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If it all goes right/wrong: Texas Rangers edition

It’s already happened once, but life isn’t fair so it could happen again

Houston Astros v Texas Rangers Photo by Brandon Wade/Getty Images

If it all goes right for the Texas Rangers in 2017 they will play in 47 one-run games, and they will win 31 of those games.

If it all goes right for the Texas Rangers in 2017 they will break the MLB record for winning percentage in one-run games, besting the 2016 Texas Rangers’ .766 WP.

If it all goes right for the Texas Rangers in 2017 they will near, or match, or exceed, their obscene 2016 clutch score.

If it all goes right for the Texas Rangers in 2017 they will take their +8 run differential all the way to another disappointing postseason performance.

I don’t put much stock in luck. Why should I, when the only fortune-based thing I’ve won in over two decades was a gift certificate to an ice cream store in another state? So, in fairness to the Rangers, they weren’t just lucky last season. Their starting pitchers combined for 13.2 fWAR, which put them squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, so that wasn’t it. Their bullpen collectively earned 3.3 fWAR, which put them squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, so that wasn’t it. Their offense produced a collective 98 wRC+, which put them squarely in the middle of all MLB teams, so that wasn’t it. If you put any faith in defensive metrics their defense, according to Fangraphs, graded out to -7.9, which put them in the lower third of all MLB teams, so that wasn’t it...I seem to have lost my train of thought. What I’m trying to get at here is that, whether you believe the Rangers were lucky last season or not, their 2016 season was precisely what we facetiously write as the outcome of a predicted “if it all goes right” piece. They dealt with some injuries, and some poor production, sure, but they also ultimately overcame these frustrations and managed to win 95 games with a +8 run differential. That’s about as fantastical as these predictions can get.

If it all goes wrong for the Texas Rangers in 2017, the team will have health problems. Carlos Gomez will play like 2016 Houston Astro Carlos Gomez. Yu Darvish will twist his hand in just the wrong way while trying to open a pickle jar. There will be poor production overall, and a low-level run differential which would be reflected in a low-level win percentage.