Series Preview: Mariners (39-46) vs. Angels (46-38)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Thursday, July 9	7:10 pm	Angels	RHP Garrett Richards	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Friday, July 10	7:10 pm	Angels	LHP Hector Santiago	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery
Saturday, July 11	7:10 pm	Angels	LHP C.J. Wilson	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
Sunday, July 12	1:10 pm	Angels	LHP Andrew Heaney	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker

	Mariners	Angels	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	89 (14th in AL)	101 (7th in AL)	Angels
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-11.7 (9th)	3.6 (5th)	Angels
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	105 (9th)	106 (10th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	96 (9th)	86 (3rd)	Angels

With just four games left before the All-Star break and the Mariners’ season floundering seven games below .500, this series against the Angels seems like a make or break point for the team. A series win would put them five games under .500 which seems like a high point for this season. A split would just be more of the same:

Mariners W-L since that awful homestand: W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L-L-W-W-L-W-L-W-L

— Lookout Landing (@LookoutLanding) July 7, 2015

Tack on another W-L to the end of that string and you’ve got a remarkably—and consistently—mediocre team. Seriously, that win-loss record is full of oscillating disappointments and false starts. A series loss would be a dagger that would put the Mariners nine or eleven games below .500, essentially forcing the Mariners back into "playing for next year" mode.

The Angels:

Since airing out all of their internal squabbles and forcing Jerry Dipoto out of the front office, the Angels have gone 5-1, including their current 5-game winning streak. They’re now just a game and a half behind the Astros and lead the AL Wild Card race by half a game. They just recently swept the Rockies in Colorado and have scored 47 runs in just six games in July.

Key Players

CF Mike Trout – Mike Trout had what might have been his worst season as a major leaguer last year. He won the MVP award anyway. There’s no question that the Angels would look a lot worse without him in the lineup everyday. Trout is on pace for an 8.8 fWAR season and he’s continued to look like exactly the same player who has been the best in baseball for the last three years. He’s even cut his strikeout rate by three points, almost back to where it was for the first two years of his career. Other than that, he truly is the model of consistency.

1B Albert Pujols – I mentioned Pujols’ resurgence above but it bears repeating. He’s enjoying his highest offensive production since 2010 when he was still with the Cardinals. When he hits a fly ball, it leaves the yard almost a quarter of the time. And when he’s hitting almost half of his batted balls in the air, that leads to a ton of home runs. He isn’t selling out for power either. His strikeout rate is back under 10% and his walk rate has stabilized around 8%. It seems like he’s regained his hitting stroke after working through a number of injuries over the last few years.

2B Johnny Giavotella – Johnny Giavotella probably won’t be a decisive factor for the Angels this year. He will be replacing a player who averaged 3.4 fWAR over the last five years. He was able to win the starting gig this spring, kicking Josh Rutledge to Triple-A, and will look to build on a solid minor league track record. Giavotella has been one of the few bright spots on this team to start the year. He’s playing great defense at second while contributing a league average offensive line which makes him a valuable piece at a key position.

RF Kole Calhoun – Kole Calhoun accumulated 3.7 fWAR last year, making him one of the most valuable outfielders in the league. After a fast start to the season, he’s been mired in a prolonged slump for most of May and June. His power has almost completely disappeared during this slump and he’s just not making quality contact. His other peripherals are in line with his career norms which tells me he might be playing through an injury that’s affect his ability to drive the ball.

SS Erick Aybar – Last year, Erick Aybar posted his best fWAR total of his career. Much of that was due to elite defensive numbers per UZR. However, DRS thought he was just average defensively so his WAR total and his UZR numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Even if he’s just average defensively, a league average bat makes him an above average shortstop in this league.

LF Matt Joyce – Matt Joyce was acquired by the Angels this offseason to be inserted into their left field/designated hitter rotation. Since 2010, Joyce has quietly put up a wRC+ of 123 against right-handed pitching. He’s been heavily platooned during his career but that’s only increased his value. This year, he’s completely forgotten how to hit both righties and lefties. His BABIP is extremely low but he’s also sporting the lowest hard hit rate of his career.

3B David Freese – Since a wRC+ of 132 in his breakout year in 2012, David Freese’s offensive profile has settled in at around 6% above league average. He’s regained some of the power he hasn’t seen since that breakout year but that’s been offset by a dip in BABIP. Even though his ISO is at a three year high, he’s also putting the ball on the ground more often. Defensively, a horrendous 2013 where he was one of the worst third basemen in baseball seems more like an outlier now. He’s put together two years of average defense in LA and that’s helped him recover some of his overall value.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Garrett Richards
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
94	18.8%		8.7%	8.4%		54.7%	3.35		3.65
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Slider			Curveball
96.2 mph; 48.9%		96.3 mph; 13.5%			87.7 mph; 32.2%			79.4 mph; 5.4%

Garrett Richards had shown promise as a prospect and in limited time in the Majors so perhaps his breakout year last year shouldn’t be that much of a surprise. His incredible year last year was cut short by a nasty knee injury in August. He returned to the Angels ahead of schedule but his results haven’t returned to their otherworldly levels from last year. He’s throwing his four-seam fastball much more often, but despite that pitch’s above average whiff rate, he’s seen a drop in strikeout rate. He’s also seen a bump in walk rate. Even though his peripherals are trending the wrong way, Richards has continued to cause batters to generate weak contact against him—opposing batters have produced just a .098 ISO against him. As long as he’s avoiding hard contact, he should continue to find success.

LHP Hector Santiago
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
101 1/3	21.8%		8.2%		8.8%		29.8%		2.40		4.11
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
91.3 mph; 53.5%		91.5 mph; 5.2%		87.0 mph; 13.5%		83.6 mph; 15.9%		80.3 mph; 6.4%		75.6 mph; 5.5%

Hector Santiago has been able to outperform his FIP throughout his entire career—the difference between his career ERA and his career FIP is over one. An extreme fly ball profile has led to a dinger problem and he’s never had pinpoint control. He does just enough to prevent too many runs from scoring. This year, he’s been extremely lucky with a strand rate of almost 90% and a BABIP well below league average. That’s led to the largest difference in ERA and FIP among all starting pitchers in baseball. His ERA under 3 won’t last when his strand rate falls back towards league average and the hits start falling in. The last time he faced the Mariners, he held them to just one run in seven innings, striking out six, walking two, and allowing just three hits.

LHP C.J. Wilson
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
108 1/3	20.8%		7.6%		10.3%		44.4%		3.82		3.82
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
91.2 mph; 28.1%		91.0 mph; 26.1%		88.1 mph; 8.1%		85.7 mph; 15.0%		83.5 mph; 11.9%		78.0 mph; 10.8%

C.J. Wilson had his worst season as a starter last year. He posted five-year lows in strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate and accumulated just 0.9 fWAR for the Angels. He was unable, or unwilling, to find the zone and his walk rate spiked as batters just refused to swing at pitches outside the zone. He’s been able to rebound this year in large part because of the renewed effectiveness of his breaking balls. He’s generating an obscene amount of whiffs with both his slider and his curveball as well as his cutter. Batters are swinging at his pitches outside the zone again and that plays right into his strategy. He’s faced the Mariners twice this year and has allowed just two runs in 15 innings against them.

LHP Andrew Heaney
IP	K%	BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA	FIP
20 1/3	22.4%	4.0%		10.5%	42.9%		1.77	3.13
Pitches
Sinker			Changeup			Curveball
92.2 mph; 68.7%			83.4 mph; 14.6%			80.1 mph; 16.8%

Andrew Heaney was acquired from the Dodgers, from the Marlins, for Howie Kendrick. He was able to taste the majors last year in limited time with Miami. He showed good control but was knocked around by batters and looked overmatched. The Angels called him up at the end of June when Jered Weaver went down with an injury and he’s shown why he was rated their best prospect this offseason. He’s still limiting walks but he’s added more strikeouts this time around. He’s also been the beneficiary of a 91.6% strand rate which will certainly come down. Still, with three above average pitches, he has the skills and ability to stick in a major league rotation.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	49-38	.563	-	L-L-W-L-L
Angels	46-38	.548	1.5	W-W-W-W-W
Rangers	41-44	.482	7.0	L-L-L-L-L
Mariners	39-46	.459	9.0	L-W-L-W-L
Athletics	39-48	.448	10.0	L-W-L-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	46-38	.548	+0.5	W-W-W-W-W
Twins	46-39	.541	-	W-L-W-W-W
Tigers	43-41	.512	2.5	W-L-W-L-W
Orioles	43-42	.506	3.0	L-W-L-L-L
Blue Jays	44-43	.506	3.0	L-W-L-W-L

After a mini hot streak, the Astros have now lost four of their last five and have let the Angels climb to within striking distance of the division lead. They’re wrapping up a four-game series against the Indians today and then traveling to Tampa to face the Rays. The Rangers continue their free fall and are only two games ahead of the Mariners; they head into the break with three games against the Padres. In the battle for the second Wild Card spot, the Twins decisively defeated the Orioles by sweeping their three game series. Outside of the Yankees, the entire AL East has been fairly mediocre with three teams hovering around .500, just outside the Wild Card lead.