Series Preview: Mariners (46-53) vs. Diamondbacks (46-51)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, July 27	7:10 pm	Diamondbacks	LHP Robbie Ray	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery
Tuesday, July 28	7:10 pm	Diamondbacks	RHP Zack Godley	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma
Wednesday, July 29	12:40 pm	Diamondbacks	LHP Patrick Corbin	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez

	Mariners	Diamondbacks	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	94 (11th in AL)	103 (5th in NL)	Diamondbacks
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-17.2 (10th)	28.9 (6th)	Diamondbacks
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	105 (9th)	113 (13th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	103 (9th)	97 (9th)	Diamondbacks

As the trade deadline quickly approaches, neither of these two teams look like they’ll be very active participants in the trade market. While the Mariners have most of the pieces in place for a run next year, the Diamondbacks seem to be playing over their heads this year. Many expected them to be the worst team in the NL West but they’ve hung around .500 for most of the season on the back of Paul Goldschmidt and a few of their young position players.

Here’s another team built from a similar mold as the Tigers and the Blue Jays—a good offense carrying a poor pitching staff. At the beginning of the year, their young pitching staff looked like it would be the team’s saving grace. Their front office had done an excellent job accumulating young starters who could contribute in the near future. Those ranks of promising arms have dwindled because of injury and ineffectiveness.

The Diamondbacks:

The Diamondbacks were hanging around .500 up until the All-Star break but a six-game losing streak has put a dampener on their hopes of making a playoff run this year. Their run differential is exactly even on the season. Since play resumed, they’re 4-6 and recently won three of four against the Brewers in Arizona. They’re eight and a half games back in the NL West and seven and a half games back in the Wild Card race.

Key Players

1B Paul Goldschmidt – Paul Goldschmidt was never a heralded prospect but his minor league career showed a batter who had some plate discipline and massive power. Since his major league debut in 2011, he’s been the sixth best hitter in baseball with a wRC+ of 150. His plate discipline has only gotten better and his walk rate has peaked at 18.4% this year. He’s also hitting for more power than ever before and continues to add value on the basepaths and in the field. In any other year, he might be the front runner for the MVP if it weren’t for a certain 22-year-old tearing up the senior circuit.

CF A.J. Pollock – A.J. Pollock is a player whose total value is greater than the sum of its parts. He has above average power, walks at a decent clip, and he doesn’t strikeout too much. He’s an excellent defender at a premium defensive position and knows how to swipe a bag with his legs. A jack-of-all-trades who has been the ninth best player in baseball by fWAR this year.

RF Yasmany Tomas – The beneficiary of the Cuban market bubble, Yasmany Tomas hasn’t yet lived up to the expensive contract the Diamondbacks handed him this offseason. Like many of his Cuban brethren, he brings an aggressive approach to the plate, swinging early and often. He was known for his raw power in the Cuban leagues but that hasn’t shown up in the majors yet. Instead, he’s been spraying line drives from foul line to foul line. There are some signs of improvement but it’s obvious he’s still adjusting to major league pitching.

Probable Pitchers

LHP Robbie Ray
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
59 2/3	20.6%		6.2%		2.7%	35.1%		2.72		2.63
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Changeup			Slider		Curveball
94.4 mph; 60.9%		93.0 mph; 12.4%		85.8 mph; 10.9%			83.5 mph; 13.8%		82.7 mph; 2.1%

The emergence of Robbie Ray has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondback’s pitching staff this year. In a brief stint in the bullpen last year, he added around two miles per hour to his average fastball velocity. That improvement has carried over to the rotation this year and, when paired with better control, has helped him increase his strikeout rate and lower his walk rate. Despite a very high fly ball rate, he’s been extremely lucky in keeping the ball in the park. His home run rate is the lowest in the majors, and considering his home park, he’s bound to see some regression.

RHP Zack Godley
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
6	33.3%		0.0%		0.0%	50.0%		0.00		1.23
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
93.2 mph; 5.7%		92.4 mph; 12.5%		91.8 mph; 59.1%			82.8 mph; 10.2%		81.7 mph; 12.5%

Zach Godley had pitched in just three games above High-A ball before making his major league debut last Thursday. He made a spot start in place of the injured Chase Anderson and held the Brewers scoreless over six innings. Godley was originally drafted by the Cubs in the tenth round of the 2013 draft. He hasn’t made any appearances on any prospect lists and his minor league career has been pretty ordinary. He mainly relies on a cutter that sits in the low-90s and an average curve and changeup. He’ll be making another start for the pitching starved Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

LHP Patrick Corbin
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
22	25.8%		3.4%	23.8%		51.7%	3.68		4.61
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
93.4 mph; 35.5%		93.9 mph; 33.0%			82.9 mph; 8.5%			82.0 mph; 23.0%

After a promising year in 2013 where he posted a pitcher slash line of 3.41/3.43/3.48, Patrick Corbin was lost to the Tommy John monster during Spring Training the next year. A successful surgery and a long recovery later, he’s made his way back to the majors. He’s made four starts this year and his results have been promising. His average velocity hasn’t been affected by the injury and his command has been excellent so far.  He uses his fastball early in the count and relies on his slider as his outpitch. He’ll occasionally throw a changeup to righties to keep them honest.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	55-43	.561	-	W-L-L-L-W
Astros	55-45	.550	1.0	W-W-W-L-L
Rangers	47-50	.485	7.5	W-W-W-W-L
Mariners	46-53	.465	9.5	L-W-W-L-W
Athletics	44-56	.440	12.0	W-L-L-L-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	55-45	.550	+2.0	W-W-W-L-L
Twins	52-46	.531	-	L-W-W-L-L
Blue Jays	50-50	.500	3.0	L-W-L-W-L
Orioles	48-49	.495	3.5	L-L-L-W-W
Rays	49-51	.490	4.0	W-L-W-L-L

The Rangers were able to win two of three against the Angels this weekend but the Astros couldn’t take advantage as they lost two of three to the Royals. The top two teams in the AL West face off against each other in a critical three-game series starting tomorrow. The remnants of the AL East sit tightly packed together below the Twins and the Astros in the Wild Card race. None of these teams has been able to take advantage of the mediocre field, and with just a few days before the trade deadline, each of these teams are flip-flopping between selling and buying.