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At a Glance:
Monday, September 19 | 7:10p PT |
||
Away Team |
vs. |
Home Team |
Marco Estrada |
Taijuan Walker |
|
49% |
51% |
|
Tuesday, September 20 | 7:10p PT |
||
Away Team |
vs. |
Home Team |
Blue Jays |
Mariners |
|
J.A. Happ |
Hisashi Iwakuma |
|
48% |
52% |
|
Wednesday, September 21 | 12:40p PT |
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Away Team |
vs. |
Home Team |
Blue Jays |
Mariners |
|
Aaron Sanchez |
Felix Hernandez |
|
49% |
51% |
*Game odds courtesy of FiveThirtyEight (Explainer)
Mariners |
Blue Jays |
Edge |
|
Batting (wRC+) |
107 |
102 |
Somehow us (park effects) |
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense) |
-26 |
+19 |
Yeah, not us |
Starting Pitching (FIP-) |
107 |
97 |
Still not us |
Bullpen (FIP-) |
97 |
91 |
This isn't going to end well |
Hello there; the Mariners don't suck, but they play a team that also doesn't suck for a chance to go to the playoffs. Life is awful. If the M's can't take two-of-three against the Jays, their playoff chances are effectively nil.
The Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays have been struggling recently. Their playoff odds were 95% as of August 29, but today they sit at 67%. At this point, they won't even host the one-game Wild Card play-in.
Key Players
Jose Bautista is pretty good, as is Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis, and Russell Martin. It's almost like this dumb Canadian team is super talented or something, and I blame socialized medicine.
Marco Estrada |
||||||||||
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
||||
157 |
22.5% |
8.9% |
10.8% |
33.7% |
3.78 |
4.29 |
Estrada works with a fastball-changeup combo and isn't afraid to attack the top of the zone. He'll groove one every once and awhile, which the Mariners will have to capitalize on.
J.A. Happ (aka Not Adrian Sampson) |
||||||||||
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
||||
176.1 |
21.2% |
7.4% |
12.4% |
41.9% |
3.27 |
4.02 |
Remember bad J.A. Happ? He's not that anymore.
Aaron Sanchez |
||||||||||
IP |
K% |
BB% |
HR/FB% |
GB% |
ERA |
FIP |
||||
173 |
19.6% |
7.7% |
11.6% |
55.9% |
3.17 |
3.60 |
Sanchez has figured out how to be a starter, and there was some mid-season Cy Young buzz surrounding him that has since largely flown away.
The Big Picture:
The AL West
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
88-62 |
58.7% |
-- |
Bastards |
|
Mariners |
79-70 |
53.0% |
8.5 |
Not ideal |
78-71 |
52.3% |
9.5 |
Heck ‘Em |
|
66-83 |
44.3% |
21.5 |
Not Important |
|
65-84 |
43.6% |
22.5 |
Ha! |
The Wild Card Race
Team |
W-L |
W% |
Games Behind |
Recent Form |
82-67 |
55.0% |
-- |
Cool |
|
Blue Jays |
81-68 |
54.4% |
-- |
Divebombing |
79-70 |
53.0% |
2.0 |
Rawr |
|
Mariners |
79-70 |
53.0% |
2.0 |
Bleh |
Astros |
78-71 |
52.3% |
3.0 |
Screwed Us |