Series Preview: Mariners (38-44) vs. Tigers (41-40)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, July 6	7:10 pm	Tigers	RHP Alfredo Simon	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
Tuesday, July 7	7:10 pm	Tigers	LHP Kyle Ryan	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker
Wednesday, July 8	12:40 pm	Tigers	RHP Anibal Sanchez	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ

	Mariners	Tigers	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	88 (14th in AL)	111 (2nd in AL)	Tigers
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-15.5 (10th)	5.6 (3rd)	Tigers
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	101 (8th)	107 (11th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	100 (9th)	111 (12th)	Mariners

The Mariners ended up going 5-4 on their modest road trip after splitting their four-game series with the A’s. With a week left before the All-Star break, they return home for seven games against the Tigers and the Angels. Building some momentum with two series wins would be a great way to head into the second half. The team will be bolstered by the triumphant return of Hisashi Iwakuma to the rotation after missing the last two and a half months to injury.

Because of the strong play of both the Royals and the Twins, the Tigers find themselves in third place in the AL Central. At one point in the recent past, they had one of the most formidable starting rotations in baseball, but the loss of Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, and Rick Porcello has left that group a shell of its former self. Luckily for the Mariners, they’ll miss facing David Price during this series. He’s been the lone bright spot for the Tigers’ pitching staff this year.

The Tigers:

The Tigers had the second best record in baseball at the end of April but it’s been all downhill from there. They’ve gone 26-32 since then with a -22 run differential (the Mariners have gone 28-32, -23 in that same period). Unfortunately for the Tigers, things aren’t going to get any easier; they’ll be without Miguel Cabrera for six weeks after he strained a calf muscle on Friday. At this point in the season, teams are rapidly trying to figure out whether or not they’re actually contenders and the Tigers are going to be without their best player until well after the trade deadline.

Key Players

RF J.D. Martinez – With Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup, J.D. Martinez is now the most dangerous hitter for the Tigers. His story is pretty well known: an uninspiring debut with Houston led to a waiver wire pick up by the Tigers and a completely revamped swing leads to a 4.0 fWAR season last year. This year, he’s been even better. He’s already matched his home run total from last year and he’s on pace for a 5.8 fWAR season. He’s hitting more fly balls than ever before and they’re leaving the yard almost a quarter of the time. That home run rate is bound to drop but his transformation into a deadly power hitter is still one of the more remarkable stories in baseball.

DH Victor Martinez – Remember when it seemed like everyone thought the Mariners should sign Victor Martinez this offseason? A resurgence of his knee problems has taken a toll on his offensive production this year leading to a wRC+ of just 75. With balky knees, he hasn’t been able to drive the ball with authority and his power has been completely sapped. He’s been a bit better since returning from a month long DL stint in the middle of June, slashing .303/.343/.439 since June 19.

SS Jose Iglesias – A freak ankle injury caused Jose Iglesias to miss the entire 2014 season. He’s returned with a vengeance and has been the fourth most valuable shortstop in baseball this year, accumulating 2.0 fWAR over the first half of the season. He’s cut his strikeout rate by six points and has almost doubled his walk rate this year. His speed and a propensity to slap the ball around the field has led to a high BABIP and an offensive line that’s 13 percent better than league average. Defensively, he’s been the best shortstop in the league per UZR though DRS thinks he’s just barely above average.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Alfredo Simon
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
91 1/3	17.9%		7.7%		9.2%		42.6%		3.94		3.85
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Splitter		Changeup		Curveball
93.3 mph; 13.5%		93.5 mph; 32.5%		88.5 mph; 15.5%		85.2 mph; 32.6%		65.0 mph; 1.7%		76.5 mph; 4.1%

An odd thing happened to Alfredo Simon last year. He was able to make a successful transition from the bullpen to the rotation for the Reds. He had made 18 uninspiring starts for the Orioles much earlier in his career and he hadn’t been an effective starter since he was in the minors. His peripherals didn’t really match his ERA but he was effective enough to make 32 starts at the back of the Reds’ rotation. He was traded to the Tigers during the offseason and has continued to build on his unexpected success last year. A small bump in his strikeout rate and getting away from the Great American Ballpark has helped him drop his FIP under 4.00. He’s throwing his splitter much more often this year at the expense of his sinker. He treats it like a changeup, using it to keep lefties at bay. He’ll also mix in a cutter against right-handed batters and rarely throws a curveball and a floaty changeup.

LHP Kyle Ryan
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
27 2/3	12.7%		11.0%		15.6%	46.5%		4.55		5.76
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Slider
89.1 mph; 24.9%		87.9 mph; 28.6%		85.5 mph; 30.4%			82.8 mph; 9.4%		76.7 mph; 6.8%

Kyle Ryan was a twelfth round draft pick by the Tigers back in 2010. He’s slowly moved his way through their organization before jumping up three levels in 2014, culminating with his major league debut. He’s shown excellent control in the minors—a 5.6% career minor league walk rate—but doesn’t generate enough strikeouts to be a standout prospect. He has survived by limiting baserunners and generating an above average amount of grounders. He’s made four spot starts for the Tigers this year. He mainly relies on three types of fastballs—his cutter being the best of the bunch—and will also throw a changeup and a slider. Both of his offspeed pitches are below average and his future success will depend on his ability to harness those two pitches.

RHP Anibal Sanchez
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
112 1/3	21.8%		7.0%		14.9%		41.4%		4.65		4.27
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
92.6 mph; 41.1%		92.7 mph; 12.0%		90.2 mph; 3.4%		85.5 mph; 18.0%		87.0 mph; 16.9%		78.5 mph; 8.5%

Between 2010 and 2014, Anibal Sanchez accumulated the 10^th most fWAR (19.7) and his FIP (3.10) ranked 9^th among all starting pitchers in the majors. This year has been another story. Both his ERA and his FIP are over 4.00 and it’s mostly due to a huge spike in home run rate. He has generally been able to keep the ball in the yard in the past, but for some reason, batters are teeing off on him this year. It’s not just one pitch either as batters are sporting a much higher ISO on all of his pitches except his sinker. As a pitcher who combines a high rate of four-seam fastballs with a killer changeup, he’s running a significant reverse platoon split this year.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	48-36	.571	-	W-W-W-L-L
Angels	44-38	.537	3.0	W-L-W-W-W
Rangers	41-42	.494	6.5	L-W-L-L-L
Mariners	38-44	.463	9.0	W-L-W-L-W
Athletics	38-47	.447	10.5	W-W-L-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	44-38	.537	+1.0	W-L-W-W-W
Orioles	43-39	.524	-	W-L-L-L-W
Twins	43-39	.524	-	L-W-L-W-L
Rays	43-41	.512	1.0	L-L-L-L-W
Blue Jays	43-41	.512	1.0	W-L-L-L-W

After putting together a modest five-game winning streak, the Astros lost their last two games to the Red Sox; they’ll travel to Cleveland for four games to start the week. The Angels swept the Rangers over the weekend and are now the Wild Card leaders. They’ll fly to Colorado tomorrow to take on the NL West cellar dwellers. The Rangers are also off today and host the Diamondbacks beginning tomorrow. The Rays suffered through a seven-game losing streak that included back-to-back walk-off losses in New York before winning yesterday; now they have to face the best team in the league, the Royals. The Orioles and the Twins will face off for the second Wild Card spot beginning today.