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Playoff Watch Thread: 10/1

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With all these bird teams it's more like Roctober, am I right? ...sigh.

Toronto Blue Jays v Boston Red Sox
Fly, Papí, fly.
Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

For those of you who didn't hurl your computer out the window after that pun, welcome to MEANINGFUL OCTOBER BASEBALL DAYS™! A quick reminder that every one of these games today and tomorrow are free on MLBTV.com, as they attempt to repent for a year of llama ads and TOOMGIS.

Here’s where things stand right now.

Standings and playoff odds projections-wise, the M’s made another small jump last night.

Fangraphs

Hopefully this is not very tiny to view but I'm writing this on my phone so my apologies, but also it's 8 in the morning and I'm on a bus so maybe get off your high horse and freakin chill out for ONCE in your life, JFC.

*actual one hour nap*

You’re all wonderful, apologies. Let’s baseball, shall we?

Orioles at Yankees - 1:05 PM PT

Agent of Justice, Wade Miley has been beaten into cooperation by Mark Trumbo and the Orioles recently, shutting down his former team in Arizona. Today, for the Mariners to have a chance of catching the unscrupulous boys from Baltimore, Wade will have to make a stand. Yankees’ top prospect Luis Severino will oppose the O’s, with electric stuff including a high 90s fastball and a strong slider. He has not been lights out this year, mixing time in the bullpen and rotation, but has the repertoire to get K’s.

Today's Lineups

BALTIMORE ORIOLES NEW YORK YANKEES
Adam Jones - CF Brett Gardner - LF
Hyun Soo Kim - LF Aaron Hicks - CF
Manny Machado - 3B Starlin Castro - 2B
Mark Trumbo - DH Billy Butler - DH
Matt Wieters - C Mark Teixeira - 1B
Chris Davis - 1B Chase Headley - 3B
Jonathan Schoop - 2B Austin Romine - C
Michael Bourn - RF Tyler Austin - RF
J.J. Hardy - SS Ronald Torreyes - SS
Wade Miley - LHP Luis Severino - RHP

FiveThirtyEight Projection: 50% Yankees win.

MASN

100% Wade Miley win.

Tigers at Braves - 4:10 PM PT

Goddammit Braves. After getting mollywhopped in what was likely their best matchup of the series, Atlanta now will run out Aaron Blair, who... I don't want to say is bad, but definitely has pitched badly. Like... super-duper badly. Part of the Shelby Miller haul, the 24 year old has been worth -0.8 fWAR in 64 IP this year. That is the second worst production by a starting pitcher who has thrown at least 60 innings this year, narrowly outperforming James Shields, who has spread his collapse out over 174.2 innings. Jordan Zimmerman has not been great, and all it takes is Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Freddie Freeman to have one beautiful day, but this game does not inspire confidence.

Today's Lineups

DETROIT TIGERS ATLANTA BRAVES
Ian Kinsler - 2B Ender Inciarte - CF
Cameron Maybin - CF Adonis Garcia - 3B
Miguel Cabrera - 1B Freddie Freeman - 1B
J.D. Martinez - RF Matt Kemp - LF
Justin Upton - LF Nick Markakis - RF
Nick Castellanos - 3B Anthony Recker - C
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - C Jace Peterson - 2B
Jose Iglesias - SS Dansby Swanson - SS
Jordan Zimmermann - RHP Aaron Blair - RHP

FiveThirtyEight Projection: 41% Braves win.

Blue Jays at Red Sox - 4:10 PM PT

Love to Papí. Boston has been the only team to help the Mariners out in any way, and they will face another former M in their continuing quest for home field solidifying. JA Happ, who will now forever be referred to as ‘Former 20 game winner JA Happ’, will toe the rubber for Toronto. Eduardo Rodríguez will start for Boston. The 23 year-old Venezuelan lefty has been so-so this year, with an FIP- of 107. A left-hander facing Toronto’s righty-heavy lineup is worrisome in any situation, without the added Green Monster target practice possibilities. Boston may need to simply outslug Toronto.

Today's Lineups

TORONTO BLUE JAYS BOSTON RED SOX
Devon Travis - 2B Dustin Pedroia - 2B
Josh Donaldson - 3B Xander Bogaerts - SS
Edwin Encarnacion - 1B David Ortiz - DH
Jose Bautista - DH Mookie Betts - RF
Russell Martin - C Hanley Ramirez - 1B
Troy Tulowitzki - SS Chris Young - LF
Melvin Upton Jr. - LF Jackie Bradley - CF
Kevin Pillar - CF Aaron Hill - 3B
Ezequiel Carrera - RF Christian Vazquez - C
J.A. Happ - LHP Eduardo Rodriguez - LHP

FiveThirtyEight Projection: 55% Boston win.

Go folded slices of pizza. Go chowdah. Go peaches.

Go M’s.