Series Preview: Mariners (44-52) vs. Blue Jays (49-48)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Friday, July 24	7:10 pm	Blue Jays	RHP Drew Hutchison	Mariners	RHP Felix Hernandez
Saturday, July 25	1:10 pm	Blue Jays	RHP Marco Estrada	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ
Sunday, July 26	1:10 pm	Blue Jays	LHP Mark Buehrle	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker

	Mariners	Blue Jays	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	92 (13th in AL)	113 (2nd in AL)	Blue Jays
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-16.8 (10th)	-12.2 (9th)	Blue Jays
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	105 (8th)	109 (12th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	102 (9th)	90 (6th)	Blue Jays

In many ways, the Blue Jays have done what the Mariners could not this year. On June 1, the Blue Jays were 23-29 and three and a half games out of first in the AL East. After losing the first game of a doubleheader on the 2^nd, the Blue Jays rattled off eleven games in a row to boost themselves over .500 and into the Wild Card discussion. It’s been almost a month since the Mariners have won multiple games in a row but they have a chance to break that streak tonight with Felix on the mound.

The Tigers and the Blue Jays are built very similarly. Both rely on a powerful offense to sustain their success but are undone by a weak pitching staff. With the trade deadline just a week away, the Blue Jays are desperately searching for some pitching reinforcements. They’ve scored the most runs in baseball and have the highest run differential in the AL, yet they’ve been stuck around .500 for most of the year.

The Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays’ offense has been much less potent on the road (.314 road wOBA vs. .361 home wOBA) which has led to a .420 Win% away from Rogers Centre. Since the All-Star break, they’re 4-2, beating the Rays and the Athletics in consecutive three-game series. They’re in second place in the AL East, five and a half games behind the Yankees, and are just three games behind the Twins in the Wild Card race. The Mariners won two of three in Toronto earlier this year, holding them to just 5 runs in their two wins.

Key Players

C Russell Martin – The Blue Jays signed Russell Martin to a five-year, $82 million contract as he approached his mid-30s. One might expect an incredulous response from the pundits when an aging catcher is signed for such a large amount over a long period of time. It’s a testament to Martin’s skills both behind the plate and beside the plate that this signing was generally viewed in a positive light. Over the last few years, he’s been rated as one of the best pitch framers in the game and his ability to work with a pitching staff is legendary. This year, his bat has out shone his glove; his 126 wRC+ is third among all catchers in the Majors.

RF Jose Bautista – Jose Bautista is 34-years-old this year and he hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. He’s still hitting for massive power and his walk rate has spiked to just over 17%! Some early season struggles caused his BABIP to drop to just .226 but mashing home runs and getting on base so much has helped him maintain a very good 141 wRC+.

3B Josh Donaldson – Josh Donaldson has enjoyed his move to Toronto so far. At home, he’s hitting a ridiculous .340/.380/.660 and that’s driven much of his overall offensive line so far. On the road, he’s been much more pedestrian with a .243/.327/.418 slash line. What’s most interesting about his home/away splits is his walk rate—it’s twice as high on the road than it is at home. Maybe he’s seeing the ball really well at home and is comfortable enough to swing early and often.

1B Edwin Encarnacion – Edwin Encarnacion has been bothered by a sore shoulder all season long and it’s taken a toll on his offensive production. He hasn’t been able to hit the ball with authority with much regularity. His BABIP is abnormally low at .230 and for an ISO of .223 is a four year low him. His hard hit rate has lost almost ten points and his contact rate has dropped as well. He’s still walking at a decent clip but his body just isn’t allowing him to be the powerful force he once was.

2B Devon Travis – Over the past five years, Blue Jays second basemen have been worth a combined 0.2 fWAR. In just 58 games this year, Devon Travis has been worth 2.1 fWAR—and he was out for more than a month with a shoulder injury. Before being injured, he was showing off some major power. Through April, he was leading all second basemen in ISO, wOBA, and fWAR. However, since returning from his injury, he hasn’t hit any homers and his ISO has fallen to .093. He’s still hitting well but it’s been mostly singles and doubles. Without the prodigious power, he may only be a league average hitter, which would still be a far cry from some of the second basemen the Blue Jays have thrown out there in the recent past.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Drew Hutchison
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
104	20.5%		7.0%	9.9%		40.3%	5.19		3.76
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker			Changeup			Slider
93.2 mph; 55.8%		92.7 mph; 10.1%			86.5 mph; 11.5%			85.3 mph; 22.6%

Drew Hutchison’s excellent second half last year gave us a glimpse at what he might look like if everything was clicking for him. After the All-Star break, he struck out almost 27% of batters and lowered his xFIP to 3.57. Despite the peripherals showing up, he was still the victim of poor luck—a high home run rate and poor sequencing led to the eighth highest ERA-FIP discrepancy last year. The difference between his ERA and his FIP is even more pronounced this year. A BABIP of .350 is outrageously high and both his slider and changeup have lost some of their effectiveness. He struggled with lower velocity on his pitches earlier this year which significantly affect his primary weapon, his fastball. Hutchison has also struggled mightily on the road—opposing batters are running a .431 wOBA against him while he’s pitching away from Rogers Centre.

RHP Marco Estrada
IP	K%		BB%	HR/FB%		GB%	ERA		FIP
95	19.0%		7.5%	7.2%		33.2%	3.22		3.85
Pitches
Four-seam		Cutter			Changeup			Curveball
90.2 mph; 49.4%		88.5 mph; 7.8%			79.7 mph; 30.2%			78.4 mph; 12.6%

The demotion of the struggling Daniel Norris opened up a spot in the rotation for Marco Estrada. While he was a Brewer, Estrada was able to put together two good seasons as a starter but things began to fall apart last year. His strikeout rate dropped, his normally excellent walk rate was up and he was seriously hurt by the homer. Dingers have been a problem for him for his entire career, but despite pitching in Rodgers Centre and the AL East, he’s been able to post the lowest home run rate of his career. That stems from a newfound ability to limit hard contact—he’s cut almost ten points off his hart hit rate and he now ranks 13^th in the majors in that category. He mainly relies on a decent four-seam fastball and a killer changeup. That pitch has allowed him to run a tiny platoon split over his career and maintain his high strikeout rate when moving back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. The last time he faced the Mariners, he gave up four runs in seven innings, including one homer to Nelson Cruz.

LHP Mark Buehrle
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
128 1/3	12.3%		3.8%		9.2%	49.2%		3.23		3.80
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
84.8 mph; 28.0%		84.7 mph; 21.9%		80.6 mph; 16.8%			79.9 mph; 25.3%		72.6 mph; 8.0%

Mark Buehrle has been the picture of consistency over his 16-year career in the Majors. Outside of his brief rookie year, he’s made at least 30 starts and pitched over 200 innings every single year he’s been in the Majors. What’s even more amazing is the consistency of his peripherals; you can count on a strikeout rate around 14%, a walk rate around 5.5%, and a ground ball rate around 45%. That’s an amazing feat in this era of volatility and injury. This year has been no different than any other year in his career. He’s well on his way towards 200 innings and his peripherals are well within career norms. It’s too bad Willie Bloomquist isn’t around to singlehandedly win a ballgame against Buehrle.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	54-41	.568	-	W-W-W-W-L
Astros	54-43	.557	1.0	L-W-W-W-W
Rangers	45-49	.479	8.5	W-L-L-W-W
Mariners	44-52	.458	10.5	L-L-W-L-W
Athletics	44-53	.454	11.0	W-W-L-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Astros	54-43	.557	+2.0	L-W-W-W-W
Twins	51-44	.537	-	L-L-L-L-W
Blue Jays	49-48	.505	3.0	L-W-W-L-W
Rays	48-49	.495	4.0	W-L-L-W-L
Tigers	47-48	.495	4.0	L-W-L-W-L

After falling to second place in the AL West just before the All-Star break, the Astros have put together a modest four-game winning streak and have won 5 of 6 since the start of the second half. They’ll face a tough challenge this weekend as they travel to Kansas City to face the best team in the AL. The Twins snapped the Angels’ seven-game winning streak and their own four-game losing streak by salvaging a win yesterday. The Angels host the Rangers over the weekend while the Twins return home to face the Yankees.