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The Go for Broke Off-season Plan


Shohei Ohtani is the key to the M's off-season. If they don't get him then it will be very difficult for them to legitimately compete for a World Series without everything breaking perfectly. As we know, everything generally does not break perfectly so banking on that is a poor plan. This article is not about supporting the thesis of Shohei being the key because there are other articles out there that already do that but that is the premise this is written under so if you disagree run far far away...

The team that signs Ohtani will undoubtedly offer him at-bats. How many at-bats we don't really know for sure but it will be hard to woo him without a guarantee of plate appearances and a clear plan for how he will get those plate appearances.

If an NL team decides to allow him to play OF two days a week then the rest of the league is screwed and I would like to very unhappily introduce you to Shohei Ohtani, the LA Dodger. People will say that it's too risky to allow him to play OF and it would be if you were paying him what he's worth but the unique thing about this situation is that you most certainly will not be paying him what he's worth. You will be paying him peanuts and for a team like the Dodgers who are not reliant on him to win in the short or long term, they can afford to deploy him in whatever way they want. If he gets hurt or fades at the end of the year they will still compete for a World Series. In other words, their success would not depend on the success or failure of Shohei Ohtani so they can afford to be a little more cavalier with his usage.

The Mariners are not in that space ship. They are in a much different, much less flashy, space ship that they bought off Craigslist on the cheap so they could do their own work on it in their backyard to try and fix it up. They hope that this space ship turns into the millennium falcon but it could easily turn into a less good bucket of bolts that can't even make the jump to hyper space. Shohei Ohtani is a crucial piece of their puzzle because he has a chance to significantly improve their rotation while costing very little money. Because he costs so little money he also allows them to spend to improve other areas of weakness (still SP, OF, still 1B, potentially the bullpen).

Okay, so Shohei is the key to a successful off-season if the team wants to contend (they clearly do based on their current words and actions) and getting him at-bats is the key to signing him. Great, we're an AL team so let's just let him DH 2-3 times a week when he's not pitching. Problem solved, Shohei is a Mariner, and the M's are now legitimate contenders in 2018 and in the future, right?

Obviously, we all see an issue with this. It's a very lovable issue who is very large and hits baseballs very hard and very far. It's Nelson Cruz.

Cruz has been anything but an issue in his M's career unless you have to pitch to him. In fact, he's been a godsend. He's been incredible as a player, person, teammate, and destroyer of pitchers everywhere. I was vocally against signing him in the first place and I could not be happier to be so completely and utterly wrong. But Ohtani is an asset that is young (23), seemingly very good, controllable, and can be had for a small amount of money. He is not only the key to the 2018 Mariners but he can be someone who is a building block of the 2019-2030 Mariners as well. Cruz has been fantastic and I love him. We all love him. But, we can't let one year of Cruz at DH be the reason that the Mariners are not able to woo Ohtani.

Now that I have enraged everyone and no one is paying attention, let's get to the plan!

Step 1. Trade Nelson Cruz to the Yankees for a "B" prospect

Nelson Cruz is making $14.25 million dollars this year and is strictly a DH. This means he can only be traded to an AL team that has money or an asset of comparable value that can be traded back. The Yankees DH options are projected to net -0.2 WAR in 2018 by Fangraphs which is second to last in the league beating out only the White Sox who are still trying to lose. New York has found themselves in a position to contend earlier than expected and should be willing to go for it again in 2018. Cruz slots right into their lineup and makes them significantly better with a WAR projection of 2.8 which may even be a bit low considering he hasn't had an fWAR of less than 3.7 since 2013. The Yankees have the payroll flexibility to take on his contract and because Cruz is a free agent at the end of the year, they can reap the benefits this year and then still have all the money they need to go after Harper or Machado next off-season.

I originally had the M's receiving Brett Gardner in this deal but I believe they would need to make this a salary dump to clear some space in order to spend this year. They can get a prospect in return but not a great one. The Yankees can afford to give up a good but not great prospect for a significant upgrade at DH in a year where they can make another big run as they have one of the top 3 farm systems in all of baseball. As for which prospect, I have no idea. It's exceptionally difficult to guess on hypothetical trades for prospects but New York has 11 pitchers in their top 16 prospects on MLB.com. Give me one of those guys.

Step 2. Lure Ohtani with DH Plate Appearances

With Cruz gone and DH open the Mariners can offer Ohtani 2-3 days a week of DH duty with a completely clear conscience. We know he wants to hit and all indications are that Jerry really wants him in a Mariner uniform. Getting a couple of opportunities a week to DH could very well be the lynch pin that helps seal the deal.

Ohtani playing OF in a Mariner uniform is much riskier than it would be if he were in a Dodger uniform because the Mariners success would rely on him in 2018 and beyond. Being able to give him opportunities at DH is a significantly better option for managing his wear and tear and keeping him happy. If Cruz were on the roster with Ohtani then Nellie would be bumped to the OF or the bench in favor of Ohtani plate appearances. No one wants either of those things.

Step 3. Sign Yu Darvish for 6 years and $175 million dollars

Ohtani makes your rotation fine but Darvish makes it very good and as history has shown, you need a very good rotation to win in the playoffs unless your office is historically good and even then sometimes things don't work out. Their starting 5 would be Darvish, Paxton, Ohtani, Leake, Felix. That is a very good starting 5 and in the playoffs when you mostly use just 3 guys a trio of Darvish, Paxton, and Ohtani would be fantastic. This rotation with the lineup they would be able to roll out is a very good baseball team that still maintains a decent amount of depth. The contract could be back-loaded a bit so that the biggest payouts occur after Felix's contract expires in 2020. The average AAV is a little over $29 million but we'll give him $25 million in the first two years and payout $125 million in the last 4. This would mean Darvish and Cano's contracts would both expire after the 2023 season.

Step 4. Sign Carlos Santana for 3 years and $48 million dollars

I know, I know, spare me the "what about Ryon Healy!?!?" taeks. I realize that we already have him and they have come out and said he will be their 1B. That's fine, but this plan is what I believe should happen and trading Cruz leaves you with no DH for 3-4 days a week. Signing Santana would allow the M's to put Carlos at 1B and Healy at DH on the days that Ohtani is not the DH. Santana is significantly better than Ryon Healy is right now and would still be a fantastic addition. Moving Cruz opens up a spot for him in the lineup and pushes Healy out of an every day role which could be helpful for his continued development as a hitter as well. This also allows for a bit of a DH platoon between Healy and Ohtani who bat from opposite sides.

If Santana requires more than 3/48 or 3/48 ends up being too expensive then the backup plan would be to sign Eduardo Nunez to a deal for 3 years and $17 million dollars. He doesn't walk much but also doesn't strike out too much and has figured out how to do more damage with his contact. He has been worth more than 2 fWAR each of the last two years while playing almost everywhere on the diamond. Nunez would be a really valuable piece on this roster and the lower contract would allow for more flexibility elsewhere.

Conclusion

These moves plus arbitration negotiations would put the M's 2018 payroll at about $172 million dollars according to projections made by Baseball Prospectus. This is in line with the general feeling that the payroll will settle at around $175 million. They may be able to back-load the Santana contract as well which would save a couple more million in 2018-2019 and give them a tad bit more flexibility.

Trading Cruz is no one's favorite and it is painful to even think about. But, Ohtani has major ramifications potentially far beyond just the 2018 Mariners and sacrificing that potential for one year of Cruz at DH would be foolish in my opinion. The risk is obviously that Ohtani flames out when he gets to the MLB and this has all been for naught but even then, the Mariners aren't competing for a World Series in 2018 without him and all you would have missed out on is one year of Nelson Cruz.

This team would probably still need an outfielder and potentially another solid reliever which is where signing Nunez instead of Santana may make more sense. If the team is able to bump the payroll up to $180 million and/or dump Scrabble's $5.5 million dollars for a stick of gum then getting an outfielder and a reliever becomes more likely with plan A.