Series Preview: Mariners (42-50) at Tigers (45-46)

At a Glance:

Date	First Pitch	Away Team	Probable Pitcher	Home Team	Probable Pitcher
Monday, July 20	4:08 pm	Mariners	LHP J.A. Happ	Tigers	RHP Alfredo Simon
Tuesday, July 21	4:08 pm	Mariners	RHP Taijuan Walker	Tigers	RHP Shane Greene
Wednesday, July 22	4:08 pm	Mariners	LHP Mike Montgomery	Tigers	RHP Anibal Sanchez
Thursday, July 23	10:08 am	Mariners	RHP Hisashi Iwakuma	Tigers	LHP David Price

	Mariners	Tigers	Edge
Batting (wRC+)	91 (14th in AL)	113 (1st in AL)	Tigers
Fielding (FanGraphs Defense)	-16.4 (10th)	2.8 (4th)	Tigers
Starting Pitching (FIP-)	104 (9th)	108 (11th)	Mariners
Bullpen (FIP-)	101 (9th)	108 (12th)	Mariners

The Mariners are starting off the second half of the season with 20 straight games with a six-game homestand splitting two seven-game road trips. They wrap up the first of those road trips with a four-game series in Detroit. These two teams recently faced each other right before the All-Star break with the Tigers taking two of three in Seattle. J.A. Happ returns from his consensual exile today to fill out the starting rotation.

Since losing Miguel Cabrera to an ankle injury on July 3^rd, the Tigers have gone 5-7 and are now below .500 for the first time this season. Despite Cabrera’s absence, they’ve continued to score runs, averaging 5.1 runs per game in the twelve games since his injury. Their offense is now ranked first in the AL by wRC+. A pitching staff that is unable to curtail scoring has continued to be their Achilles heel; in those same twelve games, opponents have scored an average of 5.8 runs per game.

The Tigers:

Before the All-Star break, the Tigers fell to .500 after losing three of four to the Twins. They started off the second half with three games at home against the Orioles and lost two of three. They’re 10.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central and 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race.

Key Players

RF J.D. Martinez – With Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup, J.D. Martinez is now the most dangerous hitter for the Tigers. His story is pretty well known: an uninspiring debut with Houston led to a waiver wire pick up by the Tigers and a completely revamped swing leads to a 4.0 fWAR season last year. This year, he’s been even better. He’s already matched his home run total from last year and he’s on pace for a 5.8 fWAR season. He’s hitting more fly balls than ever before and they’re leaving the yard almost a quarter of the time. That home run rate is bound to drop but his transformation into a deadly power hitter is still one of the more remarkable stories in baseball.

DH Victor Martinez – Remember when it seemed like everyone thought the Mariners should sign Victor Martinez this offseason? A resurgence of his knee problems has taken a toll on his offensive production this year leading to a wRC+ of just 99 in the first half of the season. With balky knees, he hasn’t been able to drive the ball with authority and his power was absent early this year. He’s been much better since returning from a month long DL stint in the middle of June, slashing .330/.366/.557 since June 19.

SS Jose Iglesias – Stress fractures in both his shins caused Jose Iglesias to miss the entire 2014 season. He’s returned with a vengeance and has been the fourth most valuable shortstop in baseball this year, accumulating 2.0 fWAR over the first half of the season. He’s cut his strikeout rate by six points and has almost doubled his walk rate this year. His speed and a propensity to slap the ball around the field has led to a high BABIP and an offensive line that’s 13 percent better than league average. Defensively, he’s been the best shortstop in the league per UZR though DRS thinks he’s just barely above average.

LF Yoenis Cespedes – In just his fourth year in the majors, Yoenis Cespedes has made some significant changes to his batted ball profile which has helped him post his best offensive line since his rookie year. He’s hitting fewer fly balls and has cut his popup rate almost in half. Instead, he’s hitting more line drives and more grounders which has helped boost his BABIP to .341. Despite said improvements, he’s also walking at the lowest rate of his career while continuing to strikeout more than 20% of the time. Adam Jones has proven an aggressive plate approach can work but if Cespedes’ batted ball improvements slip, he could find his offensive profile looking more and more like his disappointing 2013-2014 seasons.

2B Ian Kinsler – Where has Ian Kinsler’s power gone? His .098 ISO is the lowest of his career and his home run rate is a miniscule 2.5%. His average batted ball distance has only fallen by three feet and his batted ball profile hasn’t drastically changed. He just isn’t hitting homers. His walk rate has rebounded back to his career norms and he’s hitting more line drives leading to a higher BABIP. But without the power he has been known for, his overall batting line is just league average.

Probable Pitchers

RHP Alfredo Simon
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
99 1/3	17.2%		7.6%		8.9%		41.1%		4.53		3.89
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Splitter		Curveball
93.4 mph; 14.1%		93.6 mph; 32.2%		88.6 mph; 15.6%		65.2 mph; 1.6%		85.2 mph; 32.4%		76.5 mph; 4.0%

An odd thing happened to Alfredo Simon last year. He was able to make a successful transition from the bullpen to the rotation for the Reds. He had made 18 uninspiring starts for the Orioles much earlier in his career and he hadn’t been an effective starter since he was in the minors. His peripherals didn’t really match his ERA but he was effective enough to make 32 starts at the back of the Reds’ rotation. He was traded to the Tigers during the offseason and has continued to build on his unexpected success last year. A small bump in his strikeout rate and getting away from the Great American Ballpark has helped him drop his FIP under 4.00. He’s throwing his splitter much more often this year at the expense of his sinker. He treats it like a changeup, using it to keep lefties at bay. He’ll also mix in a cutter against right-handed batters and rarely throws a curveball and a floaty changeup.

RHP Shane Greene
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
72 2/3	14.7%		7.0%		14.1%	43.6%		6.32		4.88
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Slider
93.7 mph; 12.4%		92.4 mph; 39.3%		87.2 mph; 27.2%			86.2 mph; 10.2%		80.1 mph; 10.3%

Shane Greene came out of nowhere to post a 3.78/3.73/3.40 pitcher slash line last year for the Yankees. He was able to strikeout more than a batter an inning and generated an above average amount of ground balls. He was traded to the Tigers this offseason and has not been able to carry over his success. The main culprit is his sinker; it’s just not an effective pitch yet he throws it almost 40% of the time. Opposing batters are hitting .376 off the pitch and have an ISO of .229. His four-seam fastball, which has a good amount of rise to it, is a much better pitch but he mainly uses it as an out pitch. His offspeed pitches aren’t anything to write home about either. Until he stops using his sinker, or figures out how to make it more effective, he won’t be much more than a replacement level pitcher with one plus pitch.

RHP Anibal Sanchez
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%		GB%		ERA		FIP
124 2/3	21.1%		7.5%		13.6%		40.1%		4.55		4.26
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter		Changeup		Slider		Curveball
92.5 mph; 40.7%		92.7 mph; 12.8%		90.0 mph; 4.6%		85.4 mph; 17.4%		86.9 mph; 16.4%		78.4 mph; 8.1%

Between 2010 and 2014, Anibal Sanchez accumulated the 10^th most fWAR (19.7) and his FIP (3.10) ranked 9^th among all starting pitchers in the majors. This year has been another story. Both his ERA and his FIP are over 4.00 and it’s mostly due to a huge spike in home run rate. He has generally been able to keep the ball in the yard in the past, but for some reason, batters are teeing off on him this year. It’s not just one pitch either as batters are sporting a much higher ISO on all of his pitches except his sinker. As a pitcher who combines a high rate of four-seam fastballs with a killer changeup, he’s running a significant reverse platoon split this year.

LHP David Price
IP	K%		BB%		HR/FB%	GB%		ERA		FIP
132	23.7%		4.8%		7.5%	39.2%		2.32		2.78
Pitches
Four-seam		Sinker		Cutter			Changeup		Curveball
94.8 mph; 35.8%		94.6 mph; 22.9%		89.0 mph; 11.1%			85.9 mph; 21.0%		80.1 mph; 9.2%

David Price has been the lone beacon of light on a pitching staff full of black holes. Since his debut, his FIP has continually trended downward as he has harnessed his control. He throws one of the best fastballs in the game, generating a huge amount of whiffs with it and everything else in his arsenal works off of it. His curveball has gained three inches of horizontal movement this year which has helped it become a more effective pitch. He also throws an above average changeup and a cutter. With such a fly ball heavy profile, he’s been lucky to keep his home run rate so low this year. He’s also run a small reverse platoon split over the last two years.

The Big Picture:

The AL West

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Angels	50-40	.556	-	W-L-W-W-W
Astros	51-43	.543	1.0	L-L-W-L-W
Rangers	43-48	.473	7.5	L-L-L-W-L
Athletics	43-51	.457	9.0	W-W-L-W-W
Mariners	42-50	.457	9.0	W-L-L-W-L

The Wild Card Race

Team	W-L	W%	Games Behind	Recent Form
Twins	50-42	.543	-	W-W-W-L-L
Astros	51-43	.543	-	L-L-W-L-W
Orioles	46-45	.505	3.5	L-L-L-W-W
Rays	47-47	.500	4.0	W-W-L-W-L
Blue Jays	47-47	.500	4.0	W-L-W-L-W

The Angels continue to tighten their grip on the AL West with two wins against Boston over the weekend. After a rainout yesterday, they’ll play a doubleheader today before hosting the Twins for three games. The Red Sox will move on to play the Astros, who were able to salvage their weekend series against the Rangers with a 10-0 win yesterday. The Athletics moved into fourth place in the AL West after taking two of three from the Twins over the weekend; they’ll host the Blue Jays to start the week.