Good morning, I am glad you all made it through the weekend's festivities. Perhaps you are coming down from the natural high of watching celebrities finally get a little bit of publicity. I know I am. The glitz and glamour of last night has left me void and wanting something somehow more extravagant than the golden statues handed out last evening for Film's best. Well, good news skiparoos. The Seattle Mariners are going to playoffs.
If that seems brash and brazen and made to make you stand up and shout, well, go for it. Go nuts. Because this morning the 2016 Fangraphs Cool Standings were released and everything's coming up Mariners. This may sound like rose-colored glasses from the man who famously wrote this piece in August of 2015 that the Mariners were going to the postseason, but you're dead wrong.
According to Cool Standings, the Seattle Mariners enter the 2016 season with 19% odds to win the AL West, second-best in the division behind the 52% odds given to the Houston Astros. What's more is that the M's are given 36% odds to simply make the playoffs, and judging by this odds-metric, would meet the Blue Jays (in Toronto) for the Wild Card game. According to pure Wild Card % odds, however, the Yankees are given a slight edge, meaning while Cool Standings sees the Yankees as more-likely contenders for the Wild Card, their playoff hopes are relatively more reliant on a Wild Card berth than the M's. The Mariners are given 2.5% odds to make the World Series, behind the Astros, Indians, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.
Cool Standings has the Red Sox taking the AL East and Indians taking the Central. Looking around the NL Division winners, you see the Mets, Cubs, and Dodgers all projected to take their respective crowns. The Cubs are given 83% odds to win the NL Central, but even more amazingly, 18% odds to make the World Series.
As you could have imagined, the projection system sees the NL as a feast and famine league, giving six teams 0.0% odds of making the World Series (that's a sad year in Atlanta, Phillie, Cinci, Milwaukee, Colorado, and San Diego). The AL looks more balanced, especially shown by the AL West, where four of the five teams are given over 10% odds to win the division, Oakland sits at 7%. The Rangers and Angels both sit essentially dead even at 10% apiece.
This should all be taken with that traditional grain of salt. Last year, the Mariners were projected to be much better than this year. Consensus and this projection would tell you that the team will be much better than last year's outcome. So what's the deal with projections? Can we trust them? Are robots convincing you of their use? It's hard to say. Personally, within the AL West, I'd flip the Angels and A's, consider Texas much more dangerous, and the Astros to be potential paper tigers. What's easy and plain and clear is that the Seattle Mariners are going to the playoffs.