’s way for Quintana. He probably won’t be a White Sox the next time the Mariners face them.

Somehow, Mike Pelfrey is still throwing agonizingly bad innings for a major league team in 2017. He doesn’t strike anyone out and he doesn’t have great command. His one redeeming quality is his ability to generate ground balls but even that skill has eroded. He’s the perfect innings eater for a White Sox team that is just waiting for the summer to call up their high-level prospects like Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech.

After a relatively successful return to health last season, Derek Holland latched on with the White Sox this offseason. He’s now three years removed from the freak knee injury that derailed his career but his skills have yet to return to their pre-injury levels. He’s lost some velocity off his fastball, but he’s seen his strikeout rate rise to 19.1% because he’s throwing his two breaking balls much more often this year. Both of those pitches generate above average whiff rates and he had been hesitant to throw them so often with the Rangers because of health issues. While his curveball and slider have helped boost his strikeout rate, a loss of command has also led to a spike in walk rate as well.

The Big Picture:

It seems like everyone else in the AL West is playing really well right now. The Astros demolished the Marlins in their three-game series in Miami, the Rangers won twice against the Phillies at home, and the Angels swept the White Sox. The Rangers wrap up their series against the Phillies today and then travel to Detroit over the weekend. The Astros and the Angels are off today preparing to face the Indians and the Mets, respectively. The Indians have continued to struggle this season, losing their second series in a row, this time to the Rays. The Red Sox won their brief series against the Cardinals and will travel to Oakland for a four-game series this weekend.