Examining the Mariners remaining schedule

After this series with the Los Angeles Angels finishes, the Seattle Mariners will have 41 remaining games on the schedule. They will play 23 games at home and 18 games on the road.

They will play three games against the Brewers, three games against the Yankees, seven games against the Rangers, three games against the White Sox, six games against the Angels, six games against the Astros, three games against the Blue Jays, three games against the Twins and seven games against the Athletics.

Those teams average out (with the series against the A’s and Rangers weighted a bit more due to a four-game series) to a .487 record. So right off the bat, things are looking pretty decent for the Mariners.

But if we take a look at the home/road splits of each team they face, things start to look a bit better, sort of. Prior to games finish on Monday night, the average MLB team had a 31-27 record at home, and a 27-31 record on the road. In the chart below, each team's record listed corresponds with whether the Mariners play the team at home or the team's record at home.

Immediately, things look favorable for the Mariners. Of their 13 remaining series, eight of the series come against teams who perform worse than average at home or on the road. Four of those series are against teams that perform better than average at home or on the road. The remaining series is against the Astros who, currently, are exactly average on the road (of course).

The Mariners, for the record, are an above average team on both the road and at home, not by much, mind you, but slightly above average.

Unfortunately, for the Mariners, the schedule only remains slightly favorable towards the end. If the Mariners are going to stay in the playoff hunt, they will need to win their games early, especially in the next three series. After that, the Mariners will see the Rangers for two out of three series--crucial series--and potentially a time where the M's will need to build a bit of a buffer to absorb more losses than we would like to see. Or alternatively, they could sweep the Rangers and yay AL West.

But if it is coming down into crunch time and the Mariners are needing to pick up a game here and there, things will be more difficult. The Blue Jays are a great team, one of the best in the league, and the Astros have been phenomenal at home. Those two series are scattered among a road series with the Twins and at home against the A's.

The Mariners can make all of this a moot point and rip off another six game win streak, or they can do what they should do, and did for much of the beginning of the season, and win series. Either way, the damage needs to be done early on to establish a buffer, because the latter half of the remaining schedule has a few speed bumps in the way, which could permanently derail this playoff roller coaster.