National Love: 10/11 Open Games Thread

For those of you who stayed up last night to watch the Giants cobble together every scrap of #beliEVEN pixie dust and see Mike Montgomery hold San Francisco at bay for four innings, before finally succumbing in the bottom of the 13^th, I salute you. Like me you probably needed some extra coffee this morning. Make sure you don’t pop all that energy too early, because the post-lunch slump can be deadly, and you don’t want to sleep through today’s two potential elimination games.

Nationals at Dodgers (2-1 Nationals lead) – 2:00 PM PT

Facing elimination, the Dodgers will turn to their ace, Clayton Kershaw, on short rest. The Nationals will counter with a 23 year old former 1^st round pick, Joe Ross. Ross has been excellent this year, accruing more than 2 WAR in just over 100 IP. Ross, like his brother Tyson, relies heavily on a fastball, slider, changeup combo, but Joe leans almost exclusively on a sinker to avoid home runs, which he has done well. It seems likely, however, due to his youth, that his leash will be short. This series, despite its unfortunately early time slot for West Coast folk, has featured stars on all sides stepping up, and hopefully that will continue this afternoon.

FiveThirtyEight: 67% Dodgers win.

Cubs at Giants (2-1 Cubs lead) – 5:30 PM PT

Arrieta-Bumgarner gives way to Lackey-Moore, in a matchup of former AL East rivals. Matt Moore’s best season as a pro was in 2012, when John Lackey was sidelined with Tommy John surgery, but Moore has rekindled some of his magic this year with the Giants, working an array of offspeed and breaking pitches around the zone to keep hitters off balance. Lackey has, for his part, been one of the steadiest pitchers of this millennium, posting over 2.4 WAR in 10 of the 14 years he has thrown a pitch in the Major Leagues, and this season’s 3.1 WAR and 3.81 FIP in 188.1 IP is just another success for the 37 year old righty. He is also the worst.

FiveThirtyEight: 56% Cubs win.