Series Preview: Mariners (59-68) at White Sox (59-66)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Thursday, August 27	5:10 pm	Mariners	LHP Roenis Elias	White Sox	LHP Carlos Rodon
Friday, August 28	5:10 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker	White Sox	LHP John Danks
Saturday, August 29	4:10 pm	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma	White Sox	RHP Jeff Samardzija
Sunday, August 30	11:10 am	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	White Sox	LHP Jose Quintana

	Mariners	White Sox	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	99 (9th in AL)	89 (15th in AL)	Mariners
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-20.5 (12th)	-49.7 (15th)	Mariners
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	108 (10th)	88 (1st)	White Sox
Bullpen (FIP-)	108 (14th)	93 (7th)	White Sox

Didn't the Mariners just play these guys? In an odd, pseudo home-and-home series, the Mariners will face the White Sox three games after hosting them in Seattle. Roenis Elias rejoins the rotation in place of Vidal Nuno but the first two pitching matchups are the same as they were a few days ago. Luckily, the Mariners avoid running into Chris Sale again. Since facing the Mariners last, the White Sox position players have added 0.4 fWAR to their season total, bringing it over 2.0!

The White Sox:

The White Sox have fallen a half-game behind both the Tigers and the Indians in the race for the AL Central cellar. In the three game interlude between playing in Seattle and Chicago, the White Sox lost two of three to the Red Sox.

Key Players

1B Jose Abreu – Jose Abreu’s successful sophomore year has gone a bit under the radar. When compared to his incredible rookie year, it’s certainly a step back, but he’s continued to hit over thirty percent better than league average and is on pace to accumulate 4.0 fWAR. He isn’t hitting for as much power this year and he’s being more selective, cutting his swing rate in the zone by 10 points. He is making more contact outside the zone which is an odd combination with his newfound selectiveness. Until he begins to attack pitches in the zone again, he’ll probably be simply good rather than great.

CF Adam Eaton – It’s been a tale of two halves for Adam Eaton this year. He got off to a horrid start and didn’t turn it around until June and July. In those months, he hit seven home runs which is more than double his previous career high for a single year in the majors. With that newfound power, he’s also striking out much more often which has affected his ability to get on base as a leadoff hitter.

SS Alexei Ramirez – After amassing 16.6 fWAR during the previous five years, Alexei Ramirez has struggled through the worst season of his career this year. He’s been the worst shortstop in the AL, accumulating -0.7 fWAR for the White Sox. His BABIP is a career low .250 and that’s taken a toll on his overall offensive line. He’s always been an aggressive hitter but his in and out of zone contact rates are trending the wrong way—he’s making more contact outside the strike zone while missing more pitches inside the strike zone. His fielding ability has also deteriorated to below average levels.

Probable Pitchers

LHP Carlos Rodon
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
106 2/3	24.1%		12.3%	11.4%		46.5%	4.22		3.86
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
94.3 mph; 33.0%		93.7 mph; 26.9%			85.0 mph; 8.9%			87.6 mph; 31.1%

It’s been a quick trip through the White Sox organization to the major leagues for Carlos Rodon. He was the third overall pick in 2014 and made his debut less than a year later. He possesses a devastating slider and a decent fastball. Those two pitches form the basis of his arsenal but he needed an offspeed pitch to compliment them. He worked on a changeup in spring training but didn’t feel comfortable with the pitch until June. Now he’s throwing it around 10% of the time and it’s helped him increase his strikeout rate to over 20%. In his last start, Rodon allowed three runs in seven innings against the Mariners. He struck out eight, walked four, and gave up six hits and was in line for the loss until his offense bailed him out.

LHP John Danks
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
139 2/3	16.1%		7.2%		9.9%	38.2%		4.90		4.41
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
89.8 mph; 38.1%		89.9 mph; 8.5%		86.2 mph; 13.8%			81.2 mph; 28.6%		75.9 mph; 10.9%

John Danks is enjoying his best season since his shoulder injury in 2012. He was once a decent mid-rotation starter, accumulating almost 15 fWAR between 2008 and 2011. After returning from his injury, he’s been much less effective. His strikeout rate has fallen below average and batters have taken advantage of his mediocre stuff. His changeup is his best pitch but it’s done very little to mitigate the damage right-handed batters have done—righties are sporting a .363 wOBA against him this year. The Mariners destroyed Danks in his last start, scoring seven runs on eight hits and three walks before chasing him in the sixth.

RHP Jeff Samardzija
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
176 1/3	18.0%		5.0%		10.6%	40.4%		4.75		4.06
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Splitter		Slider
94.5 mph; 19.1%		95.1 mph; 22.3%		93.2 mph; 22.8%			85.4 mph; 12.7%		85.6 mph; 23.0%

Jeff Samardzija looked like he was on track to become the next pitcher to sign a nine-figure contract this offseason. Unfortunately, he’s suffered through the worst year of his career since becoming a full-time starter in 2012. He’s lost five points off his strikeout rate and it now sits well below 20%. More concerning is his batted ball profile; his groundball rate has dropped by 10 points. More fly balls has led to more dingers, exacerbating a problem he already had. He’s throwing his cutter more often at the expense of his sinker which could explain much of the shift in batted balls. The drop in strikeout rate seems to be linked to the ineffectiveness of his splitter. He was able to induce a huge amount of whiffs with that pitch until this year.

LHP Jose Quintana
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
166	20.2%		4.9%		8.2%	47.6%		3.63		3.14
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
92.1 mph; 38.1%		92.1 mph; 18.5%		90.6 mph; 4.5%			86.4 mph; 10.3%		80.7 mph; 28.3%

One of the most underrated pitchers in the American League has found a way to be even better this year. Jose Quintana doesn’t post extreme strikeout numbers but he does a very good job of limiting walks and induces ground balls at an above average rate. Those two skills have helped him post a FIP around 3.00 for the second consecutive season. He’s steadily increased the usage of his curveball over the years and it’s become his best secondary pitch. Quintana’s fastball has always been his best pitch and he’s commanding it better than ever before, cutting his walk rate to under five percent.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	71-57	.555	-	W-W-L-W-W
Rangers	64-61	.512	5.5	W-W-W-L-L
Angels	64-62	.508	6.0	L-L-L-W-L
Mariners	59-68	.465	11.5	L-W-L-W-W
Athletics	55-73	.430	16.0	L-W-W-L-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Yankees	69-57	.548	+4.0	W-L-W-L-L
Twins	65-61	.516	-	W-W-W-W-W
Rangers	64-61	.512	0.5	W-W-W-L-L
Angels	64-62	.508	1.0	L-L-L-W-L
Orioles	63-63	.500	2.0	L-L-L-L-W

The Twins have inserted themselves back into the playoff picture with a six-game winning streak. They swept the Orioles last weekend and are on the verge of sweeping the Rays. After wrapping up that current series today, they travel to Houston to face the Astros. Yankees just hosted the ‘Stros and lost two of three and have fallen two games behind the Jays. The Rangers’ hot streak was quelled by Toronto; they wrap up that series today and host the Orioles over the weekend.